{"id":25484,"date":"2016-03-22T13:33:38","date_gmt":"2016-03-22T02:33:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=25484"},"modified":"2016-03-22T11:32:07","modified_gmt":"2016-03-22T00:32:07","slug":"25484-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/25484-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Peace talks in Colombia: another U-turn?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"
\nSix months ago, when President Juan Manuel Santos<\/span> announced<\/span><\/a> with much fanfare that the Government and FARC had agreed to sign a final peace treaty on 23 March 2016, many in Colombia believed the current round of negotiations had reached a point of no return. Now there\u2019s growing doubt that the promised final settlement will be delivered this week.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the expectation that there will be big news on Wednesday, two weeks ago President Santos<\/span> said<\/span><\/a> that Colombia would not sign a \u2018bad peace deal\u2019 to meet the self imposed deadline. The date had been agreed upon by both the government and the insurgency in a bid to hasten negotiations. Yet following the President\u2019s comments, FARC leaders<\/span> claimed<\/span><\/a> that it would be impossible to sign an amicable agreement with the Colombian government by 23 March. Although both sides have agreed upon key components of the negotiation agenda, including justice for war crimes, rural reform, illicit drug trafficking and political participation for the FARC, some thorny issues still remain\u2014such as how to end the conflict, and the much anticipated conditions of rebel disarmament and demobilisation. For the FARC, terms of demobilisation that signify insurgent \u2018surrender\u2019 have contributed to their disapproval of the government\u2019s current proposal. As both parties agree the conditions aren\u2019t in place for reaching a final peace treaty, it\u2019s unclear when the pen will hit the paper.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is clear though, is that Santos has overcommitted and under-delivered towards an increasingly dissatisfied population. The Colombian people aren\u2019t happy with the way he is approaching the peace talks, nor running the country. No less than 64% of Colombians disapproved of the President\u2019s policies in the<\/span> first poll of 2016<\/span><\/a>. A recent economic slowdown has led to<\/span> skyrocketing food prices<\/span><\/a>; and a Tasmanian-like hydro-electric energy crisis has the country on the verge of<\/span> enforcing power blackouts<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gabriel Garc\u00eda M\u00e1rquez once wrote that \u2018in the end, it is impossible not to become what others believe you are.\u2019 Now that fractures within the Santos administration\u2019s approach are<\/span> coming to light<\/span><\/a>, the President shouldn\u2019t be surprised that missing the 23 March deadline may spell big trouble for his government. Colombian society has long been deeply sceptical of FARC\u2019s intentions to abandon the armed struggle. Perhaps rightly so, given that in the last round of negotiations under President Andres Pastrana, a<\/span> demobilisation zone<\/span><\/a> of 42000 square kilometres was granted to the guerrillas. The insurgency used the area\u2014roughly the size of Switzerland\u2014to not only negotiate, but also to recuperate, train and further mobilise. Not surprisingly,<\/span> \u2018Fed-up-with-Santos\u2019 strikes<\/span><\/a> are breaking out across the country, criticising the President for failing to keep his promises.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, government negotiators are working at full throttle to secure a deal, hoping an accord can still win popular approval and enhance the President\u2019s standing. But Colombians are increasingly sceptical of the government\u2019s capacity to lay the groundwork for a lasting peace.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s no secret that President Santos fiercest opponent, former Colombian President \u00c1lvaro Uribe, believes<\/span> Santos\u2019 peace process is \u2018a capitulation\u2019 to FARC<\/span><\/a>. It must be remembered that Santos\u2019 journey to the <\/span>Casa de Nari\u00f1o<\/span><\/i>\u2014the Presidential House\u2014wasn\u2019t exactly plain sailing. After losing the first round of the presidential election to Uribe\u2019s candidate\u2014Oscar Ivan Zuluaga\u2014Santos only beat Zuluaga by securing nearly 51 percent of a runoff vote. This left<\/span> the country divided<\/span><\/a> between Santos and Uribe\u2019s supporters. Bluntly put, the choice was between peace talks or more war, and peace talks won out.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although not mandatory under the Colombian constitution, President Santos<\/span> made clear<\/span><\/a> that ratification of the much-anticipated peace deal should involve direct citizen participation. Believing he enjoyed popular support, Santos opted for an all-or-nothing plebiscite rather than a section-by-section referendum to sanction the final peace settlement.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though only a \u2018yes\u2019 from 13% of registered voters will seal Santos\u2019 peace deal, with his overconfidence and under-delivery the question remains as to whether lasting peace in Colombia can realistically be achieved by the time Santos leaves office. With growing domestic issues putting pressure on Santos, this is looking increasingly unlikely. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Six months ago, when President Juan Manuel Santos announced with much fanfare that the Government and FARC had agreed to sign a final peace treaty on 23 March 2016, many in Colombia believed the current …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":292,"featured_media":25490,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1514,1515,1116],"class_list":["post-25484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-colombia","tag-farc","tag-insurgency"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPeace talks in Colombia: another U-turn? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/25484-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Peace talks in Colombia: another U-turn? 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