{"id":26675,"date":"2016-05-18T14:30:37","date_gmt":"2016-05-18T04:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=26675"},"modified":"2016-05-18T11:13:39","modified_gmt":"2016-05-18T01:13:39","slug":"mr-obama-goes-to-hiroshima","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/mr-obama-goes-to-hiroshima\/","title":{"rendered":"Mr Obama goes to Hiroshima"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

The White House<\/span> announced last week<\/span><\/a> that President Obama would visit Hiroshima later this month, making him the first US president to do so. He won\u2019t be apologising for the US\u2019s dropping of the atomic bomb, and<\/span> some reports<\/span><\/a> suggest he doesn\u2019t even plan on making a major address there. It\u2019s a case where Obama\u2019s damned if he does and damned if he doesn\u2019t, of course. If he doesn\u2019t make a major speech, commentators will see it as symptomatic of his continuing drift away from the anti-nuclear position he<\/span> outlined<\/span><\/a> in Prague in 2009. If he does, commentators will see the two speeches as the rhetorical bookends of an otherwise unremarkable legacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Actually, Obama\u2019s legacy isn\u2019t that underwhelming. He can point to a successful 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, a New START agreement with Russia, a nuclear deal with Iran, and a series of nuclear security summits. Yes, he has supported a modernisation program for US nuclear forces, but the US is virtually the last nuclear power out of the blocks on modernisation, not the first. As Robert Scher<\/span> recently noted<\/span><\/a>, the US now faces a situation where non-modernisation would leave it with \u2018a slow and unacceptable degradation in [its] ability to deter\u2019, facing off against other great powers which have already bitten the modernisation bullet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arms control champions have been pushing Obama to use the Hiroshima visit to commit the US to something substantial. Michael Krepon, for example, has argued in favour of Obama\u2019s going to Hiroshima,<\/span> but only if he seizes the opportunity to advance his anti-nuclear agenda<\/span><\/a>. Specifically, Krepon wants words and deeds that push for US ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. That\u2019s probably a bridge too far for Obama, who knows the groundwork hasn\u2019t yet been properly laid in the US Senate for ratification and who\u2019s conscious of just what a large\u2014and difficult\u2014nuclear agenda the incoming president will already confront.<\/span><\/p>\n

To get a feel for that agenda, have a look at<\/span> the videos of the panels<\/span><\/a> at the recent CSIS conference on US nuclear policy post-2016. Issues of deterrence, assurance, arms control, modernisation, money, and sustaining a bipartisan consensus on nuclear weapons policy, already seem likely to make the next president\u2019s job especially challenging in the nuclear field.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, a visit to Hiroshima can\u2019t help but be politically significant. It\u2019s not the same as visiting other cities destroyed by allied airpower in World War 2\u2014cities like Berlin, Dresden and Tokyo. As Krepon<\/span> argues<\/span><\/a>, \u2018Tokyo is remembered for the horror of a world war that was waged against cities and civilians as well as on battlefields. Hiroshima is remembered for the weapon used to destroy the city and the people living in it.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

John Kerry clearly found his visit<\/span> profoundly disturbing<\/span><\/a>. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the only two places on earth that provide first-hand evidence of the devastating effects that nuclear weapons have on cities, even using first-generation, primitive weapons. It\u2019s one thing for a policy-maker to know that they have such effects; another thing again to see them up close. The technical descriptions offered by reputable texts such as Samuel Glasstone and Philip Dolan\u2019s<\/span> The effects of nuclear weapons<\/span><\/i><\/a> are scientifically accurate but determinedly impersonal; Hiroshima colours those descriptions with names, familial and social ties, injuries and death.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japanese public opinion is split over the issue of whether the US president should be expected to apologise for the dropping of the bomb, but no more so than public opinion in most other countries. Indeed, a<\/span> recent poll<\/span><\/a> conducted by <\/span>The<\/span><\/i> Japan Times<\/span><\/i> found that almost 65% of Japanese respondents thought Obama should not apologise, but that he should commit to nuclear non-proliferation. Even that might be difficult to do in a way that would satisfy sceptical listeners. The president could, of course, reaffirm the US\u2019s commitment to the NPT, and to a vigorous counter-proliferation agenda, but he can\u2019t promise to forsake modernisation of the US arsenal.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s going to be a neat trick for Obama to ensure that his visit reflects <\/span>the strange duality of nuclear weapons: that they are both massively destructive and\u2014for now\u2014strategically irreplaceable. Since he\u2019s the bloke with the nuclear codes, his statements and reactions will be monitored more closely than Kerry\u2019s were. But Obama can be thankful for one of life\u2019s small mercies\u2014unlike Harry Truman, US presidents today aren\u2019t invited to cross the nuclear threshold by dropping nuclear weapons on cities. True, it\u2019s uncertain if escalation control will work in a nuclear conflict, but planners are smart enough to know it probably won\u2019t if the first round of warheads kill large numbers of civilians.<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The White House announced last week that President Obama would visit Hiroshima later this month, making him the first US president to do so. He won\u2019t be apologising for the US\u2019s dropping of the atomic …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":26679,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[176,135,172,85,356],"class_list":["post-26675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-barack-obama","tag-japan","tag-nuclear-security","tag-nuclear-test","tag-nuclear-weapons"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMr Obama goes to Hiroshima | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/mr-obama-goes-to-hiroshima\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mr Obama goes to Hiroshima | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The White House announced last week that President Obama would visit Hiroshima later this month, making him the first US president to do so. 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