{"id":29481,"date":"2016-11-14T11:00:05","date_gmt":"2016-11-14T00:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29481"},"modified":"2016-11-14T10:27:02","modified_gmt":"2016-11-13T23:27:02","slug":"mo-mirvs-mo-problems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/mo-mirvs-mo-problems\/","title":{"rendered":"Mo\u2019 MIRVs, mo\u2019 problems"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

When you think of American and Soviet Cold War nuclear arsenals, the descriptor \u2018huge\u2019 automatically comes to mind. One technological innovation in the 1970s contributed more than any other factor to the creation of those five-digit warhead stockpiles<\/a>: multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicles (or MIRVs). MIRVs allowed a single ICBM to carry multiple warheads and hit multiple targets, so warhead numbers grew rapidly as more missiles were MIRVed. Despite many believing that MIRVs would be reduced to Cold-War-relic status after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they\u2019re beginning to make a comeback in Asia. It\u2019s a development that has worrying implications for the Asian nuclear offence\u2013defence balance.<\/p>\n

A recent book from the Stimson Center<\/a>, The Lures and Pitfalls of MIRVs: From the First to the Second Nuclear Age<\/em><\/a> (PDF), provides an excellent overview of that topic and is worthy of an in-depth read. For the sake of brevity however, I\u2019ll summarise the main argument. While the development of MIRVs led to rapid expansions in US and Soviet nuclear arsenals and the embrace of counterforce targeting, the big nuclear powers in Asia (China, India, and Pakistan) are MIRVing much more slowly. China has had the technical capacity to MIRV since the 1990s, but has only recently done so on a limited number of its ICBMs<\/a>, primarily in response to US missile defence systems and to demonstrate China\u2019s technical skills. India, the authors argue, has gradually shifted towards MIRVing its own missile force due to China\u2019s nuclear advances, as well as domestic pressures. Meanwhile, they argue that Pakistan\u2019s pursuit of MIRVs will in turn be driven by its rivalry with India. The authors conclude that while the slow pace means that MIRV-induced competition in Asia is likely to be less intense and less destabilising than US\u2013Soviet competition in the Cold War, the triangular nature of the competition opens up more avenues for external disruption and unintended consequences.<\/p>\n

An interesting takeaway from the book is that one of the commonly-held public justifications for MIRVs doesn\u2019t really pass muster. Chinese proponents of the technology often cite the need to penetrate improving US ballistic missile defence (BMD) systems as a justification for introducing multiple warheads to their missiles. BMD has long been controversial<\/a> among nuclear strategists, as its (theoretically) successful implementation removes the opponent\u2019s ability to guarantee retaliation against your homeland if attacked, which undermines deterrence and encourages striking first.<\/p>\n

The issue here is that this misunderstands the capabilities of current ballistic missile defence systems. As Andrew Davies and Rod Lyon<\/a> point out, current missile defence systems work best against attacks featuring a small number of short-ranged ballistic missiles that are simple in nature (i.e. missiles that don\u2019t employ countermeasures). MIRVed ICBMs are the exact opposite: they\u2019re long-ranged, typically equipped with sophisticated countermeasures (such as dummy warheads or chaff), and, in theory, would be launched in large numbers.<\/p>\n

Destroying ICBMs in their boost phase<\/a> is the ideal way to counter MIRVs, but the technology to guarantee interception doesn\u2019t currently exist and requires persistent capabilities that are politically risky<\/a>. But it becomes more difficult and costly to intercept an ICBM as it gets further along in its flight trajectory. Most current BMD systems (such as Patriot<\/a> and THAAD<\/a>) intercept ballistic missiles in their midcourse or terminal phases using interceptor missiles. But once the warheads have separated from the booster\u2014which occurs in the midcourse phase\u2014those types of BMD systems would have to destroy each individual warhead with an interceptor missile to work effectively. Given the cost<\/a> of a single interceptor missile, fielding even a moderately effective defence against an incoming ICBM strike is likely to prove too expensive to be practical\u2014even if the ‘leakage’ of multiple nuclear warheads could be judged acceptable.<\/p>\n

MIRVs help to skew the offence\u00ad\u2013defence nuclear balance firmly towards the offence even as BMD capabilities improve. Putting multiple, individually-targetable warheads on a large number of missiles also provides a substantial first strike capability, as it allows you to potentially disarm your opponent. That, in turn, encourages a\u00a0first strike, creating a \u2018use it or lose it\u2019 mentality that decreases stability. This problem is especially acute for stationary silo-based missiles, which are vulnerable to attack. Deploying MIRVed missiles at sea makes more sense, because submarines are generally more survivable than silos\u2014a reason why the vast majority of the US\u2019 nuclear arsenal is deployed underwater<\/a>. China<\/a>\u2019s developing MIRVed SLBMs alongside its ground-based arsenals, which suggests Beijing wants to keep a foot in both camps\u2014at least until it\u2019s more confident of its SSBN\/SLBM capabilities. India\u2019s sea-based deterrent is also in its infancy, so it\u2019ll be relying on its vulnerable siloed ICBMs for deterrence for the time being.<\/p>\n

However, the slow pace of MIRVing in Asia today is a hopeful sign that the region\u2019s nuclear-armed states have learned from the Americans and Soviets about the consequences of unchecked MIRVing. But the fact remains that MIRVs, and the potential for instability that comes with them, will be an important part of the Asian nuclear balance for decades to come.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When you think of American and Soviet Cold War nuclear arsenals, the descriptor \u2018huge\u2019 automatically comes to mind. One technological innovation in the 1970s contributed more than any other factor to the creation of those …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":475,"featured_media":29489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[143,1647,52,69,116],"class_list":["post-29481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asia-pacific","tag-ballistic-missile","tag-china","tag-india","tag-nuclear-deterrence"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMo\u2019 MIRVs, mo\u2019 problems | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/mo-mirvs-mo-problems\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mo\u2019 MIRVs, mo\u2019 problems | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When you think of American and Soviet Cold War nuclear arsenals, the descriptor \u2018huge\u2019 automatically comes to mind. 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