{"id":29540,"date":"2016-11-16T06:00:45","date_gmt":"2016-11-15T19:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29540"},"modified":"2016-11-16T14:49:50","modified_gmt":"2016-11-16T03:49:50","slug":"deterrent-value-submarines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/deterrent-value-submarines\/","title":{"rendered":"The deterrent value of submarines"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

I spoke on the subject of the deterrent value of submarines at the Submarine Institute of Australia annual conference yesterday. I was preaching to the choir with that crowd, but I\u2019m often asked at public events why we\u2019re planning on spending so much on submarines.<\/p>\n

The full text of my talk is here\u00a0<\/a>but I had three main messages:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Our planned submarine capability is sufficient to have a strong deterrent effect on other middle powers.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Deterring a determined nuclear weapon power requires a nuclear weapon capability because a conventional response can only get you so far. If we think we need to deter China, we need the US around.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. If we\u2019re serious about having a deterrent submarine force, we need to bring the timetable for construction and delivery of the future boats forward.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The first shouldn\u2019t be controversial. Deterrence is the art of being able to credibly threaten a would-be adversary with more pain than gain. And one of the best ways to do that is with a weapon which is effective and hard to counter. A submarine\u2019s stealth allows it to do just that, including threatening an adversary, even close to their own bases. A capable submarine arm could go a long way to preventing a near-peer from being able to make effective use of the ocean\u2014which in turn should make them think twice about starting something.<\/p>\n

    Economic trends suggest that our region will continue to grow faster than we will. Regional military modernisation will erode our current capability and\/or capacity advantages, and we won\u2019t be able to count on winning a symmetric conflict. So we need to think about what we\u2019d need in the way of asymmetric<\/em> capabilities in order to be able to take it up to a capable near-peer adversary.<\/p>\n

    A skeptic might reasonably ask who that adversary could be, and I\u2019ll admit that there\u2019s no obvious contemporary threat. But, if for no other reason than geography, we\u2019ll always have to watch developments to our immediate north. Australia and Indonesia nearly came to blows in the 1960s, and there were heightened tensions over East Timor in the 1970s and again in 1999. Indonesia is now in a happier place than defence planners could have credited 15 years ago, and it would take supreme incompetence on the part of both parties for us to come to blows again. But Defence planners have to be glass half empty types. Political trends aren\u2019t always benign, and future developments could take us back to a place where our interests come into conflict.<\/p>\n

    Major powers present a very different calculus. And we\u2019re really talking about China. I suppose we can\u2019t entirely rule out a problem with Russia, but even they would have to push China aside further north to credibly threaten Australia\u2019s direct interests. There\u2019s no doubt that the rise of China presents Australia with its most serious strategic challenge for the first half of this century. Australia\u2019s intelligence agencies reached the same conclusion, as reflected in successive defence white papers.<\/p>\n

    A credible deterrent to Chinese power must include enough conventional force to make the costs of conventional war unpalatable, and the backup of nuclear weapons to counter a nuclear threat. Having an ally in the region that has significant conventional and nuclear capabilities is the only affordable way for Australia to achieve that goal. Recent defence white papers reached the same conclusion: Australia\u2019s best strategy is to encourage the US to strongly engage in the Asia\u2013Pacific region, and the best way to do that is to be a more robust and capable ally.<\/p>\n

    A couple of forward deployed Australian submarines won\u2019t deter a country that has a fleet of over 70 nuclear and conventional boats\u2014and which hasn\u2019t been deterred by the USN\u2019s nuclear submarines (or by the threat of nuclear escalation). But by investing more in our own capability, we simultaneously add to total alliance power and take the argument about freeloading allies off the table in Washington. It\u2019s notable that the incoming President has criticised Japan and South Korea as net takers of security, but has been much less inclined to criticise Australia.<\/p>\n

    I\u2019ve convinced myself that more and better Australian submarines are a good idea. But there\u2019s one aspect of our submarine plan that still vexes me: the timetable for delivery.<\/p>\n

    The 2016 White Paper says this:<\/p>\n

    \u2018\u2026the growth of China\u2019s national power, including its military modernisation, means China\u2019s policies and actions will have a major impact on the stability of the Indo-Pacific to 2035.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    But the Navy will commission the first of Australia\u2019s future submarines not long before that, and won’t have 12 until 15 years later.<\/p>\n

    Let\u2019s get serious. A larger fleet of more capable submarines allows us to retire strategic risk. They\u2019d provide us with a potent deterrent against middle powers. They\u2019d help us be a capable and credible ally to the US, and thus lower the costs to the US of remaining deeply engaged in our region. But the major power balance in our region could change dramatically in the next 20 years. The dust could be settling just in time for our new boats to start arriving. The reason we\u2019re being so lackadaisical about it isn\u2019t strategic logic\u2014it\u2019s the politics of local builds. As Mark Thomson pointed out yesterday<\/a>, industry policy is holding Australia\u2019s strategic policy captive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I spoke on the subject of the deterrent value of submarines at the Submarine Institute of Australia annual conference yesterday. I was preaching to the choir with that crowd, but I\u2019m often asked at public …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":29541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[23,1428,1203,223],"class_list":["post-29540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-defence-economics","tag-donald-trump","tag-sea-1000","tag-submarines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe deterrent value of submarines | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/deterrent-value-submarines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The deterrent value of submarines | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I spoke on the subject of the deterrent value of submarines at the Submarine Institute of Australia annual conference yesterday. 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