{"id":29351,"date":"2016-11-02T06:00:12","date_gmt":"2016-11-01T19:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29351"},"modified":"2016-11-02T10:55:58","modified_gmt":"2016-11-01T23:55:58","slug":"duterte-bull-china-shop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/duterte-bull-china-shop\/","title":{"rendered":"Duterte: a bull in a China shop\u00a0\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29352 size-full\" title=\"Edited image courtesy of Flickr user Damianos Chronakis.\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/8139422330_8e6af27edf_b.jpg\" alt=\"Edited image courtesy of Flickr user Damianos Chronakis.\" width=\"640\" height=\"412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/8139422330_8e6af27edf_b.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/8139422330_8e6af27edf_b-205x132.jpg 205w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In announcing a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2016-10-21\/duterte-says-us-has-lost-aligns-philippines-with-china\/7952628\" target=\"_blank\">separation<\/a> from the US, the Philippine\u2019s President Duterte recently flagged a closer relationship with China, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/world\/its-time-to-say-goodbye-rodrigo-duterte-dismisses-us-to-embrace-china-20161020-gs6qdv.html\" target=\"_blank\">stating<\/a>, \u2018America has lost\u2026I\u2019ve realigned myself in your [China\u2019s] ideological flow\u2019. Although Duterte subsequently <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2016-10-21\/duterte-says-us-has-lost-aligns-philippines-with-china\/7952628\" target=\"_blank\">walked back from<\/a> his position, the perception is emerging that the Philippines under Duterte is at best charting a more independent path, and at worst, decisively aligning with China.<\/p>\n<p>On the South China Sea, Duterte indicated that he&#8217;ll put aside the outcome of the Arbitral Tribunal and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/10\/21\/world\/asia\/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-china-xi-jinping.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">engage<\/a> with Beijing bilaterally. In an apparent quid pro quo, Chinese Coast Guard <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/news\/world\/with-duterte-dealing-with-china-australia-should-offer-advisers\/news-story\/10a5959f8f75340a8ab6c391302632fd\" target=\"_blank\">vessels<\/a> have left the Scarborough Shoal. This implies reward for Manila for aligning itself with Beijing. The risk is other ASEAN <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-malaysia-china-defence-idUSKCN12S0WA\" target=\"_blank\">states<\/a> will seek similar <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-malaysia-china-defence-idUSKCN12S0WA\" target=\"_blank\">benefit<\/a>, further undermining the already fragile ASEAN unity. Beijing already has enough <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aseantoday.com\/2016\/08\/can-beijings-influence-on-the-south-china-sea-dispute-break-asean\/\" target=\"_blank\">influence<\/a> over Laos and Cambodia to make consensus over ASEAN joint communiqu\u00e9s on the South China Sea <a href=\"https:\/\/amti.csis.org\/manilas-pyrrhic-victory-asean-disarray-south-china-sea\/\" target=\"_blank\">impossible<\/a>. Having the Philippines in its pocket would allow Beijing\u2019s to divide and weaken ASEAN, and the Philippines\u2019 <a href=\"http:\/\/cnnphilippines.com\/news\/2016\/09\/08\/Duterte-new-ASEAN-chair.html\" target=\"_blank\">leadership<\/a> of ASEAN in 2017 could further enhance Beijing\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n<p>Duterte also suggested <a href=\"http:\/\/www.philstar.com\/headlines\/2016\/10\/03\/1629833\/duterte-eyes-review-edca\" target=\"_blank\">reviewing<\/a> the 2014 Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.gov.ph\/2014\/04\/28\/qna-on-the-enhanced-defense-cooperation-agreement\/\" target=\"_blank\">EDCA<\/a>), which allows the US regular <a href=\"http:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2016\/03\/a-big-deal-us-philippines-agree-first-bases-under-new-defense-pact\/\" target=\"_blank\">access<\/a> to five Philippines <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/world\/us-seeks-access-to-philippine-bases-as-part-of-asia-pivot-20150425-1mt29i.html\" target=\"_blank\">bases<\/a> under the 2011 Manila <a href=\"http:\/\/www.state.gov\/r\/pa\/prs\/ps\/2011\/11\/177226.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Declaration<\/a>. Even if EDCA survives, an unpredictable and hostile Duterte, motivated by a lifetime of personal <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rodrigo-duterte-genuine-political-outsider\/\">resentment<\/a> towards America, could cause severe problems for Washington. His threats to end <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/philippines-leader-to-end-joint-military-exercises-joint-naval-patrols-with-u-s-1475086567\" target=\"_blank\">joint US\u2013Filipino naval patrols<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-philippines-usa-duterte-idUSKCN11I10J\" target=\"_blank\">US Special Forces operations against Islamist groups in Mindanao<\/a> would sour relations even further. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2016-09-13\/duterte-courts-china-for-weapons-ends-joint-patrols-with-u-s\" target=\"_blank\">Purchasing<\/a> Russian and Chinese military hardware would probably end the US\u2013Philippines defence relationship. It would certainly tear a <a href=\"http:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/the-buzz\/rodrigo-duterte-could-tear-giant-hole-americas-pivot-asia-18030\" target=\"_blank\">hole<\/a> in the Obama\u2019s rebalance to Asia.