{"id":29693,"date":"2016-11-28T06:00:33","date_gmt":"2016-11-27T19:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29693"},"modified":"2016-11-25T16:33:14","modified_gmt":"2016-11-25T05:33:14","slug":"not-trans-not-pacific-not-partnership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/not-trans-not-pacific-not-partnership\/","title":{"rendered":"Not Trans, not Pacific, not Partnership"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

Vale the Trans-Pacific Partnership.<\/p>\n

The TPP has shattered<\/a>, or sunk<\/a>, or just slipped away<\/a>. The symbolism is a US retreat<\/a> from Asia. Donald Trump is changing the way America\u2019s substance is weighed by the region. The TPP was agreed and signed, but instead of ratification, it\u2019s cast off to rot. Trump\u2019s revolution rolls.<\/p>\n

In the power movement game, most change is incremental at the margins. On rare days, though, the centre goes, like the collapse of a great glacier. Suddenly the landscape is different. It\u2019s not just wars that reset the balance of power. Failures of will and renunciation of purpose do the same.<\/p>\n

Trump has launched Amexit<\/a> from Asia. Farewell the US\u2014at least for the next four years\u2014as the creator of globalisation and the champion of liberal internationalism. President Trump has no need of Asia\u2019s attempt at understandings and institutions, any more than he wants the TPP.<\/p>\n

The Trump message to Asia is that America isn\u2019t interested in writing or policing the rules and making the diplomatic weather (or the climate change weather).<\/p>\n

A doyen of Oz pundits, Paul Kelly, offers the power-shift judgement<\/a> with his dark description of Trump\u2019s \u2018devastating\u2019 TPP withdrawal:<\/p>\n

\u2018This enshrines a new protectionism at the heart of US power and cancels American faith in liberal globalism. It looms as a huge geo-strategic gift to China. The TPP was the economic arm of the US \u201cPivot\u201d to Asia. Trump\u2019s decision will undermine the region\u2019s confidence in US commitment to Asia. It\u2019s a blow to nations seeking to work with the US in the Asia\u2013Pacific and keen to tie US economic interests to US military interests in East Asia.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Such pronouncements echo what America\u2019s leadership has been saying this decade. Step forward Hillary Clinton in her Secretary of State memoir<\/a>. Hillary was clear that the Pivot was all about China<\/a>, linked to \u2018an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East\u2019.<\/p>\n

As the economic centrepiece of the Pivot, Hillary wrote, the TPP was \u2018a strategic initiative that would strengthen the position of the US in Asia\u2019.<\/p>\n

Clinton expressed in one sentence the reason why Japan was in the TPP and China wasn\u2019t: \u2018The TPP became the signature economic pillar of our strategy in Asia, demonstrating the benefits of a rules-based order and greater cooperation with the US.\u2019 Ah, those rules again.<\/p>\n

Hillary, of course, ditched the TPP in her run for president because many Democrats hate the deal as much as Trump. And here we come again to the substance. This ain\u2019t just about The Donald.<\/p>\n

Trump is the agent and expression of a big shift moment because he channels beliefs that speak to many Americans. That\u2019s what elections do; countries decide to change.<\/p>\n

Like many others, Australia has been emoting about this crunch moment<\/a> as it loomed. See Malcolm Turnbull\u2019s June speech<\/a> marking the 10th anniversary of the US Studies Centre in Sydney: \u2018A successful TPP will entrench the US as the strong, credible and enduring guarantor of the rules-based order in our region.\u2019<\/p>\n

The fear residing on the reverse side of that statement is the belief that a US which kills the TPP isn\u2019t willing to do duty as Asia\u2019s strong, credible and enduring guarantor. The US is still strong, but maybe it\u2019s no longer interested in the task.<\/p>\n

The TPP was Asian rule-writing and grand strategy performed in trade costume<\/a>. Trump has just stripped and streaked from the stadium, leaving the game to China and its trade vision\u2014the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).<\/p>\n

The view that America loses and China wins has been given a dollar dimension by the US President\u2019s Council of Economic Advisers<\/a>, which looked at China\u2013Japan goods exports if RCEP is born and TPP dies:<\/p>\n