{"id":25349,"date":"2016-03-18T11:00:49","date_gmt":"2016-03-18T00:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=25349"},"modified":"2016-03-15T10:11:15","modified_gmt":"2016-03-14T23:11:15","slug":"the-mosul-dam-iraqs-forgotten-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-mosul-dam-iraqs-forgotten-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"The Mosul Dam: Iraq\u2019s forgotten crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

In late February the US Embassy in Baghdad released a <\/span>statement<\/span><\/a> warning that the Mosul Dam is at a \u2018a serious and unprecedented risk of catastrophic failure with little warning.\u2019 The Embassy confirmed that such an event would represent an unprecedented humanitarian and strategic crisis for Iraq. Speaking to the UN last week, <\/span>US Ambassador Samantha Power<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>warned Member States that they should be ready to help prevent \u2018a humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s concerning for a number of reasons. The Mosul dam, classified by the <\/span>US Army Corps of Engineers<\/span><\/a> as \u2018the most dangerous dam in the world,\u2019 was first constructed in the <\/span>1980s<\/span><\/a> and has been pumped full of <\/span>thousands of tons of grout<\/span><\/a> six days a week since to prevent the possibility of a breach. Over the years, there have been increasing calls for a new facility to be built amidst <\/span>worrying reports<\/span><\/a> concerning the dam\u2019s viability. The dam was briefly controlled by ISIS in 2014 before being retaken by Iraqi and Western forces in August 2014. Maintenance was disrupted during the period the dam was controlled by ISIS, which <\/span>reportedly<\/span><\/a> continued following its recapture as many workers refused to carry out repairs and regular work. With negotiations ongoing since last year, Italian company Trevi Group have <\/span>this month signed a contract <\/span><\/a>\u00a0with the Iraqi government to repair the dam, but a commencement date for the works is yet to be announced. The dam\u2019s precarious situation is growing increasingly urgent as predicted floods in Iraq this month and next are expected to significantly raise water levels, rendering the structure increasingly unstable. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

According to a <\/span>team of researchers<\/span><\/a> at the Lulea University of Technology in Sweden, and as noted by <\/span>Foreign Policy<\/span><\/a><\/em> a breach of the dam would lead to catastrophic consequences across many of Iraq\u2019s urban areas:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018Within about four hours, Mosul would be facing a wave of water almost 80 feet high; flooding would cover about 28 square miles. Within 22 hours, Saddam Hussein\u2019s hometown of Tikrit would be hit with a 50-foot wall of water. And within two days of a dam breach, Baghdad itself\u2014400 miles downriver\u2014would have 13 or so feet of water all over the center of the city, and flooding would cover more than 80 square miles around the capital.\u2019<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The humanitarian and civilian impact of this event would be devastating. A breach of the dam would flood <\/span>areas controlled<\/span><\/a> by both the Iraqi Government and ISIS. A collapse of the dam and the ensuing destruction would inhibit the ability of the Iraqi military to mount operations in the region. Civilians in areas controlled by ISIS mightn\u2019t have sufficient freedom of movement to avoid the floods, which will leave the elderly and disabled especially vulnerable in the absence of a government-facilitated evacuation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The expected <\/span>flooding<\/span><\/a> would also impact Baghdad Airport and affect the city\u2019s six million residents for months. The US Embassy, which has published a fact sheet detailing the likely impact of the dam\u2019s collapse, <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a> that up to 1.47 million Iraqis could be killed along the Tigris River, while two-thirds of Iraq\u2019s high-yielding wheat farmland in the Tigris River basin would be severely damaged.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such concerns are exacerbated by the presence of ISIS in the surrounding areas and in Mosul.\u00a0<\/span>US officials<\/span><\/a> indicated as recently as February that it was less than likely that any successful attempt to retake Mosul would conclude in 2016, with <\/span>one official positing<\/span><\/a> that it wouldn\u2019t be in the near term and \u2018certainly not this year.\u2019 Military strategist David Kilcullen maintained a similar view <\/span>here on The Strategist<\/em><\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The collapse of the Mosul dam would drastically impede the ability of both the Iraqi and international forces to base in the Iraqi capital and surrounding areas, currently fortified in anticipation of any ISIS offensive. Moreover, the fallout from potentially hundreds of thousands of people displaced\u2014in addition to the millions already affected by the fighting and instability\u2014would stretch the <\/span>humanitarian resources already in place<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

More than changing the terrain and inhibiting the ability of international forces to mount operations against ISIS, the dam\u2019s rupturing would place yet more pressure on the anti-ISIS coalition to contribute emergency aid beyond their existing humanitarian and military commitments. That\u2019s already a <\/span>highly contentious issue<\/span><\/a> in many domestic contexts, including here in Australia. The collapse of the Mosul dam would significantly alter the strategic environment and might spur countries to review their roles in Iraq.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a key source of <\/span>electricity and irrigation<\/span><\/a> for millions of Iraqis, the Dam has become an important symbol in the fight against ISIS. Having once captured the facility, the group could again seek to undermine repair efforts or use it to their advantage. Maintaining the operation and security of the dam at least in the short-term has become a strategic priority for Iraq and the international forces combating ISIS. Sustaining the dam\u2019s viability is crucial, so it\u2019s important that we secure ongoing and well-informed reports on its condition, along with updates as to the success of efforts to keep it out of ISIS\u2019s hands.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In late February the US Embassy in Baghdad released a statement warning that the Mosul Dam is at a \u2018a serious and unprecedented risk of catastrophic failure with little warning.\u2019 The Embassy confirmed that such …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":260,"featured_media":25352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[191,895,1656],"class_list":["post-25349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iraq","tag-islamic-state","tag-mosul-dam"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Mosul Dam: Iraq\u2019s forgotten crisis | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-mosul-dam-iraqs-forgotten-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta 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