![\"Image](\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/8147134510_3888fbe057_z.jpg\" "\\"Image")
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Hillary Clinton began her campaign for the Democratic nomination for president as the undisputed favorite, but Bernie Sanders\u2014a self-avowed socialist\u2014proved\u00a0to be a significant challenge. \u00a0Donald Trump started his campaign for the Republican nomination as an entertaining underdog but rode a tidal wave of support to victory, including beating, early in the race, the odds-on favorite Jeb Bush. \u00a0What\u2019s going on in American politics?<\/span><\/p>\n I spent my career analysing the politics of other countries, so let me apply some of what I\u2019ve learned to my own country. \u00a0Based on my reading of US political polling and of the behavior of American voters themselves, I believe there are three significant dynamics underway in the US that\u2019ve come together to create this particularly unique moment in the history of American politics.<\/span><\/p>\n The first and most important dynamic is economic\u2014economic insecurity and inequality. \u00a0Inflation-adjusted incomes have fallen for the majority of households in America for a generation. \u00a0In a recent poll conducted by the US Federal Reserve Bank, nearly half of those surveyed don\u2019t know where they would get US$400 if they needed it in an emergency.<\/span><\/p>\n At the same time, the distribution of income has become much more unequal\u2014a significant deterioration over the last few decades. Income distribution in the US is now among the worst of developed countries. \u00a0It has fallen behind both China and India according to the World Bank.<\/span><\/p>\n Here\u2019s what\u2019s happening from an economist\u2019s point of view. \u00a0There\u2019s an excess demand for high skilled workers (too few of them) and an excess supply of unskilled workers (too many of them). \u00a0There are some 20 million people unemployed in the US, most of them unskilled. \u00a0And there are four million unfilled jobs, a majority of them requiring skilled workers. \u00a0This situation is driving down wages for unskilled workers and pushing up wages for skilled workers. \u00a0Why has that been happening? \u00a0Fairly simple. \u00a0The education system in America hasn\u2019t kept up with the rapid advances in technology and globalisation.<\/span><\/p>\n People on the losing end of that dynamic are deeply frustrated, and they spoke loudly during the primaries. \u00a0They voted for candidates who have advocated populist approaches to economic insecurity and income inequality. \u00a0They voted for Bernie Sanders, who essentially said he would take money from the rich and give it to the poor\u2014income redistribution. \u00a0Or they voted for Donald Trump, who said he would fix it by making better trade deals\u2014protectionism to keep jobs in the US. \u00a0Together, Sanders and Trump garnered nearly 45% of all the votes cast in the primaries.<\/span> \u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n The second dynamic, related to but also broader than the first, is a belief among a majority of voters that the political system has failed the country, that elected officials aren\u2019t coming together, compromising, and making decisions that move the US economy and society forward. \u00a0The last two complete sessions of the US Congress (2011\u20132012 and 2013\u20132014) enacted an average of 290 laws\u2014only one-third to one-half the productivity of earlier Congresses. \u00a0And the number of laws enacted for the current Congress (2015\u20132016) is running even lower. <\/span><\/p>\n Many voters simply don\u2019t believe that career politicians have delivered for the country. \u00a0It\u2019s this second dynamic that led so many voters to support non-establishment candidates in the primaries. \u00a0Of the 60 million votes cast in both the Democratic and Republican primaries, 35 million were cast for non-establishment candidates\u2014a whopping 58%.<\/span><\/p>\n The third dynamic is a fear among some uneducated white voters about the rapid growth in the share of minorities in the population and their growing role in American society<\/span>\u2014<\/span>best manifested by Barack Obama\u2019s election as president. \u00a0A 2014 study by researchers from Northwestern University found that the shrinking white majority in the country is of concern to many white Americans. \u00a0There\u2019s no doubt that Donald Trump\u2019s xenophobic rhetoric has attracted some of those voters.<\/span><\/p>\n As we enter the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton for the presidency, it\u2019s clear that Trump has the three dynamics on his side. \u00a0For her part, Clinton has on her side those Americans who are concerned about Trump\u2019s shoot-from-the-hip approach to issues and his condemnation of many groups in American society, the unavoidable by-product of his xenophobia. \u00a0She also has on her side those Americans\u2014both Democrat and Republican\u2014 who aren\u2019t swayed by the three dynamics and who believe her more pragmatic, centrist approach to issues will be best for the country.<\/span><\/p>\n The politics of 2016 America remind me of the politics of a good number of other countries that I\u2019ve watched over the years, where similar economic and political problems led voters to look for easy answers and led voters to support candidates with simplistic, populist messages. \u00a0The irony, of course, is that in the vast majority of those countries where populists have been elected\u2014Venezuela under Chavez and Zimbabwe under Mugabe come to mind\u2014the problems haven\u2019t been solved. \u00a0Indeed, they\u2019ve gotten worse. \u00a0In November, we\u2019ll see what direction Americans choose to go.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Hillary Clinton began her campaign for the Democratic nomination for president as the undisputed favorite, but Bernie Sanders\u2014a self-avowed socialist\u2014proved\u00a0to be a significant challenge. \u00a0Donald Trump started his campaign for the Republican nomination as an 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