<\/p>\n<p>Clearly the next US administration can&#8217;t simply continue with the same policy as before. A Philippines <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/article\/2039094\/dutertes-tilt-towards-china-set-test-us-pivot-asia\" target=\"_blank\">realignment<\/a> would be a huge blow to US interests in Asia, and if <a href=\"http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2016\/09\/16\/obama-failure-to-pass-tpp-benefits-beijing\/\" target=\"_blank\">TPP<\/a> ratification also fails, the confluence of two such important events would introduce greater uncertainty to what would follow a failed US Rebalance. The US needs a new strategy for Asia, but any policy change will take time to emerge after the new president\u2019s inauguration, and may be outpaced by events\u2014as was dramatically demonstrated by Duterte\u2019s time in Beijing last week.<\/p>\n<p>Kurt Campbell has already been thinking about that challenge, and argues in <a href=\"https:\/\/storage.googleapis.com\/i4mmgpl.appspot.com\/Pivot-Future-American-Statecraft-Asia-d984ea40a4bcf51d752168f9d38b0fe1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><em>The Pivot<\/em><\/a> (2016) that the American strategy for Asia must evolve if it&#8217;s to be successful. Campbell lays out a ten-point plan which focuses on bolstering alliances through joining together the \u2018spokes\u2019 of the \u2018hub and spokes\u2019 arrangements and strengthening the various bilateral spoke arrangements. Although <em>The Pivot<\/em> was written before Duterte\u2019s bombshell, Campbell\u2019s suggestion of a federated approach through building greater integration in defence and security, economics, political and cultural ties between the spokes makes a great deal of sense. The goal of the Campbell strategy is to open up new opportunities for US forward presence by strengthening and integrating the other spokes, such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and key ASEAN allies. Hubs and spokes survive\u2014but not as we know it.<\/p>\n<p>As part of that approach, Campbell makes clear that the US has an interest in additional basing for its forces in Australia, including naval vessels and more regular joint exercises. He also specifically notes the potential for cooperation on missile defence as a counter to Chinese A2AD capabilities.<\/p>\n<p>Campbell\u2019s suggestions are echoed in a recent <a href=\"http:\/\/ussc.edu.au\/ussc\/assets\/media\/docs\/publications\/2016_Risks_Opportunities_Australia_US_Alliance.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a> (PDF) by the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, which makes twelve recommendations for strengthening the US\u2013Australia alliance. Those include deploying long-range airpower into northern bases, and homeporting a US carrier battlegroup in Australia. Certainly, in line with Campbell\u2019s interest in joint missile defence, Australia could consider an option to fast-track acquisition of integrated air and missile defence against ballistic and land-attack cruise missile threats. Hooks for those already appear in Australia\u2019s 2016 Defence White Paper. Those capabilities would be particularly important for countering submarine-based land-attack cruise missile (LACM) <a href=\"http:\/\/ndupress.ndu.edu\/Media\/News\/News-Article-View\/Article\/577568\/jfq-75-a-potent-vector-assessing-chinese-cruise-missile-developments\/\" target=\"_blank\">threats<\/a> to Australian defence facilities used by US forces.<\/p>\n<p>Missile defence would be more effective if the ADF knew where potential submarines capable of launching LACMs were, and that suggests greater efforts towards monitoring our underwater maritime approaches. We could work with the US to develop a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/seeing-the-dragon-on-our-doorstep-part-1\/\" target=\"_blank\">Theatre ASW<\/a> capability as part of an enhanced US\u2013Australia partnership. That could eventually be expanded to include other key partners such as Japan in a manner that is consistent with Campbell\u2019s suggested approach of building webs between spokes.<\/p>\n<p>The strategy suggested by Campbell in <em>The Pivot<\/em>, and echoed by the US Studies Centre report, is more relevant than ever given the direction Duterte is leading the Philippines, and of the broader trends and events that are challenging US interests across Asia. Duterte\u2019s approach will present a serious challenge to the next US administration, and by extension, to Australia\u2019s regional security interests. His approach to foreign policy is akin to a bull in a China shop. The US, Australia and others will have to pick up the pieces.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In announcing a separation from the US, the Philippine\u2019s President Duterte recently flagged a closer relationship with China, stating, \u2018America has lost\u2026I\u2019ve realigned myself in your [China\u2019s] ideological flow\u2019. Although Duterte subsequently walked back from &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":29352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[330,189,52,1721,471],"class_list":["post-29351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-a2ad","tag-asean","tag-china","tag-rodrigo-duterte","tag-south-china-sea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Duterte: a bull in a China shop\u00a0\u00a0 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/duterte-bull-china-shop\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Duterte: a bull in a China shop\u00a0\u00a0 | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In announcing a separation from the US, the Philippine\u2019s President Duterte recently flagged a closer relationship with China, stating, \u2018America has lost\u2026I\u2019ve realigned myself in your [China\u2019s] ideological flow\u2019. 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