{"id":27329,"date":"2016-06-27T06:00:18","date_gmt":"2016-06-26T20:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=27329"},"modified":"2016-06-24T10:50:15","modified_gmt":"2016-06-24T00:50:15","slug":"indonesia-time-bomb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indonesia-time-bomb\/","title":{"rendered":"An Indonesia time-bomb"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

Deep into the Press Club foreign affairs debate a faint ticking started\u2014the hint of a time-bomb in Australia\u2013Indonesia relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Indonesia time-bomb wasn\u2019t directly mentioned, just hinted. That is apt because Australia\u2019s international relations have hardly been mentioned in this election.<\/span><\/p>\n

In that spirit, come to the Indonesia time-bomb after inspecting surface issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

Foreign affairs obviously matters in the Australian system. See the eminence of those doing foreign policy, even if it\u2019ll have minimal impact on Saturday\u2019s vote.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Liberal deputy leader is Foreign Minister while the Labor deputy leader is shadow Foreign Minister.<\/span><\/p>\n

The foreign affairs debate at the National Press Club last week was a contest between two women who\u2014in party hierarchy and seniority\u2014are one step away from being Prime Minister.<\/span><\/p>\n

Julie Bishop and Tanya Plibersek can warm their leadership ambitions by the bonfire Kevin Rudd lit under the hoodoo that you can\u2019t step from Foreign to be leader.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Kevin won leadership the first time from the shadow Foreign job and got his second go as leader after being shunted as Foreign Minister.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus died the tradition that Foreign was the consolation prize given deposed leaders such as Hayden and Downer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tony Abbott wants to create a new tradition\u2014the discarded leader gets Defence. If Malcolm Turnbull wins, the size of his majority will have a big say in whether he adopts this fresh custom.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turnbull could rule that a-win-is-a-win and act as he pleases (the usual Liberal way).<\/span><\/p>\n

Or he might bring Abbott inside the cabinet tent. Cue <\/span>The Godfather<\/span><\/i> music\u2026\u2019keep your friends close and your enemies closer\u2019\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

Majorities deliver power. The meaning of the mandate is less absolute. The voters decide and the winner can then devise and dispatch and deploy and divide the spoils.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whatever mandate Turnbull wins\u2014or Shorten snatches\u2014it\u2019ll have a domestic flavour. This has been an election about the<\/span> internals, not the international.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

The Press Club foreign affairs debate last week and the defence version the week before showed those areas won\u2019t decide the outcome.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bipartisanship reduces political brawling. Plibersek referred to Labor\u2019s broad agreement with the Liberals on the US alliance, international institutions and engagement with Asia. Bishop nodded the same way.<\/span><\/p>\n

What, then, separates the Libs and Labor in foreign policy?<\/span><\/p>\n

You\u2019ll not be surprised that on the answers from the two deputy leaders, Labor presents as the multilateralist\/internationalist, the Liberals as pragmatic realists.<\/span><\/p>\n

Plibersek\u2019s analysis:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018The greatest difference is in our approach to those problems without passports\u2014the big global issues that face us. Climate change, the movement of people, the rise of non-state actors, health pandemics in an increasingly interconnected world. We think that Australia\u2019s best chance of security and prosperity, too, is being part of a secure and prosperous world. And that requires us to be a good global citizen.\u2019<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Libs aren\u2019t going to let Labor own \u2018good international citizen\u2019, even if Gareth Evans has part copyright. Bishop said the Libs do good by being good at what they do:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018I believe the difference comes down to approach. There\u2019s a commendable level of bipartisanship in most areas of foreign policy. But it’s the difference in approach. Labor is very keen on White Papers and strategies but then not funding them and not delivering on them. It\u2019s all very well to have an Asian White Paper but then if you don\u2019t fund it and you don\u2019t deliver any outcomes, it\u2019s of no use. They had Defence White Papers but didn\u2019t ever fund them. So, as Sir Arthur Tange said, a strategy without funding is no strategy at all.\u2019<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Now to the Indonesia time-bomb. As so often, it arrives via East Timor. Poor Timor Leste – independence won at grievous cost yet still buffeted by the needs of two big neighbours.<\/span><\/p>\n

Plibersek announced in February that a Labor government would accept international arbitration over Australia\u2019s sea boundary\/resources dispute with Timor Leste.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the Press Club, Plibersek said Australia should do what it\u2019s urging China to do in the South China Sea\u2014abide by the decision of the International Court of Justice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Labor would ditch Canberra\u2019s stance that the existing bilateral treaty with Dili is generous and shouldn\u2019t be reopened.<\/span><\/p>\n

The stand rests on Australia\u2019s 2002 decision to withdraw from the maritime jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bishop told the Press Club: \u2018We should maintain our commitment to the existing treaty.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

Plibersek: \u2018We have decided it\u2019s time for this issue to be settled.’<\/span><\/p>\n

Bishop swiped Plibersek for not getting detailed briefings from Foreign Affairs before making the Timor change. Plibersek retorted that she was briefed and understood the issues.<\/span><\/p>\n

The to-and-fro about full knowledge is when that faint ticking started.<\/span><\/p>\n

Australia is being tough about Timor Leste\u2019s border so it doesn\u2019t set off the border time-bomb with Indonesia.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Australia accepts international arbitration because the existing Timor treaty is \u2018unfair\u2019, that opens the way for Indonesia to do the same.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jakarta has long maintained it was \u2018taken to the cleaners\u2019 by Australia in two<\/span> seabed boundary<\/span><\/a> agreements signed in 1971 and 1972.<\/span><\/p>\n

Those treaties divided ownership by referring to the continental shelf, drawing the boundary well north of the median line between the shores of Australia and Indonesia. More for Oz, less for Indonesia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since then, international law has embraced the median-line concept. In international arbitration today, Indonesia would expect to get a lot of what is currently Oz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tick…tick\u2026tick\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deep into the Press Club foreign affairs debate a faint ticking started\u2014the hint of a time-bomb in Australia\u2013Indonesia relations. The Indonesia time-bomb wasn\u2019t directly mentioned, just hinted. That is apt because Australia\u2019s international relations have …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":27330,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[89,83,285,8],"class_list":["post-27329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-dfat","tag-elections","tag-foreign-policy","tag-indonesia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAn Indonesia time-bomb | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indonesia-time-bomb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An Indonesia time-bomb | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Deep into the Press Club foreign affairs debate a faint ticking started\u2014the hint of a time-bomb in Australia\u2013Indonesia relations. 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