{"id":25830,"date":"2016-04-11T06:00:42","date_gmt":"2016-04-10T20:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=25830"},"modified":"2016-04-10T21:03:09","modified_gmt":"2016-04-10T11:03:09","slug":"the-defence-white-paper-politics-meets-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-defence-white-paper-politics-meets-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2016 Defence White Paper: politics meets strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"Canberra is where strategy and politics meet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Always to confer; occasionally to collide. Ever seeking conclusion\u2014ever settling for compromise.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the politics and strategy games, cooperation and clash are constant companions. And Canberra is where the strategy of politics convenes with the politics of strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Canberra was thus the natural venue in February for the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, to release the 2016 Defence White Paper\u2014although this column grumped about the symbolism of the presidential PM <\/span>snubbing Parliament<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>ASPI White Paper conference<\/span><\/a> aced the politico\u2013strategic symbolism last week by convening equidistant from the Parliament on Capital Hill and the Defence Department at Russell.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beyond the symbolism, mark it a brave effort to consider policy as politics prevails. Because Canberra is plunging towards a giant black hole where all matter\u2014policy, strategy, budget\u2014will be consumed and turned into politics.<\/span><\/p>\n

The pull of the black hole is immense when the most important day in Canberra\u2019s calendar\u2014the May Budget\u2014shapes as no more than a brief stop for the election express.<\/span><\/p>\n

The strategy of such politics is strange.<\/span><\/p>\n

Canberra lore decrees that governments should:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Never run a long election campaign.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Never hold an election in winter.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    That lore is the Canberra version of Field Marshal Montgomery\u2019s first two rules of war:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Do not march on Moscow.<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. Do not go fighting with your land armies in China. It is a vast country, with no clearly defined objectives.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      As Oz sets off on a long political march with rolling battles, Monty would reflect that the objective is clear but the route, terrain, tactics and weather are deeply problematic.<\/span><\/p>\n

      One unusual element of the trek is that on Defence, the Coalition government and Labor opposition are marching in step. Consensus is back in fashion.<\/span><\/p>\n

      ASPI\u2019s White Paper conference showcased a Coalition government and Labor busily agreeing.<\/span><\/p>\n

      After speeches by <\/span>the Defence Minister, Marise Payne<\/span><\/a>, and <\/span>Labor\u2019s shadow Defence Minister, Stephen Conroy<\/span><\/a>, a non-Oz participant expressed amazement at \u2018the love in the room.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

      One of Canberra\u2019s wise owls, Paul Dibb, told the conference: \u2018Thank God we now have a bipartisan approach\u2019. As a man with a deep knowledge of the entrails of the seven Defence White Papers since 1976, Dibb declared: \u2018This is the best Defence White Paper we have had.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

      The broad agreement of the Defence \u2018debate\u2019 bears little resemblance to the no-holds hack, kick and maul of the election black hole enveloping the rest of Canberra.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Much of Payne\u2019s speech could have been delivered by a Labor minister. Much of Conroy\u2019s effort could have been conveyed with conviction by a Lib.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The Liberal Defence Minister boasted of a shipbuilding industry policy that would gladden any democratic socialist: \u2018a new industrial landscape\u2019, \u2018a national enterprise\u2019 and \u2018a national endeavour\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Senator Payne promised certainty for workers and industry that in the past had been \u2018subject to the vagaries of elected governments.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

      The government that presided over the last rites of the Oz car industry has discovered the joys of industry policy for ships and subs.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Then the Labor frontbencher returned the favour by attacking the Tories from the right wing.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Stephen Conroy launched with lashings of praise for the US. The government\u2019s failing was to be soft and slow on the alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Australia, Conroy said, should be upping its efforts in the South China Sea, following the US lead. And the government was dilatory in not finalising the cost-sharing negotiations with the US for Northern Territory military facilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Conroy repeated Labor\u2019s full support for the White Paper funding decisions and 2% of GDP for Defence by 2020\u201321.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Showing huge chutzpah given Labor\u2019s performance in office from 2007\u201313, Conroy made his key spending criticism that the White Paper is \u2018fully costed not fully funded.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

      The consensus restoration process is nearly complete on the future submarine.<\/span><\/p>\n

      All the matter flowing towards the election black hole shows the government is about to join Labor in committing to build all 12 subs in Adelaide.<\/span><\/p>\n

      If there\u2019s no announcement before the federal election, SA will think the worst (Sub Dudded!) and vote accordingly. So an announcement there will be.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The proclamation will mean the sinking of the cheaper offshore-build options the Coalition entertained when taking office in 2013.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Politics drives the strategy and the looming election demands action. Now.<\/span><\/p>\n

      As an exercise in politics, South Australia has mounted a magnificent, sustained campaign. The Adelaide Advertiser newspaper has chronicled it with a dinkus headline: \u2018Battle for submarines\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

      No offshore option means the Advertiser can change its dinkus to \u2018Submarine Victory!\u2019 Or perhaps it could use, \u2018Politics meets strategy; politics wins.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

      The Adelaide announcement is set to arrive before the May budget.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Take a 50-50 bet that Malcolm Turnbull will go the whole way and announce the successful bidder as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The choice between Japan, France or Germany is just about made. Why not announce immediately?<\/span><\/p>\n

      Such a decision would be a big answer to all that damaging guff about Malcolm Turnbull never being able to make up his mind.<\/span><\/p>\n

      And if the Japanese have been as miserly in sharing information as it\u2019s rumoured, wager on a French or German victory.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Canberra is where strategy and politics meet. Always to confer; occasionally to collide. Ever seeking conclusion\u2014ever settling for compromise. In the politics and strategy games, cooperation and clash are constant companions. And Canberra is where …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":25833,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1636,1051,376,21],"class_list":["post-25830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-defence-white-paper-2016","tag-future-submarine-project","tag-politics","tag-strategy-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe 2016 Defence White Paper: politics meets strategy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-defence-white-paper-politics-meets-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The 2016 Defence White Paper: politics meets strategy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Canberra is where strategy and politics meet. 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