{"id":27983,"date":"2016-08-01T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2016-08-01T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=27983"},"modified":"2016-08-01T14:25:32","modified_gmt":"2016-08-01T04:25:32","slug":"giving-china-ladder-climb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/giving-china-ladder-climb\/","title":{"rendered":"Giving China a ladder to climb down"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Mark<\/p>\n

The 12 July judgment <\/a>by the Hague-based Arbitral Tribunal on the South China Sea constituted a near-total defeat for China. While it was widely expected that the Philippines would win, it wasn\u2019t expected that China would lose by such a wide margin.<\/p>\n

Understandably, China has taken a hawkish and resolute stance against the Tribunal. Eager to show China\u2019s resolve in defending its bastions in the South China Sea, China landed<\/a> two civilian airliners on Mischief Reef on 13 July. It conducted two military exercises near Hainan Island\u2014one just before the 12 July verdict and another the week after\u2014closing off maritime areas and warning mariners that that area was prohibited.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s now a distinct possibility that tensions will escalate in the South China Sea. Given that the Arbitral Tribunal had ruled that all the features in the Spratlys are either rocks or low-tide elevations, the US now has the legal cover to conduct FONOPs closer to, or even inside, the 12nm zones around the maritime features. In June, French defence minister Jean-Yves le Drian said that France should urge European Union countries to conduct \u2018regular and visible\u2019 patrols<\/a> in the South China Sea. Chinese anger at such overt challenges could well lead to a conflict not from deliberation, but from accidental escalation.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the verdict, China has a solid physical position in the South China Sea. In February, it was found<\/a> that China had installed high-frequency radar on Cuarteron Reef, and possibly radars on Gaven, Hughes and Johnson South reefs. Such facilities would enable it to establish control over large swathes of the South China Sea within the nine-dash line. Three 3,000m airstrips in the Spratlys serve<\/a> to defend China\u2019s advanced submarines based farther north at Hainan Island. Deployed in the South China Sea, Jin-class submarines<\/a> with JL-2 nuclear missiles can break into the Pacific Ocean to get within striking range of the continental United States. Given such a strategic position\u2014compounded by Xi Jinping\u2019s heady mix of nationalism and rejuvenation from a \u2018century of humiliation\u2019\u2014it would be irrational for Beijing to give up its assets in the Spratlys.<\/p>\n

The Arbitral Tribunal wasn\u2019t able to rule on questions of sovereignty, and while it did rule that China\u2019s historic rights claim to the nine-dash line was incompatible with UNCLOS, it didn\u2019t conclude<\/a> that the nine-dash line per se was invalid or illegal. That gives China some wiggle room to continue to press its claim. In the clearest, quasi-authoritative response to the judgment, Wang Junmin, deputy dean of the CPS Postgraduate Institute, notes<\/a> that\u00a0the Philippines had used the Chinese expression \u2018historic rights\u2019 to argue China hadn\u2019t claimed \u2018historic title\u2019 to the South China Sea (the former may <\/a>include sovereignty, but may equally include more limited rights, such as fishing or rights of access that fall \u2018well short\u2019 of claims of sovereignty; the latter is used specifically to refer to historic sovereignty). Writing in the PLA Daily <\/em>on 18 July, Mr Wang wrote that Chinese references to \u2018historic rights\u2019 doesn\u2019t imply that China doesn\u2019t claim \u2018historic title.\u2019 He added that China has \u2018historic title\u2019 and \u2018historic fishing rights\u2019 in different areas within the nine-dash line.<\/p>\n

By claiming that China has \u2018historic title\u2019 to internal waters in \u2018archipelagos or island groups\u2019 that are at a \u2018relatively close distance\u2019 and that can be viewed \u2018integrated whole,\u2019 China could well draw<\/a> straight baselines around the features it occupies in the Spratlys and claim<\/a> extended maritime zones outward. Such a hardened position goes directly against the Tribunal\u2019s conclusions and would likely be challenged by the US.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time, however, for China and the US to pull back from such a brink. The signs thus far are encouraging. The Chinese government didn\u2019t yield to public calls for a boycott of Philippine goods (Xinhua<\/em><\/a> called this \u2018irrational patriotism\u2019), and China has stressed<\/a> that it would intensify talks for a binding Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea. The US has urged <\/a>the resumption of bilateral talks between China and other claimants, and encouraged them not to act provocatively. Likewise, the Philippines has responded sensibly, with President Rodrigo Duterte saying he wouldn\u2019t adopt a \u2018flaunt or taunt\u2019 position against Beijing.<\/p>\n

In the medium term, the best approach isn\u2019t to pummel China with the 501-page judgment, but rather, to ensure that it has enough face to pursue tangible and functional outcomes. Those could include accelerating talks for the COC, an expansion<\/a> of the Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) to include coast guard ships, and getting claimants\u2014like the Philippines\u2014to postpone negotiate directly with the Chinese.<\/p>\n

Speaking to his American counterpart recently, Admiral Wu Shengli, the chief of the PLA Navy stressed that China would never sacrifice its sovereignty and interests in South China Sea, would never stop construction there and never be caught off guard. Yet he signalled that both sides could cooperate by following CUES and Rules of Behaviour for the Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters.<\/p>\n

Working on tangible and functional outcomes\u2014and not rubbing China\u2019s nose in the ruling\u2014might well be the best way forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 12 July judgment by the Hague-based Arbitral Tribunal on the South China Sea constituted a near-total defeat for China. While it was widely expected that the Philippines would win, it wasn\u2019t expected that China …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":157,"featured_media":27984,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,493,1228,471,269],"class_list":["post-27983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-international-law","tag-pla-n","tag-south-china-sea","tag-unclos"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGiving China a ladder to climb down | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/giving-china-ladder-climb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Giving China a ladder to climb down | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The 12 July judgment by the Hague-based Arbitral Tribunal on the South China Sea constituted a near-total defeat for China. 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