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On 21 May, Mullah Mohammed Akhtar Mansour, leader of the Afghani Taliban, was assassinated by an American drone strike in Pakistan\u2019s Baluchistan province, just across the border with Afghanistan. Mullah Mansour\u2019s death was<\/span> announced by President Obama<\/span><\/a> during his visit to Vietnam. It\u2019s the<\/span> most successful American operation<\/span><\/a> in the region since the elimination of Osama Bin Laden five years ago. The political decapitation of the Afghan Taliban will have far-reaching consequences at three levels: on internal Taliban dynamics; on the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan; and on US\u2013Pakistan relations. Let me address those in that order.<\/span><\/p>\n On Monday the Taliban leadership met to start the process of choosing a new head. There\u2019s a sense that it\u2019s important a new leader be agreed to quickly to avoid<\/span> the long, acrimonious discussions that took place last year<\/span><\/a> to replace the previous leader, Mullah Omar.<\/span><\/p>\n Most experts would agree that the choice of a new leader will come down to three individuals. A favourite for the position is the<\/span> powerful Sirajuddin Haqqani<\/span><\/a>, at present one of the two deputy leaders and head of the notorious al-Qaeda-affiliated Haqqani network which has given so much grief to American and Coalition forces over the years\u2014<\/span>and still does<\/span><\/a>. Despite a<\/span> reputation for ruthlessness<\/span><\/a>, he was<\/span> instrumental in bringing together all the different Taliban factions<\/span><\/a> following the selection of Mullah Mansour as leader last year.<\/span> Haqqani has a US$5 million bounty<\/span><\/a> on his head.<\/span><\/p>\n Another candidate for the job is Haibatullah Akhundzada, the other deputy leader of the Taliban and a cleric. He comes from Kandahar, the birthplace of the Taliban, and<\/span> had the trust of the late Mullah Omar<\/span><\/a>. That gives him an edge over Haqqani, who comes from the eastern part of Afghanistan.<\/span><\/p>\n The third of the contenders is Mullah Omar\u2019s 27-year-old son, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob. He has already been a strong, charismatic and popular candidate during the last selection process\u2014and he was very unhappy that he didn\u2019t get the job the last time. Being the son of the founder of the Taliban gives him an edge and<\/span> some feel that he would be less of a divisive figure<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s difficult to assess with certainty so soon after the event what impact the removal of Mullah Mansour will have on the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan, specifically on the<\/span> talks convened by the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan<\/span><\/a> earlier this year. However, one thing is certain: given Mansour\u2019s active opposition to the talks, the peace process was going nowhere. So depending on his replacement, there may well be an opportunity to move those talks forward. That\u2019s why both President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah<\/span> welcomed the news of Mansour\u2019s death<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n If Mullah Yaqoob, who\u2019s<\/span> reportedly receptive to the talks<\/span><\/a>, becomes the new leader, then there may be a glimmer of hope that the peace process may move forward. However, if Haqqani is chosen, then we might as well forget the talks. It\u2019s important to remember that it\u2019s under Haqqani\u2019s critical leadership position in the Taliban that<\/span> there\u2019s been such a substantial increase in deadly attacks<\/span><\/a> in Kabul and elsewhere. And regardless of who eventually gets the top job, we can expect some nasty retaliatory terrorist acts in the near future to avenge the death of Mullah Mansour.<\/span><\/p>\n Importantly, even if a pro-talks leader emerges, it won\u2019t be easy to sell the idea of negotiations to the Taliban governors, leaders and commanders given how well the Taliban is doing on the battlefield; it\u2019s now in<\/span> control of at least one-fifth of Afghanistan<\/span><\/a>. Washington-based experts and analysts generally agree that there\u2019s little incentive for the Taliban to enter into negotiations with Kabul, at least at this time. However, one thing may nevertheless focus the Taliban\u2019s minds on that issue. The drone strike on Mullah Mansour has sent one clear message to whoever is the next Taliban leader: unless you enter peace negotiations in good faith, you will be fair game anywhere, anytime, with no place to hide\u2014including in Pakistan.<\/span><\/p>\n Third, it\u2019s obvious that the elimination of Mansour will have a major negative impact on an already fragile relationship between the US and Pakistan. Although Pakistani leaders should be pleased that the Taliban head has been removed from the equation\u2014given that the Pakistan military<\/span> announced publicly some two years ago<\/span><\/a> that <\/span>all<\/span><\/i> terrorists would be hunted down\u2014they would be fuming with rage. Mullah Mansour was always considered \u2018their\u2019 man and the lack of pre-warning before the attack would have upset them. Nevertheless, Pakistan\u2019s official reaction was relatively muted.<\/span><\/p>\n There was an unwritten agreement between Washington and Islamabad that the Taliban leadership was off limits, as were drone attacks in Baluchistan, where Taliban leadership had been given refuge by Pakistani authorities.<\/span> All previous drone attacks<\/span><\/a> (almost 400 of them) had all taken place in the tribal areas of Pakistan, north of Baluchistan. This is now off. The Obama administration has sent a clear message to military and civilian leaders in Pakistan that the US will no longer turn a blind eye to Islamabad providing safe havens to the Taliban and their fellow ideological travellers who threaten the lives of American and other Coalition forces in Afghanistan. Put differently, if in the future Islamabad doesn\u2019t put genuine pressure on the Taliban to come to the negotiating table, it could expect more of these sort of drone attacks on the Taliban leadership. Complaining about the violation of Pakistan\u2019s sovereignty,<\/span> as it did in this case<\/span><\/a>, would make no difference.<\/span><\/p>\n