{"id":28437,"date":"2016-09-02T11:00:58","date_gmt":"2016-09-02T01:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=28437"},"modified":"2016-09-01T16:55:33","modified_gmt":"2016-09-01T06:55:33","slug":"closing-colombias-war-plebiscite-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/closing-colombias-war-plebiscite-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Closing Colombia\u2019s war: a plebiscite then peace?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n
The war in Colombia is over. But it\u2019s too early to celebrate.<\/p>\n
The Colombian government and the FARC rebels last week announced that they\u2019d settled a final peace deal that will end 52 years of fighting\u2014and the longest-running conflict in the Americas.<\/p>\n
Getting signatures on the deal is a historic achievement, but peace in Colombia won\u2019t be achieved with pen strokes alone. Indeed, a Brexit-like plebiscite is the only thing standing in between three generations of Colombians and their first day of peace in over half a century.<\/p>\n
President Santos referred to the plebiscite, which is currently scheduled for 2 October<\/a>, as the most important visit to the polls in Colombian history.<\/p>\n Will Colombia say no to peace with the FARC? It\u2019s hard to tell how this peace deal will unfold. The latest polls show mixed results<\/a>. Since 2 August, the \u2018no\u2019 votes drew closer to the \u2018yes\u2019 votes five times. But the last poll revealed that the \u2018yes\u2019 is expected to win with 32.1% support over a 29.9% \u2018no\u2019 vote. But the polls are neck and neck\u2014it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess at this stage.<\/p>\n What we can tell is that the government isn\u2019t in a comfortable position, for instance, by looking at the President\u2019s plunging approval ratings. Santos reached a new low of 21% in the most recent polling<\/a>, his lowest figure since taking office 2010.<\/p>\n That may be music to the ears of former president Alvaro Uribe ahead of his \u2018vote no\u2019 plebiscite campaign. But with only 4.4 million votes (13%) of registered voters endorsing the deal, Uribe\u2019s hopes to negotiate a different one and postpone the celebration will likely be shattered.<\/p>\n And what if Colombia say yes? Even if Colombians push the final deal through, peace should be met with cautious optimism. Significant challenges to implement this deal lie ahead.<\/p>\n Transitional justice was highly controversial for the duration of negotiations. Impunity is a constant concern among sectors of society and among some politicians. Peacemaking has a sweet and sour flavor, but any aftertaste of impunity will affect peacebuilding in the long-term.<\/p>\n FARC has to approve the accord during its 10th\u2014and hopefully final\u2014conference. It\u2019s a necessary step for the top leaders\u2019 buy-in. It could also be a moment for internal dissent about the agreement to manifest. That\u2019s unlikely to be a big issue as FARC leaders have been informally discussing the accords for years, but it could weaken the demobilisation process.<\/p>\n In an agreed process, FARC members will hand their weapons to a UN mission and begin their reintegration into Colombian society. But landmines remain a significant barrier for thousands of FARC rebels seeking to transition to normal life and will likely seek to settle in Colombia\u2019s country regions rather than major urban areas.<\/p>\n Colombia is the second most mine-affected country in the world after Afghanistan, and the source of the most new landmine victims<\/a>.<\/p>\n That affects victims, too. For Colombia\u2019s six million internally displaced people<\/a>\u2014the second largest number in the world\u2014landmines could get in the way of their fresh start once rural areas under control of FARC begin to open up.<\/p>\n Another challenge for a post-peace deal Colombia is serious organised crime, particularly drug trafficking. According to the annual United Nations report on Illicit Crop<\/a>, Colombia\u2019s coca crop increased 39% last year and has doubled since 2013, meaning that Colombia is once again the world\u2019s top coca producer. Having a major coca problem can increase violence in urban areas while undermining the effects of FARC\u2019s definite ceasefire. FARC\u2019s absence could create a vacuum that any number of other criminal groups already in the jungle may seek to fill, giving rise to more violence.<\/p>\n Regardless of those challenges, Colombia has made impressive, if hard-won, gains in economic growth, citizen security, and improving the rule of law over the last decade. This has contributed significantly to the reduction of violence in rural areas<\/a> in recent years. The final peace deal between the government and FARC is another monumental step forward.<\/p>\n