{"id":27760,"date":"2016-07-19T13:30:35","date_gmt":"2016-07-19T03:30:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=27760"},"modified":"2016-07-19T11:51:37","modified_gmt":"2016-07-19T01:51:37","slug":"strategic-consequences-turkeys-failed-coup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/strategic-consequences-turkeys-failed-coup\/","title":{"rendered":"The strategic consequences of Turkey\u2019s failed coup"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

A military coup against an elected government typically unleashes a flood of analysis about the country\u2019s future direction following the break in democratic rule. But failed coups can be just as consequential. The<\/span> botched attempt<\/span><\/a> by elements of the Turkish military to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan will have far-ranging implications for Turkey\u2019s foreign relations and regional role. Turkey\u2019s relationship with the United States, in particular, is headed for considerable turbulence.<\/span><\/p>\n

The coup attempt heralds a new and uneasy phase in the Turkey-US relationship, because Turkish authorities have linked it to Fethullah G\u00fclen, an Islamic preacher based near Philadelphia since 1999 but with a core group of followers in Turkey.<\/span><\/p>\n

G\u00fclen was previously charged with establishing a parallel state structure primarily within the police, the judiciary, and the military. More recently, the Turkish authorities classified the G\u00fclen movement as a terrorist organization\u2014a label given new meaning by the failed coup. But, despite the growing evidence concerning G\u00fclen and his followers, the impression in Ankara is that the US has so far refused to constrain the activities of his network, which includes a range of schools and many civil-society organizations.<\/span><\/p>\n

This network allows the G\u00fclen movement to engage in substantial fundraising, which the authorities claim sustains the nefarious operations of its affiliates in Turkey. As a result, G\u00fclen\u2019s continued residence in Pennsylvania has become not only a contentious issue in the bilateral relationship, but also an important source of rising anti-Americanism in Turkey.<\/span><\/p>\n

The failed coup is set to compound this trend. In the post-coup era, the US will come under significant pressure to reconsider its laissez-faire attitude toward G\u00fclen. The Turkish side already has signaled that it will initiate a formal request for G\u00fclen\u2019s extradition.<\/span><\/p>\n

The coup has therefore brought a new urgency to the need for the two NATO allies to settle this important dispute. A failure to find common ground under these changed circumstances would weaken prospects for cooperation at many levels. The effectiveness of the joint fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), which relies heavily on air strikes originating from the Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey, would doubtless be jeopardized. More broadly, a breach in this key bilateral relationship would weaken NATO cohesion in its policy toward Russia, with Turkey seeking to move beyond the confrontational framework set out at the Alliance\u2019s recent<\/span> Warsaw summit<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The consequences of the failed coup are also likely to affect Turkey\u2019s relationship with Europe. In March, Turkey and the European Union agreed on an ambitious package of measures designed to stem the flow of refugees to Europe. But, while the arrangement has been a clear success, it remains politically vulnerable. For Turkey, the biggest prize was the EU\u2019s commitment to lifting visa restrictions on Turkish citizens traveling to the Schengen Area, a move scheduled for June. Instead, visa liberalization was postponed until October, owing to Turkey\u2019s refusal to comply with a few remaining conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the core of the diplomatic impasse is the EU\u2019s demand that Turkey<\/span> amend its anti-terror legislation<\/span><\/a> to ensure that it reflects more closely the norms established by the European Court of Human Rights. The aim is to limit the legislation\u2019s implementation to genuine terror cases and prevent its use as a tool to restrain freedom of expression. But the post-putsch environment will reduce the government\u2019s willingness to amend Turkey\u2019s anti-terror framework.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, a diplomatic crisis by October is likely, with Turkey claiming that the EU has failed to honor its commitments. The entire refugee package, under which Turkey continues to host more than 2.8 million Syrian refugees, could then come under threat, with consequences for the flow of asylum-seekers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, the botched coup will have repercussions on Turkey\u2019s ability to contribute to regional security. The Turkish military will now undergo a painful process of purging its G\u00fclenist elements, and morale and cohesion will inevitably be affected at a time when the armed forces play an instrumental role in Turkey\u2019s efforts to combat Kurdish separatists and ISIS terrorism and in strengthening Turkey\u2019s border controls, which has helped to impede the flow of foreign jihadists to ISIS-controlled territory in Syria. And weakened trust in the wake of the coup attempt will make interagency cooperation between the military, the police, and the intelligence services particularly problematic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Just like successful coups, failed coups can have a major impact on countries\u2019 foreign and security policies. Turkey\u2019s botched putsch has already heightened the likelihood that critical milestones soon will be reached in the country\u2019s relationship with the US and Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A military coup against an elected government typically unleashes a flood of analysis about the country\u2019s future direction following the break in democratic rule. But failed coups can be just as consequential. The botched attempt …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":538,"featured_media":27762,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[266,261,747],"class_list":["post-27760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-coup-detat","tag-nato","tag-turkey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe strategic consequences of Turkey\u2019s failed coup | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/strategic-consequences-turkeys-failed-coup\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The strategic consequences of Turkey\u2019s failed coup | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A military coup against an elected government typically unleashes a flood of analysis about the country\u2019s future direction following the break in democratic rule. 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