{"id":29867,"date":"2016-12-08T14:30:49","date_gmt":"2016-12-08T03:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29867"},"modified":"2016-12-08T11:10:42","modified_gmt":"2016-12-08T00:10:42","slug":"trump-taiwan-means-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trump-taiwan-means-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, Taiwan and what it means for Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s stunning phone call with Taiwan\u2019s president Tsai Ing-wen has overturned decades of US diplomatic protocol when it comes to the thorny cross-Strait issue. The reaction of many analysts and media commentators has been negative, pointing to the risks of upsetting the US-Sino relationship, undoubtedly the most consequential for stability in the Asia\u2013Pacific. But before canvassing some of the risks, it\u2019s important to see the Trump-Tsai conversation as a turn that could actually deliver positive results for cross-Strait stability as well as broader regional security.<\/p>\n

In recent years, US \u2018strategic ambiguity\u2019 over the Taiwan issue\u2014leaving open the question of whether it would defend the island in the event of an unprovoked Chinese military attack\u2014has arguably failed to stymie Beijing\u2019s policies to strategically suffocate Taipei. Instead, Beijing\u2019s growing capacity to pose a conventional military challenge to US forces in a future Taiwan Strait contingency, in combination with Taiwan\u2019s economic dependence on mainland China, led to growing concerns about whether the US might abandon Taiwan sooner or later. Moreover, since Tsai\u2019s election in January 2016 Beijing has attempted to further limit Taiwan\u2019s international breathing space to coerce her government into formally accepting the \u20181992 Consensus\u2019 as a basis for cross-Strait cooperation, despite the fact that she implicitly recognised it.<\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve argued in a co-authored ASPI report<\/a> earlier this year, amid changing power dynamics, cross-Strait stability increasingly depends on a more visible US commitment to assisting Taiwan against Chinese coercion. That\u2019s particularly the case since Taiwan\u2019s democratic consolidation makes a unification on Beijing\u2019s terms ever more unlikely, potentially raising the risk for escalation. Trump\u2019s calculated move is likely to cause greater uncertainty in the minds of China\u2019s decision-makers about America\u2019s reaction to efforts to forcefully unite with Taiwan. If so, that\u2019s a good thing since Chinese restraint over Taiwan is the key element for cross-Strait stability.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s call could also signal a greater willingness to push back more generally against China\u2019s assertive behaviour in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Arguably, the US \u2018rebalance\u2019 has lost some of its momentum and certainly hasn\u2019t stopped Beijing\u2019s advances in eroding the maritime rules-based order. Trump\u2019s senior advisors on Asia\u2013Pacific security\u2014including Alexander Gray and Peter Navarro<\/a>\u2014reflect a different school of thought than the one exemplified by the White House over the past eight years: in order to maintain its leadership position the US needs to resolutely push back against China\u2019s assertiveness within a \u2018peace through strength\u2019 framework. Again, if China moderates its behaviour in the face of a more determined Trump administration, regional stability could be enhanced rather than weakened.<\/p>\n

However, there are considerable risks involved in Trump\u2019s approach. The first is that upon taking office in January next year, President Trump will sacrifice the broader strategic objectives in the US\u2013Sino relationship for his strong support for Taipei. China will certainly test his resolve on Taiwan and a failure to follow-through would send a bad signal to the region about America\u2019s credibility. Likewise, Trump\u2019s ongoing enthusiasm for Taiwan could prove a double-edged sword for Taipei if he publicly offers too much diplomatic and military support. After all, Taiwan has a delicate relationship with China which it doesn’t want to see derailed.<\/p>\n

The second major risk is that the Trump administration fails to develop a coherent and effective grand strategy for the Asia\u2013Pacific, and particularly for dealing with China and America\u2019s allies. If the conversation with Tsai was the start of a rather erratic display of unilateralism smacking of efforts to \u2018contain\u2019 China, the region is indeed in for a very rocky ride. It\u2019s likely that even America\u2019s closest allies, including Australia, would have great difficulty supporting such an approach. China isn\u2019t the Soviet Union, and regional countries would prefer Washington to continue the delicate balance between competition and cooperation with Beijing. It’s thus imperative that the Trump administration speak to allies and partners about its vision for regional stability, and to seek an early buy-in.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s Taiwan gambit also potentially has significant implications for Australia. Canberra takes a key interest in the future of US\u2013China relations, not least since our close alliance with the US would raise serious questions about commitments in the event of a direct conflict between Washington and Beijing. It\u2019s entirely possible that Trump\u2019s administration will seek to strengthen its relationship with Taiwan and that it\u2019ll encourage allies such as Australia to also increase their engagement.<\/p>\n

For Australia (and the rest of the region), Trump\u2019s Asia\u2013Pacific policy promises to be less acquiescent vis-\u00e0-vis China\u2019s attempts to increase its regional influence through coercive means. That carries both opportunities and risks for Australia. We have a fundamental interest in preserving the rules-based order in the region, and absent US leadership, that objective becomes enormously difficult to achieve given China\u2019s growing power. However, an overtly aggressive, unilateral US China policy would not only slowly erode the alliance, it would probably also be self-defeating.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s stunning phone call with Taiwan\u2019s president Tsai Ing-wen has overturned decades of US diplomatic protocol when it comes to the thorny cross-Strait issue. 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