{"id":27890,"date":"2016-07-28T06:00:15","date_gmt":"2016-07-27T20:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=27890"},"modified":"2016-07-26T12:26:38","modified_gmt":"2016-07-26T02:26:38","slug":"reverse-engineering-australias-fms-requests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/reverse-engineering-australias-fms-requests\/","title":{"rendered":"Reverse engineering Australia’s FMS requests"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Edited<\/p>\n

On 31 May, yet another<\/span> Australian FMS purchase approval<\/span><\/a> was listed on the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) website. This new sale is for \u2018<\/span>up to eighty (80) Standard Missiles, SM-2 Block IIIB<\/span><\/a>\u2019, as well as associated engineering and support equipment, at an estimated value of US$301 million. It comes hot on the heels of<\/span> two recent Australian FMS approvals<\/span><\/a>, for \u2018<\/span>up to 2,950<\/span><\/a>\u2019 GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb I (SDB-I \u2013 US$386m) and \u2018<\/span>up to 450<\/span><\/a>\u2019 AIM-120D air-to-air missiles (US$1.22b).<\/span><\/p>\n

We’d like to understand the rationale for Australia’s requests, but we haven’t got much to work with. The Defence Department’s publications are light on details, so we have to rely on data we get from the American side via DSCA. Australia’s disclosure contrasts markedly with the open and transparent American acquisition process. We’re left with an incomplete picture, but here are our best guesses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let’s start with ‘why SDB-I and why so many’? The USAF budget last took delivery of SDB-Is in FY2011, with a cumulative total of<\/span> 12,300 weapons delivered<\/span><\/a> (PDF). The USAF operates a total of 1,419 SDB-I capable tactical aircraft (<\/span>219 F-15E<\/span><\/a>;<\/span> 183 F-22A<\/span><\/a>;<\/span> 1,017 F-16C\/D<\/span><\/a>) and 82 bombers (<\/span>62 B-1B<\/span><\/a> and<\/span> 20 B-2A<\/span><\/a>), and it’s soon to be integrated onto the F-35A. Other than<\/span> two F-35s<\/span><\/a> in the test pool in the US, Australia has zero such aircraft, which will be the case until<\/span> at least 2021<\/span><\/a>, when the RAAF\u2019s first F-35As are scheduled to reach initial operational capability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the much more capable<\/span> GBU-53 SDB-II<\/span><\/a> is slated for integration onto all of the USAF\u2019s SDB-I-compatible aircraft, and the USN is aiming to integrate it onto the<\/span> F-35B, F-35C and Super Hornet<\/span><\/a>. The RAAF has<\/span> 24 Super Hornets<\/span><\/a> and, if the USN\u2019s integration efforts are<\/span> completed by 2019 as scheduled<\/span><\/a>, they\u2019d be able to field SDB-II two years before their F-35As can field SDB-I.<\/span><\/p>\n

SDB-I is cheaper than the SDB-II (US$40k versus US$122k), but that\u2019s an insufficient reason for Australia to buy a less capable and less compatible weapon. It seems an odd decision to seek approval for so many lower capability bombs, and we fully expect a later request for SDB-IIs, but there\u2019s no way to fully understand Defence\u2019s rationale from the information we have.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible that only a fraction of the approved number will actually be acquired, as the approved number is only an upper bound, and that the initial purchase will be a small number for testing. Some might be acquired later as gapfillers until SDB-II integration onto the F-35 is completed, currently<\/span> scheduled for 2022<\/span><\/a>, and the weapon is cleared for foreign sales.<\/span><\/p>\n

Similarly<\/span> we’re not sure why we need more SM-2s. The USN bought its last eight SM-2 Block IIIB naval surface-to-air missiles (the same missile FMS approved for Australia)<\/span> in FY2011<\/span><\/a> (PDF), although the production line has been reopened for foreign customers. The USN is now focused on purchasing the newer SM-6 Block I. The SM-6 has greater speed, range and accuracy than the SM-2, and was identified by Australia at least as far back as<\/span> 2009 White Paper<\/span><\/a> (PDF) as the preferred weapon for our AWDs. We fully expect a purchase of SM-6 at some future time.<\/span><\/p>\n

It’s true that the SM-2 is cheaper than the SM-6 (roughly US$1.4 vs. $3.9 million), but Defence has an even more cost effective option: upgrade and reuse the SM-2s they\u2019ve already got. In 2005, Australia sought FMS approval for up to<\/span> 175 SM-2 Block IIIA<\/span><\/a> missiles (US$315 in then-year dollars). We don’t know (and Defence doesn\u2019t disclose) how many missiles were actually acquired. They<\/span> have shelf-lives<\/span><\/a>, so it\u2019s unclear how many operational weapons remain, but the USN’s still fielding<\/span> 25 year old<\/span><\/a> SM-2s, so Australia\u2019s much newer missiles should have years of life left.<\/span><\/p>\n

The AWDs\u2019 vertical launch systems have 48 missile cells each, with a mixed loadout of SM-2s and other missiles. We know that Defence is modifying its stock of SM-2s for AWD use under project<\/span> SEA 4000 Phase 3.2<\/span><\/a>, at a projected cost of A$110 million (of which roughly A$66 million<\/span> has already been spent<\/span><\/a> (PDF)) but we have no indication of numbers. If the full approval of 175 SM-2s was acquired after the 2005 approval, and the RAN receives 80 new missiles, they should have more than 250 SM-2s in total\u2014enough to completely fill five to six AWDs, even though they\u2019re only getting three.<\/span><\/p>\n

So we can make some reasonable inferences, but overall we’re a bit stumped. Extra war stocks are useful in extended hostilities, but having the newest and best capability in the first place is probably a lot more useful. There might be good reasons why Defence has sought approval for less-capable weapons, but that hasn’t been explained. Given the Australian government\u2019s plan to increase Defence spending to<\/span> 2% of GDP by 2020\u201321<\/span><\/a>, the recent trend towards less and lower quality public information is disappointing.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 31 May, yet another Australian FMS purchase approval was listed on the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) website. This new sale is for \u2018up to eighty (80) Standard Missiles, SM-2 Block IIIB\u2019, as …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":27891,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[23,134,1202,31],"class_list":["post-27890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-defence-economics","tag-foreign-military-sales","tag-missile-defence","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nReverse engineering Australia's FMS requests | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/reverse-engineering-australias-fms-requests\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reverse engineering Australia's FMS requests | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On 31 May, yet another Australian FMS purchase approval was listed on the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) website. 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