{"id":26955,"date":"2016-06-03T12:30:15","date_gmt":"2016-06-03T02:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=26955"},"modified":"2016-06-02T15:52:39","modified_gmt":"2016-06-02T05:52:39","slug":"asia-jaw-jaw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/asia-jaw-jaw\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia does jaw-jaw"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Asia long ago took to heart Churchill\u2019s admonition that it\u2019s better to<\/span> jaw-jaw<\/span><\/a> than war-war.<\/span><\/p>\n A lot of talking goes on around here. And the jaw-jaw intensity has risen as Asia confronts a long slope that descends in the direction of war-war.<\/span><\/p>\n The big strategic trend story of recent years is the fear that the system isn\u2019t strong enough to handle<\/span> mounting pressures<\/span><\/a>, that the prospects for an Asian order are<\/span> fading not growing<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n As Ron Huisken argues in CSCAP\u2019s<\/span> 2016 Regional Security Outlook<\/span><\/a>, Asia\u2019s security order is eroding as military posturing and partnering intensifies:<\/span><\/p>\n \u2018The states of the region are still spending a lot of time in dialogue but along critical channels the degree of engagement, communication and understanding appears to have encountered sharply diminishing returns.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n The need is for smarter and better jaw-jaw. Yet in stating that aim, it\u2019s worth looking back at what jaw-jaw has achieved for Asia. The talking has delivered much, if not enough.<\/span><\/p>\n I am writing this in Kuala Lumpur at the 30th annual<\/span> Asia-Pacific Roundtable<\/span><\/a>, where Southeast Asia\u2019s strategic institutes do a distinctly ASEAN version of jaw-jaw.<\/span><\/p>\n Then it’s off to Singapore for the 15th annual<\/span> Asia Security Summit<\/span><\/a>, the Shangri-La Dialogue\u2014a Brit think tank partners with Singapore to talk war and peace in a hotel named after<\/span> Shangri-La<\/span><\/a>, a mythical, permanently happy land imagined in \u2018Lost Horizon.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n These are different jaw-jaw festivals that are deliberately twinned by calendar and geography; they chew through a lot of common territory.<\/span><\/p>\n The Roundtable is a classic Track Two strategic dialogue, while all those Defence Ministers at Shangri-La plough the hybrid called One-and-a-half Track.<\/span><\/p>\n Come look at what<\/span> 30 years of Roundtable jaw-jaw<\/span><\/a> has done. Malaysia\u2019s Institute of Strategic and International Studies proudly proclaims it \u2018the premier Track Two forum in the region\u2019; a fair call.<\/span><\/p>\n This lightning trip through the Roundtable decades will alight on a key personality, the ASEAN essence, an economic idea, the experience of the pariahs, and the ever-pressing need to build the architecture.<\/span><\/p>\n Looking back at Roundtable history means seeing the figure of its originating dynamo, the late and much missed Noordin Sopiee.<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s still a gap in the KL experience not to see Noordin looming up with that quiet grin, ready to explode on you the latest idea he\u2019s been dissecting.<\/span><\/p>\n Noordin was the classic jaw-jaw black-belt\u2014a passionate Malaysian equally committed to ASEAN, a nationalist who could be, at the same moment, both regionalist and internationalist. Noordin was ever nimble but his aim was constant.<\/span><\/p>\n The essence of the Roundtable is that it\u2019s ASEAN\u2019s take on what Asia means. You know the language. Everyone is invited for the journey, but ASEAN drives and ASEAN centrality is, well, central. This is Second Track done with ASEAN sauce: \u2018to brainstorm and share ideas…to network and develop trust and confidence…building relations with each other.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n An Australian master, Ross Garnaut, thinks the Roundtable\u2019s great contribution to economic thinking was to push and grow the concept of Open Regionalism. Asia could cut trade barriers without discrimination against outsiders\u2014the original faith expressed in the creation of APEC, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation.<\/span><\/p>\n