{"id":29475,"date":"2016-11-11T12:32:41","date_gmt":"2016-11-11T01:32:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29475"},"modified":"2016-11-10T15:53:01","modified_gmt":"2016-11-10T04:53:01","slug":"trumps-new-world-disorder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-new-world-disorder\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s new world disorder"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

So much for the end of history. Twenty-seven years to the day after the fall of the Berlin Wall heralded the collapse of communism in Europe, Donald Trump\u2019s election as US president endangers the liberal international order that his wiser, broader-minded predecessors crafted.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First,\u201d anti-\u201cglobalist\u201d agenda threatens protectionist trade wars, a worldwide \u2018clash of civilizations,\u2019 the peace in Europe and East Asia, and further violence in the Middle East. His nativist and authoritarian views also undermine the shared values, faith in liberal democracy, and assumption of benign American hegemony on which the rules-based international system depends. Already in relative decline, the United States is now poised for an angry retreat from the world.<\/p>\n

Optimists hope that Trump didn\u2019t mean what he said during the election campaign; that he will surround himself with seasoned internationalist advisers; and that his wilder instincts will be tempered by the checks and balances of the US political system. Let\u2019s hope so. But nothing in his temperament suggests as much. And with Republicans retaining control over both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Trump will have a freer rein than most presidents. That is especially true in trade and foreign policy, where US presidents enjoy much greater discretion\u2014and where the damage he could do is potentially huge and enduring.<\/p>\n

Start with trade. Globalisation had already stalled in recent years. Now Trump threatens to throw it into reverse. At the very least, his victory kills off the faint hopes of concluding the two jumbo trade deals that Barack Obama\u2019s administration had been negotiating: the completed but unratified Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with 11 Pacific countries, and the stalled Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the European Union.<\/p>\n

Trump has also pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico. Worse, he wants to slap tariffs on Chinese imports, which would doubtless provoke a trade war. He has even spoken of pulling out of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the multilateral rules-based trading system.<\/p>\n

Such an agenda would not only threaten a global recession. It would also tempt regions to split into rival trading blocs\u2014a worrying prospect for a post-Brexit Britain seemingly intent on tearing itself away from the European Union to go it alone. In Asia, the collapse of the TPP, from which the Obama administration unwisely excluded China, paves the way for the Chinese to build their own trading bloc.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s victory threatens East Asia\u2019s security as well as its economy. By retreating from free trade and casting doubt on US security guarantees for its allies, he could prompt Japan, South Korea, and others to race to acquire nuclear weapons to protect themselves against a rising China. The Philippines is unlikely to be the last country in the region to conclude that cozying up to China is a better bet than relying on an increasingly isolationist America.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s victory also undermines Europe\u2019s security. His admiration for Vladimir Putin, Russia\u2019s authoritarian leader, is alarming. Putin laments the break-up of the Soviet Union, wants to recreate a Russian sphere of influence in the country\u2019s neighborhood and has already invaded Georgia and Ukraine. Trump\u2019s suggestion that his commitment to defending NATO allies is conditional invites Putin to go further.<\/p>\n

The Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, NATO members that were once part of the Soviet empire and have substantial Russian minorities, are most at risk. While a common external threat ought to drive the EU to increase defense spending and deepen its security cooperation, EU-skeptic, austerity-hit European voters may have little appetite for this. Indeed, many European governments seem tempted to seek to appease Putin, rather than stand up to him.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s outright racism, hostility to Hispanic immigrants, and Islamophobic rhetoric threatens a culture clash\u2014and even violence\u2014within America. It could also set the stage for the \u2018clash of civilizations\u2019 of which the late Samuel Huntington warned. Bullying Mexico to try to force it to pay for the huge border wall that Trump wants to erect would be an act of hostility against all Latinos. Casting Muslims as enemies\u2014and denying them entry to America, as he vowed during his campaign\u2014would be a powerful recruiting sergeant for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, as is suggesting that the US ought to seize Iraq\u2019s oilfields for itself.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the most enduring damage will be to America\u2019s soft power and the appeal of its liberal democracy. The election of a racist president with fascist tendencies is an indictment of America\u2019s political system. Trump himself has shown himself to be contemptuous of democracy, saying he would not accept the election result if he lost and threatening to jail his opponent. Chinese officials will not be alone in thinking that a system where lies, hatred, and ignorance trump sober deliberation is defective. America is no longer the \u2018shining city upon the hill\u2019 that successive presidents have proclaimed it to be.<\/p>\n

Anti-establishment insurgents now have the wind in their sails. In the wake of the financial crisis and wrenching economic change, many voters have understandably lost faith in Western elites, who seem incompetent, corrupt, and out of touch. They also, wrongly, blame immigrants for their problems and feel threatened by social liberalism. In the absence of positive alternatives to a deeply flawed status quo<\/em>, the risk of an even greater backlash is high. Unlikely as polls now suggest it is, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front may well win France\u2019s presidential election next May. That would deal a hammer blow to the euro, the EU, and the West.<\/p>\n

Liberal internationalists cannot afford to be complacent. Trump\u2019s victory is a disaster\u2014and it can get much worse than this. We need to defend our open, liberal societies and offer positive changes to win back anxious voters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So much for the end of history. Twenty-seven years to the day after the fall of the Berlin Wall heralded the collapse of communism in Europe, Donald Trump\u2019s election as US president endangers the liberal …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":570,"featured_media":29476,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,181,1606,1650,31],"class_list":["post-29475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-international-order","tag-presidential-election-2016","tag-rules-based-order","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s new world disorder | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-new-world-disorder\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s new world disorder | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"So much for the end of history. 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