{"id":27114,"date":"2016-06-14T06:00:26","date_gmt":"2016-06-13T20:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=27114"},"modified":"2016-06-14T10:26:19","modified_gmt":"2016-06-14T00:26:19","slug":"trumps-alliance-doctrine-wont-pay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-alliance-doctrine-wont-pay\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s alliance doctrine: we won\u2019t pay"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

The threats to Asia\u2019s future peace of mind: China versus the US, the South China Sea, North Korea\u2014and then there\u2019s Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Donald is a powerful reminder of the fundamental duality in Asia\u2019s responses to the protections and pressures of the US.<\/span><\/p>\n

The constant questions about the strategic guarantor go to its strategic strength and the constancy of the guarantee. Trump gives those questions the shrillest edge.<\/span><\/p>\n

It can be maddening and galling and scary\u2014even for allies and quasi allies\u2014to be pushed around by the Americans. Maybe only one thing is worse\u2014if the Americans departed from Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

The greatest peacetime threat to the US alliance system in Asia will<\/span> come from the US itself<\/span><\/a>\u2014by <\/span>what it<\/span> demands or fails to deliver<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump encapsulates those conundrums in confronting ways.<\/span><\/p>\n

Being pushed or threatened by The Donald would be unpredictable and nerve-wracking. What sort of deals would he demand?<\/span><\/p>\n

The nightmare scenario is that Trump mightn\u2019t have an open mind about Asia, but an empty mind.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instinct can take you only so far. What if Trump gets a chance to act on his instinct that US alliances in Asia are all give and little get?<\/span><\/p>\n

The US presidential election has certainly changed the buzz at the annual strategic talkfests in<\/span> Kuala Lumpur and Singapore<\/span><\/a>. For the first time this decade, it wasn\u2019t all about China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Come coffee time, Trump is the top trending topic. Not only is Canberra barracking for<\/span> Hillary<\/span><\/a>, so is most of Asia. Even China can\u2019t decide whether to be delighted or alarmed.<\/span><\/p>\n

As an example of the cycle of negatives that have Asia in a spiral consider this: North Korea calls The Donald<\/span> wise and far sighted<\/span><\/a> even though he\u2019s promised to<\/span> take out<\/span><\/a> the North\u2019s nukes and make Kim Jong-un<\/span> disappear<\/span><\/a>. Oh, me. Oh, my. Oh, dear.<\/span><\/p>\n

The reassurance from slightly-embarrassed American wonks is that the US alliances in Asia are between states and governments, not an individual leader. True. But US presidents can make the weather.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Trump presidency would mean Australia faced a New York doctrine as consequential for our strategic thinking as Richard Nixon\u2019s Guam doctrine.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Nixon struggled to extract the US from Vietnam, he used a press conference in Guam to announce the terms of the dialogue he\u2019d been having with Kissinger. Henceforth, Nixon announced, US allies would have<\/span> primary responsibility<\/span><\/a> for their own defence.<\/span><\/p>\n

No longer would the US bear any burden or pay any price. Nixon didn\u2019t actually do that rebuttal of Kennedy\u2019s inaugural, but that was the message.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even Kissinger was surprised at Nixon doing it there and then. But the Guam Doctrine it became and it had a huge impact on Australian<\/span> thinking and planning.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Oz defence<\/span> \u2018self reliance\u2019<\/span><\/a> was born and has throbbed ever since, in word if not always in deed or dollars.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s New York doctrine would be delivered in dollar-speak\u2014Guam done from Gotham. Something like: \u2018We\u2019re broke. We won\u2019t pay. Now you pay.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Do the monologue in that NYC accent: Good luck South Korea\u201465 years is enough. Japan, you know you can afford it. What have the Philippines or Thailand done for us lately? And where is Australia exactly?<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim Beazley reckons that President Trump would force Australia to<\/span> redo<\/span><\/a> the 2016 Defence White Paper. In that urgent rewrite early next year, \u2018the strategic sections will look very different. We won\u2019t be able to make assumptions about American forward policy.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Peter Jennings thinks confronting The Donald in \u2018we won\u2019t pay\u2019 mode would force Australia to double defence spending from<\/span> 2%\u00a0to\u00a04%<\/span><\/a> of GDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now that really is dollar-speak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shift from the multi-billion dollar stratosphere to the \u2018small change\u2019 that has turned into a mammoth wrangle between Australia and the US\u2014the cost of new housing, toilets and sewerage to be used by the US Marines in the Northern Territory.<\/span><\/p>\n

The argument is over a sum of about US$150 million.<\/span><\/p>\n

The struggle\u2014the dunny deadlock\u2014has dragged on so long it has derailed the timeline for the US deployment, knocking sideways the key Australian element of the pivot.<\/span><\/p>\n

Not enough toilets mean the US is pushing back the schedule to double the annual rotation from the current 1,250 Marines to a 2,500-strong Marine Air Ground Task Force.<\/span><\/p>\n

Imagine President Trump\u2019s response to that briefing: \u2018They won\u2019t even pay for our guys to have a #@&!\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Segueing from toilets to trade, Trump has made trade deals so toxic for the Republicans that he\u2019s sinking the agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the TPP is to be ratified, it\u2019s up to President Obama to get the job done in the last days of this Congress; get it through in the lame duck days or see it treated as a dead duck.<\/span><\/p>\n

The trade toxins will take years to clear. The fast track authority for the TPP lasts six years, till 2021. That\u2019s both blessing and curse.<\/span><\/p>\n

Getting the TPP passed by Congress could end up being a job for the President elected in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

The impact of Trump. Even if he doesn\u2019t win\u2014as Asia fervently hopes.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The threats to Asia\u2019s future peace of mind: China versus the US, the South China Sea, North Korea\u2014and then there\u2019s Trump. The Donald is a powerful reminder of the fundamental duality in Asia\u2019s responses to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":27116,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[40,1428,31],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s alliance doctrine: we won\u2019t pay | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-alliance-doctrine-wont-pay\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s alliance doctrine: we won\u2019t pay | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The threats to Asia\u2019s future peace of mind: China versus the US, the South China Sea, North Korea\u2014and then there\u2019s Trump. 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