{"id":26230,"date":"2016-04-28T09:00:08","date_gmt":"2016-04-27T23:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=26230"},"modified":"2016-04-28T09:08:01","modified_gmt":"2016-04-27T23:08:01","slug":"frances-next-president","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/frances-next-president\/","title":{"rendered":"France\u2019s next President"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\nIn a little more than a year, the French will vote to elect their new president. It is, of course, far too early to make any predictions. If \u2018one week is a long time in politics,\u2019 as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is reported to have said, then a year is an eternity. And yet, given the high stakes of the outcome for France and Europe, a first assessment should be attempted.<\/span><\/p>\n

If opinion polls are to be believed, France\u2019s next president will not be Fran\u00e7ois Hollande or Nicolas Sarkozy, the two most recent holders of the office. Hollande is the incumbent, but his performance has been disappointing on nearly all fronts, especially when it comes to tackling unemployment. Sarkozy\u2019s chances are crippled by his unsavory character.<\/span><\/p>\n

The French president under the Fifth Republic is, in British terms, both monarch and prime minister. He holds symbolic as well as real powers. Sarkozy failed, above all, to incarnate the Republic with dignity; Hollande has failed in the realms of both incarnation and action. To put it bluntly, a man who was simply \u2018too much\u2019 was succeeded by one that was just \u2018not enough.\u2019 As a result of this tandem, badly needed structural reforms have been left undone or were implemented only when it was too late.<\/span><\/p>\n

The impact on Europe has been no less disappointing. Not since the end of Fran\u00e7ois Mitterrand\u2019s term in 1995 has there been a French president that is a match for a German chancellor. The resulting disequilibrium\u2014not enough France, and thus too much Germany\u2014has been one of the major political problems facing the European Union.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is hard not to attribute the divergence in the two countries\u2019 fortunes to the leadership they have experienced. In Germany, the reform-minded Gerhard Schr\u00f6der was succeeded by the courageous Angela Merkel. In France, by contrast, Jacques Chirac\u2019s globally passive leadership was followed by Sarkozy\u2019s energetic but ultimately disappointing single term in office and Hollande\u2019s irresolute, lackluster leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n

The majority of French voters believe that next year\u2019s election will be their last chance to regain control of their country\u2019s destiny, rekindle its influence in Europe, and forge a new sense of direction. The disagreement\u2014as in the United States\u2014is over what form the change should take. A dramatic division has emerged between reformists and radicals, between those who want to make deep changes from within the system and those\u2014<\/span><\/p>\n

on both the extreme right and the extreme left\u2014who want to change the system from the outside.<\/span><\/p>\n

The political atmosphere is dominated by two major developments. On one hand, Hollande\u2019s Socialist Party seems on the verge of political annihilation, much like the Republican Party in the US. On the other hand, the far-right National Front and its leader, Marine Le Pen, are enjoying a steady rise; polls give the party one-third popular support, the highest in the country, making it very likely that Le Pen will reach the second round of the presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fortunately, there seems to be a limit to the National Front\u2019s level of support. Whatever electoral strengths Le Pen in France or Donald Trump in the US may have, they will almost surely<\/span> fail in their quests<\/span><\/a> for their countries\u2019 highest offices. Populism may be on the rise, and elites may be deeply unpopular. But unless something terrible happens\u2014such as a series of spectacular terrorist attacks\u2014sanity will prevail on both sides of the Atlantic.<\/span><\/p>\n

So what does sanity look like in today\u2019s France? Aside from Le Pen, the two most popular figures on the right and the left are, respectively, the oldest and youngest potential candidates: Alain Jupp\u00e9, who served as Prime Minister under Chirac, and Emmanuel Macron, Hollande\u2019s Minister of Economy, Industry, and Digital Affairs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jupp\u00e9\u2019s ratings in opinion polls have been remarkably steady, and Macron\u2019s have been surprisingly high. It is easy to conclude that a significant majority of French voters would welcome a ticket with both of them on it\u2014the wise, experienced man with gravitas as President and his much younger colleague as Prime Minister. Indeed, the pair would constitute a formidable cross-generational, cross-party team that might finally be able to implement much-needed reforms.<\/span><\/p>\n

To be sure, a German-style grand coalition would not be in line with how politics is usually practiced in France, which is accustomed to a rigid left-right divide. Moreover, both men have rejected the idea of joining forces. But in politics, anything is possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s youth is a weakness, and he lacks the support of a party machine. Popularity is not the same thing as real political support, especially if your ambition is to rock the boat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jupp\u00e9\u2019s liabilities are very different. He is more adept at exercising power than he is at obtaining it. His natural shyness makes him seem distant, not unlike Hillary Clinton in the US. But he also has a unique advantage. Given his age\u2014he will be 72 next year\u2014he intends to run for one mandate only and does not have to think about his reelection. France may have already found its next president.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a little more than a year, the French will vote to elect their new president. It is, of course, far too early to make any predictions. 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