{"id":29622,"date":"2016-11-22T06:00:45","date_gmt":"2016-11-21T19:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29622"},"modified":"2016-11-21T15:44:02","modified_gmt":"2016-11-21T04:44:02","slug":"nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve come full circle on nuclear disarmament. In the late 1950s, the Aldermaston Easter marches<\/a> (from the British Atomic Weapons Establishment near Aldermaston to Trafalgar Square in London) urged British governments to \u2018Ban the Bomb\u2019. Around the Western world, protesters\u2019 numbers swelled in parallel with global nuclear arsenals, so that by the 1980s they represented a substantial social movement. Music slid towards nuclear fatalism<\/a>. The BBC mini-series, Edge of Darkness<\/a>, depicted a struggle for the planet between pro- and anti-nuclear forces.<\/p>\n

Governments, meanwhile, focused upon specific arms-control measures. A plethora of agreements sought to minimise the pressures for nuclear proliferation (the NPT), constrain nuclear testing (the PTBT, the TTBT, and the CTBT), restrict ballistic missile defences (the ABM Treaty), cap and reduce offensive nuclear arsenals (SALT 1 and 2, START, New START, and the INF Treaty) and establish a variety of Nuclear-Free Zones. As those agreements unfolded\u2014and in particular as the Cold War ended\u2014protesters fell away.<\/p>\n

But today the ban-the-bomb aficionados are back, and they feel cheated. They\u2019ve come to believe that arms controllers value nuclear stability more than disarmament. They worry that the NPT contains no timetable for actual disarmament. And they fear that current nuclear modernisation programs will keep nuclear weapons at the core of many states\u2019 strategic postures for most of the 21st century.<\/p>\n

So over recent years we\u2019ve witnessed a perverse hijacking of the nuclear arms control agenda. Quite suddenly, disarmers have been seized once again with the notion of \u2018banning the bomb\u2019, and UN working groups and committees\u2014not the grimy road to Aldermaston\u2014have been their fora. The narrative of arms control and disarmament has been inverted, so that countries like Australia and Japan, which focus on overcoming the hurdles that stand in the way of that enterprise, are labelled \u2018spoilers<\/a>\u2019 and \u2018refuseniks<\/a>\u2019. Meanwhile, those advocating a ban insist that delegitimising nuclear weapons would be a major step forward<\/a>\u2014even though doing so would remove not a single warhead from the world.<\/p>\n

Perhaps this new enthusiasm for retreating to the 1950s has something to do with the fact that President Obama\u2019s term is winding rapidly to a close with all the great hopes of his 2009 speech in Prague<\/a> still unfulfilled. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the architecture of nuclear arms control looks tatty and frayed in a world of escalating geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n

Whatever the drivers, the current \u2018ban\u2019 movement threatens a serious reorientation of global efforts to rein in nuclear weapons. It harks back to that earlier era of sullen placard-carriers, who believed that wanting<\/em> to put an end to nuclear weapons was all that was required to achieve the objective.<\/p>\n

Australia has long been a champion of nuclear arms control and (eventual) disarmament. And, yes, like about 40 other countries, it\u2019s also been a beneficiary of US extended nuclear assurances. But it\u2019s never believed that merely wanting nuclear disarmament would be enough to achieve it. It\u2019s true that arms controllers typically prize stability above disarmament\u2014but that\u2019s because one logically precedes the other. If we don\u2019t manage nuclear problems over the short-to-medium term, there\u2019s a good chance we\u2019ll never have to worry about negotiating the final steps to nuclear zero.<\/p>\n

And make no mistake, those steps would be hard work. As I\u2019ve written before<\/a>, there are three problems: getting to zero, staying at zero during future crises and designing a stable strategic order without relying on ultimate threats.<\/p>\n

Getting to zero\u2019s difficult not just because nuclear weapons speak a unique dialect of the language of deterrence, but because we honestly don\u2019t know how many nuclear warheads exist now. Staying at zero\u2019s problematic because countries facing defeat in future wars will always know there\u2019s an equaliser close to hand. A nuclear-free world would be haunted by the prospect of breakout\u2014and we have no guarantee that patterns of reconstruction would merely return us to the (mostly) stable balances we have today. As for designing a future strategic order without nuclear weapons, well, good luck with that. One lesson we should have learned from the pre-nuclear world is that conventional-force deterrence fails regularly.<\/p>\n

Those are the challenges that serious disarmers have to confront, and I hope Australia will continue to champion an agenda that addresses them. A treaty that delegitimises nuclear weapons\u2014if it does come to pass\u2014isn\u2019t a helpful way forward. The world doesn’t need another international treaty from which the key players are absent. And it looks like all of the key players\u2014all the nuclear weapon states and all countries benefitting directly from extended nuclear assurances\u2014would be absent from this one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve come full circle on nuclear disarmament. In the late 1950s, the Aldermaston Easter marches (from the British Atomic Weapons Establishment near Aldermaston to Trafalgar Square in London) urged British governments to \u2018Ban the Bomb\u2019. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":29628,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[176,599,474,206],"class_list":["post-29622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-barack-obama","tag-cold-war","tag-extended-nuclear-assurance","tag-non-proliferation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019 | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We\u2019ve come full circle on nuclear disarmament. In the late 1950s, the Aldermaston Easter marches (from the British Atomic Weapons Establishment near Aldermaston to Trafalgar Square in London) urged British governments to \u2018Ban the Bomb\u2019. ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-11-21T19:00:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-11-21T04:44:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/3889975311_11bd771010_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"426\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/3889975311_11bd771010_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/3889975311_11bd771010_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":426,\"caption\":\"Image courtesy of Flickr user Lamerie.\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/\",\"name\":\"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019 | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-11-21T19:00:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-11-21T04:44:02+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd\",\"name\":\"Rod Lyon\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Rod Lyon\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/rod-lyon\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019 | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019 | The Strategist","og_description":"We\u2019ve come full circle on nuclear disarmament. In the late 1950s, the Aldermaston Easter marches (from the British Atomic Weapons Establishment near Aldermaston to Trafalgar Square in London) urged British governments to \u2018Ban the Bomb\u2019. ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2016-11-21T19:00:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2016-11-21T04:44:02+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":426,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/3889975311_11bd771010_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Rod Lyon","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Rod Lyon","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/3889975311_11bd771010_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/3889975311_11bd771010_z.jpg","width":640,"height":426,"caption":"Image courtesy of Flickr user Lamerie."},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/","name":"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019 | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2016-11-21T19:00:45+00:00","dateModified":"2016-11-21T04:44:02+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-disarmament-narratives-spoilers\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Nuclear disarmament, narratives and \u2018spoilers\u2019"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/9b94d45f61c61c15e3313f55e2c145bd","name":"Rod Lyon","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9090df27d0a103459ebfc0282858e8c1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Rod Lyon"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/rod-lyon\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29622"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29630,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622\/revisions\/29630"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}