{"id":28437,"date":"2016-09-02T11:00:58","date_gmt":"2016-09-02T01:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=28437"},"modified":"2016-09-01T16:55:33","modified_gmt":"2016-09-01T06:55:33","slug":"closing-colombias-war-plebiscite-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/closing-colombias-war-plebiscite-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Closing Colombia\u2019s war: a plebiscite then peace?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

The war in Colombia is over. But it\u2019s too early to celebrate.<\/p>\n

The Colombian government and the FARC rebels last week announced that they\u2019d settled a final peace deal that will end 52 years of fighting\u2014and the longest-running conflict in the Americas.<\/p>\n

Getting signatures on the deal is a historic achievement, but peace in Colombia won\u2019t be achieved with pen strokes alone. Indeed, a Brexit-like plebiscite is the only thing standing in between three generations of Colombians and their first day of peace in over half a century.<\/p>\n

President Santos referred to the plebiscite, which is currently scheduled for 2 October<\/a>, as the most important visit to the polls in Colombian history.<\/p>\n

Will Colombia say no to peace with the FARC? It\u2019s hard to tell how this peace deal will unfold. The latest polls show mixed results<\/a>. Since 2 August, the \u2018no\u2019 votes drew closer to the \u2018yes\u2019 votes five times. But the last poll revealed that the \u2018yes\u2019 is expected to win with 32.1% support over a 29.9% \u2018no\u2019 vote. But the polls are neck and neck\u2014it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess at this stage.<\/p>\n

What we can tell is that the government isn\u2019t in a comfortable position, for instance, by looking at the President\u2019s plunging approval ratings. Santos reached a new low of 21% in the most recent polling<\/a>, his lowest figure since taking office 2010.<\/p>\n

That may be music to the ears of former president Alvaro Uribe ahead of his \u2018vote no\u2019 plebiscite campaign. But with only 4.4 million votes (13%) of registered voters endorsing the deal, Uribe\u2019s hopes to negotiate a different one and postpone the celebration will likely be shattered.<\/p>\n

And what if Colombia say yes? Even if Colombians push the final deal through, peace should be met with cautious optimism. Significant challenges to implement this deal lie ahead.<\/p>\n

Transitional justice was highly controversial for the duration of negotiations. Impunity is a constant concern among sectors of society and among some politicians. Peacemaking has a sweet and sour flavor, but any aftertaste of impunity will affect peacebuilding in the long-term.<\/p>\n

FARC has to approve the accord during its 10th\u2014and hopefully final\u2014conference. It\u2019s a necessary step for the top leaders\u2019 buy-in. It could also be a moment for internal dissent about the agreement to manifest. That\u2019s unlikely to be a big issue as FARC leaders have been informally discussing the accords for years, but it could weaken the demobilisation process.<\/p>\n

In an agreed process, FARC members will hand their weapons to a UN mission and begin their reintegration into Colombian society. But landmines remain a significant barrier for thousands of FARC rebels seeking to transition to normal life and will likely seek to settle in Colombia\u2019s country regions rather than major urban areas.<\/p>\n

Colombia is the second most mine-affected country in the world after Afghanistan, and the source of the most new landmine victims<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That affects victims, too. For Colombia\u2019s six million internally displaced people<\/a>\u2014the second largest number in the world\u2014landmines could get in the way of their fresh start once rural areas under control of FARC begin to open up.<\/p>\n

Another challenge for a post-peace deal Colombia is serious organised crime, particularly drug trafficking. According to the annual United Nations report on Illicit Crop<\/a>, Colombia\u2019s coca crop increased 39% last year and has doubled since 2013, meaning that Colombia is once again the world\u2019s top coca producer. Having a major coca problem can increase violence in urban areas while undermining the effects of FARC\u2019s definite ceasefire. FARC\u2019s absence could create a vacuum that any number of other criminal groups already in the jungle may seek to fill, giving rise to more violence.<\/p>\n

Regardless of those challenges, Colombia has made impressive, if hard-won, gains in economic growth, citizen security, and improving the rule of law over the last decade. This has contributed significantly to the reduction of violence in rural areas<\/a> in recent years. The final peace deal between the government and FARC is another monumental step forward.<\/p>\n

If everything goes according to plan, next month\u2019s highly-anticipated symbolic ceremony (especially by those seeking to make political mileage<\/a> out it) will mark the beginning of a new chapter in Colombia\u2019s history. FARC will move from the jungle to the Congress, trading their camouflage for suiting as over 47 million optimistic eyes watching.<\/p>\n

The road ahead will put Colombia\u2019s patience, forgiveness, and adaptability to the test. Peacebuilding takes time, requires sacrifice and is driven by real change. The final deal isn\u2019t the perfect deal, but it\u2019s the best deal possible. Both sides would have liked to achieve more, but\u2014at least for now\u2014everything the deal appears done. Colombians will now have to decide whether this is the right tool for building a lasting peace before they can celebrate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The war in Colombia is over. But it\u2019s too early to celebrate. 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