{"id":27565,"date":"2016-07-08T11:00:47","date_gmt":"2016-07-08T01:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=27565"},"modified":"2016-07-11T10:21:15","modified_gmt":"2016-07-11T00:21:15","slug":"afghanistan-obamas-last-reluctant-troop-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/afghanistan-obamas-last-reluctant-troop-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Afghanistan: Obama\u2019s last and reluctant troop decision"},"content":{"rendered":"
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President Obama, flanked by his Secretary of Defense\u2014Ashton Carter\u2014and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff\u2014General Joseph F. Dunford, Jr.\u2014<\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> at the White House on Wednesday 6 July his latest\u2014and last\u2014troop adjustment for Afghanistan.<\/span><\/p>\n According to the<\/span> last troop adjustment<\/span><\/a> in October 2015, the US planned to keep 9,800 troops in Afghanistan until the end of 2016, with that number to be reduced to 5,500 in January 2017. However, in light of the events on the ground\u2014where the \u2018security situation remains precarious\u2019, Obama has announced that the troop level would be kept at 8,400 until the end of his presidential term in late January 2017.<\/span><\/p>\n It was widely expected that the Obama administration would re-adjust upwards the number of troops to stay in 2017. During his Senate<\/span> confirmation<\/span><\/a> hearing in January 2016 as President Obama\u2019s nominee to become the new commander of US forces in Afghanistan, Lieutenant-General John Nicholson made it clear that the situation in the country could get worse if Washington drew down its forces too soon. President Obama confirmed that General Nicholson\u2019s recent confidential assessment of the situation in Afghanistan played an important part in his decision to again adjust the troop level.<\/span><\/p>\n The US troops in Afghanistan would continue the dual role they\u2019ve played since the major military withdrawal in December 2014; that is, training and advising the 350,000-strong Afghan security forces and supporting counterterrorism operations against al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. These US troops would be topped up by another 6,000 troops as part of NATO\u2019s Resolute Support mission. Those troop levels will be confirmed at<\/span> NATO\u2019s meeting in Warsaw<\/span><\/a> this week, which President Obama will be attending.<\/span><\/p>\n At the NATO meeting, the US and its allies will try to<\/span> raise US$15 billion<\/span><\/a> to fund the Afghan security forces until 2020. However, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan\u2014Ambassador Richard Olson\u2014noted in a<\/span> recent address<\/span><\/a> to the Washington-based Atlantic Council that NATO members couldn\u2019t be expected to fund Afghan\u2019s security forces indefinitely.<\/span><\/p>\n Accordingly, Ambassador Olson stressed that, because there was no military solution to the present conflict, it was important to get the reconciliation talks off the ground. He believed that the format established by the Quadrilateral Coordination Group\u2014the US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan\u2014was the most promising and useful framework to reach a peaceful political solution. And President Obama stressed during his<\/span> address<\/span><\/a> that there would only be a total drawdown of foreign troops after a final and permanent political agreement is reached between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban. Unfortunately, the Taliban has<\/span> shown no interest<\/span><\/a> in participating in peace talks.<\/span><\/p>\n Notwithstanding the spin the Obama administration puts on how much has been achieved in Afghanistan over the last 15 years, the bottom line is that the Taliban hasn\u2019t been defeated militarily. And that\u2019s not looking likely as long as they have safe havens across the border in Pakistan. Accordingly, the Taliban has little incentive to enter into peace talks.<\/span><\/p>\n Clearly referring to Pakistan, President Obama reiterated the importance of Afghanistan\u2019s neighbours to not provide\u00a0safe havens to the Taliban. That not-so-subtle reference to Islamabad is now much more powerful given the<\/span> recent elimination of the Taliban leader<\/span><\/a>, Mullah Mansour, in an American drone strike in Pakistan\u2019s Baluchistan province. That successful attack made it clear that Taliban leaders could no longer count on the safety of Pakistan. That option has now been closed off.<\/span><\/p>\n