{"id":29525,"date":"2016-11-15T06:00:13","date_gmt":"2016-11-14T19:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29525"},"modified":"2016-11-14T12:03:48","modified_gmt":"2016-11-14T01:03:48","slug":"shaping-hedging-time-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/shaping-hedging-time-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Shaping and hedging in a time of Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

Donald J. Trump is president-elect of the United States. What are the consequences for Australia?<\/p>\n

Following a 15 minute phone call with Mr Trump, Prime Minister Turnbull moved to reassure a shell-shocked public<\/a> that it\u2019s business as usual. Shared values, long history, nothing to see here, move on.<\/p>\n

What else could he say?<\/p>\n

The reality is that everyone involved in defence, trade and foreign policy in Australia\u2014politicians, officials and commentators\u2014are scrambling to answer the same question; to what extent and in what ways do we need to rethink our policies in light of Trump\u2019s victory?<\/p>\n

Nowhere is that question more acute than in defence and strategic policy. As I pointed out in May<\/a>, the 2016 Defence White Paper blithely asserts that the US will continue to play a stabilising role in the region into the foreseeable future. On the basis of Trump\u2019s statements about US alliances, we now have a defence strategy that has at its heart a manifestly flawed planning assumption.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, the question itself has metastasised. We now have to ask whether the United State under Trump might not just be indifferent to our part of the world, but might actively<\/em> erode the security of the region. Nuclear weapons for Seoul and Tokyo, anyone?<\/p>\n

We need to act on two fronts. First, we need to explore ways to shape US policy consistent with our interests. As always, we\u2019ll stand ready to provide counsel to our ally as the new administration finds its way in a volatile world. But given the avowed \u2018America first\u2019 slant of Trump\u2019s campaign and its singular domestic focus, our influence is likely to be even more limited than usual.<\/p>\n

A more transactional approach will probably be needed. Larger contributions to US operations, further expansion of our defence force and more extensive US access to our ports and airfields are all likely to be the currencies of the day. Spending 2% of GDP on defence may only be the first installment of what\u2019s needed to convince the new deal-maker-in-chief.<\/p>\n

The second thing we need to do is hedge against a US retrenchment by increasing our self-reliance. By that I don\u2019t mean developing a more extensive domestic defence industry\u2014we\u2019ll never be industrially self-reliant\u2014nor do I advocate changes to the planned shape of the ADF (but only because it\u2019s pointless to try and wrest control from the military). Rather, it\u2019s a question of timing.<\/p>\n

At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, our ability to provide for our own defence is proportional to the size of defence force. The 2016 White Paper set out a plan to expand and modernise the ADF, but in critical areas\u2014such as submarines and frigates\u2014the delivery schedule is glacial. Trump\u2019s election is just another reminder that the strategic landscape is changing quickly, and in ways inimical to our interests. What\u2019s more, as the increasing obsolescence of the 2016 White Paper demonstrates, it\u2019s changing in ways we (or at least our officials) have been unable to anticipate.<\/p>\n

The planned slow-motion domestic construction of ships and submarines is an indulgence we can no longer afford. On current plans, our first new ASW capable frigate won\u2019t enter service until the late 2020s, and our submarine flotilla won\u2019t have its 12th boat before 2048. And that\u2019s assuming that our local shipbuilders can avoid repeating the Collins and Air Warfare Destroyer debacles. If not, things will be much worse.<\/p>\n

If we must build vessels in country for the sake of a couple of thousand jobs, so be it. But let\u2019s not ignore the option of bolstering our naval defences more quickly through concurrent rapid purchases. The RAAF has shown the way in recent years by smoothly introducing potent off-the-shelf platforms into service, such as the F-18 Super Hornet .<\/p>\n

Of course, there\u2019s a host of nuances ignored by the forgoing analysis. For example, there\u2019s the question of how we manage our defence relationships with other US allies in the region. That and other questions can and should be considered carefully as the new US administration\u2019s foreign policy becomes clear. And we\u2019ll have to find a way to cut through the layers of process that impede too many of our defence purchases. But none of that\u2019s an excuse for sitting on our hands when it comes to the concrete question of defence capability.<\/p>\n

The good news is that there\u2019s no conflict between the requirements of shaping and hedging. A more rapid development of a stronger defence force would both increase our self-reliance and bolster our value as an ally. Even if you believe, as at least one ex-prime minister does, that it\u2019s time to distance ourselves from the United States and \u2018make our way in Asia ourselves\u2019<\/a>, the imperative to bolster our defences remains. We should get on with it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald J. Trump is president-elect of the United States. What are the consequences for Australia? Following a 15 minute phone call with Mr Trump, Prime Minister Turnbull moved to reassure a shell-shocked public that it\u2019s …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29526,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[33,23,1428,293],"class_list":["post-29525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-capability","tag-defence-economics","tag-donald-trump","tag-pivot"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nShaping and hedging in a time of Trump | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/shaping-hedging-time-trump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shaping and hedging in a time of Trump | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald J. 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