{"id":27516,"date":"2016-07-08T06:00:39","date_gmt":"2016-07-07T20:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=27516"},"modified":"2016-07-11T11:35:39","modified_gmt":"2016-07-11T01:35:39","slug":"trump-and-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trump-and-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump and China"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The first question Chinese officials ask Americans when they come to Beijing these days has little to do with economic policy, or the South China Sea, or the particulars of global instability. They focus on Donald Trump, their queries filled with a mixture of astonishment and trepidation.<\/span><\/p>\n \u2018What about Donald Trump?\u2019 Liu He, the chief economic adviser to Xi Jinping, asked the entourage of Secretary of State, John Kerry, during their June meetings for the Security and Economic Dialogue, the prime venue for US\u2013China policy making.<\/span><\/p>\n \u2018Who are his advisers and what are his policies?\u2019 a senior Communist Party official asked Bonnie Glaser, a China specialist at CSIS, when she visited in early July.<\/span><\/p>\n In those encounters, there\u2019ve been no flippant comments by the Chinese favoring Trump. Second thoughts are in abundance. If any Chinese policy-makers favoured Trump in the early going, there\u2019s buyer\u2019s remorse now.<\/span><\/p>\n For a while<\/span>\u2014<\/span>as Trump ascended during the Republican primary season and decimated a big field of competitors<\/span>\u2014<\/span>he was viewed as not so bad, not so scary, and almost certainly preferable to Hillary Clinton.<\/span><\/p>\n There was admiration for his come-from-behind winning streak. He would modify his policies in office, he would have sensible advisers, he wouldn\u2019t dare start an all-out trade war, the Chinese said. And his bravado in insisting that during his presidency the United States would withdraw its troops from Japan and South Korea had great appeal to Chinese army officers. They chose to overlook the second part of Trump\u2019s plan\u2014that Japan and South Korea would be allowed to develop their own nuclear arsenals.<\/span><\/p>\n And there was an allure to Trump because he was a businessman. China could always do a business deal, according to this thinking. But most of all, Trump seemed an interesting prospect based on the fact he wasn\u2019t Hillary Clinton. In fact, he was the anti-Hillary.<\/span><\/p>\n Clinton has a special place in the pantheon of Chinese antipathies. She earned China\u2019s displeasure when she came to Beijing as First Lady in 1995 for a UN women\u2019s conference and declared that women\u2019s rights were human rights. Early on, as Secretary of State, she publicly called on China to stop its bullying tactics in the South China Sea. Much to Beijing\u2019s annoyance, she ordered a Chinese human rights activist, Chen Guangcheng, to be given shelter in the US embassy in 2012, and then personally negotiated his departure for the United States. She promoted the pivot to Asia, seen in China as a pure containment strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n \u2018Some people in China favor Trump over Hillary not because they like him, but because they dislike her\u2014she is regarded as ideologically biased against China and strategically hostile towards China,\u2019 said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at the Institute for International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.<\/span><\/p>\n \u2018Trump appears to be more focused on economic issues with China, which of course will cause troubles too. But economic friction is more manageable than political and strategic differences.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n But as Trump has been unmasked in the American press, the portrayals of his fraudulent business deals have made for second thoughts. His efforts to be more anti-China than Clinton are nerve-making for Chinese officials.<\/span><\/p>\n He calls China\u2019s unbalanced trade with the United States \u2018<\/span>the greatest theft in the history of the world<\/span><\/a>,\u2019 vowing to slap 45% tariffs on Chinese imports. Right there, Trump is challenging the pro-trade American economic orthodoxy that the Chinese count on.<\/span><\/p>\n Clinton has veered off the free trade path too, turning her back on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the key economic component to the Obama administration\u2019s pivot to Asia that she helped engineer.<\/span><\/p>\n But with the slowdown in the Chinese economy<\/span>\u2014<\/span>and fears of global instability in the wake of the upheavals in Europe<\/span>\u2014<\/span>Clinton, an experienced policymaker, is looking a surer bet to senior Chinese leaders.<\/span><\/p>\n