{"id":28630,"date":"2016-09-14T06:00:24","date_gmt":"2016-09-13T20:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=28630"},"modified":"2016-09-14T09:03:43","modified_gmt":"2016-09-13T23:03:43","slug":"chinas-dam-problem-myanmar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-dam-problem-myanmar\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s dam problem with Myanmar"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n
China is a big fan of dams. Indeed, over the last 50 years, the country has constructed more dams than all other countries combined. But there\u2019s one dam that China never managed to get built: the Myitsone Dam in Myanmar. And Chinese leaders can\u2019t seem to let it go.<\/p>\n
The Myitsone Dam was to stand at the headwaters of the Irrawaddy River, Myanmar\u2019s lifeline. It was designed as a hydroelectric power project, which would generate energy for export to China, at a time when Myanmar\u2019s economy depended on its giant neighbour. Ruled by a brutal military junta, Myanmar faced crippling US-led sanctions and broad international isolation.<\/p>\n
Where others saw human-rights violations, China saw an opportunity to advance its own strategic and resource interests. When the Myitsone Dam project was introduced, China was also establishing a foothold in Myanmar\u2019s Kyaukpyu port on the Bay of Bengal, from which it would build energy pipelines to southern China.<\/p>\n
A stronger presence in Myanmar\u2019s Irrawaddy, which flows from near the Chinese border to the Andaman Sea, promised to provide China with a shorter, cheaper trade route to Europe. As an added benefit, the Myitsone project\u2014and, more broadly, China\u2019s relationship with Myanmar\u2014would advance China\u2019s ambition of challenging India\u2019s advantage around the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n
Everything seemed to be going according to plan. But in 2011, just two years after the $3.6 billion project got underway, Myanmar\u2019s government suddenly suspended the dam\u2019s construction\u2014a slap in the face<\/a> to China. Moving toward democratic reform, President Thein Sein\u2019s government was eager to cast off the view of Myanmar as a Chinese client state.<\/p>\n Sein got what he wanted. Myanmar\u2019s reversal on the Myitsone Dam became a watershed<\/a> moment for the country\u2019s democratic transition. It helped to bring an end to Myanmar\u2019s international isolation, and an easing of the long-standing Western sanctions that made Myanmar so dependent on China in the first place. In 2012, Barack Obama became the first US president ever to visit Myanmar.<\/p>\n Last year, Myanmar elected its first civilian-led government. The National League for Democracy, led by the former political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi, won the election in a landslide. Though Suu Kyi was blocked from running for the presidency directly, she\u2019s the most powerful figure in Myanmar\u2019s 10-month-old government.<\/p>\n Alongside all of this democratic progress, however, Myanmar\u2019s relations with China cooled considerably. After work on the Myitsone Dam halted, several other dam and energy projects were also put on hold, though Chinese firms did manage to complete multibillion-dollar oil and gas pipelines from Myanmar\u2019s western coast to southern China in 2013-2014.<\/p>\n But China has not given up on the Myitsone project. Indeed, President Xi Jinping seems to be trying to seize the opening created by Suu Kyi\u2019s efforts to defuse bilateral tensions\u2014her first diplomatic trip since the election was to Beijing\u2014to pressure her to reverse Sein\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n China has warned that if Myanmar fails to resume the Myitsone project, it will be liable to pay $800 million to China. Hong Liang, China\u2019s ambassador to Myanmar, declared three months ago that Myanmar should be paying $50 million<\/a> in interest alone for each year the project is suspended. But if the project were completed, Hong continued, Myanmar could reap high returns by exporting much of the electricity to China.<\/p>\n The threats haven\u2019t fallen on deaf ears. Before her visit to Beijing, Suu Kyi tasked a 20-member commission to review proposed and existing hydropower projects along the Irawaddy, including the suspended Myitsone deal.<\/p>\n