{"id":29880,"date":"2016-12-12T14:30:55","date_gmt":"2016-12-12T03:30:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=29880"},"modified":"2018-10-30T17:06:56","modified_gmt":"2018-10-30T06:06:56","slug":"trump-one-china-regional-stability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trump-one-china-regional-stability\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, \u2018One China\u2019 and regional stability"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

As a number of commentators\u00a0have observed<\/a>, the phone call between Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen and US president-elect Donald Trump has set a cat among the pigeons. It has breached a practice in place since 1979 whereby the US recognises Taiwan as part of \u2018One China\u2019. While there have been quiet written communications between Taiwan\u2019s leadership and America\u2019s presidents, there hasn\u2019t, until now, been verbal communication by presidents or presidents-elect.<\/p>\n

The call was staffed by Trump\u2019s transition team. Trump is surrounded by advisers whose suggestions range from using the Taiwan relationship to pressure China while not breaching the \u2018One China\u2019 policy, to conducting a diplomatic build-up in Taiwan and \u2018ultimately restoring full diplomatic recognition\u2019, as one potential appointee as secretary of state, John Bolton, advocated earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Two members of the transition team, Alexander Gray and Peter Navarro,\u00a0argued<\/a>, just before the election, for a substantial quantitative and qualitative increase in arms sales to Taiwan. They said that while President Obama was right to pivot to Asia, the administration had been \u2018feckless and mendacious\u2019 in its implementation, alienating the leadership of the Philippines and the military government in Thailand. In effect, they suggested Obama\u2019s careful work through Asia\u2019s multilateral channels and deep diplomatic engagement with Beijing should be replaced by a \u2018peace through strength approach\u2019. In their view, America needs to boost its military capabilities in the Asia\u2013Pacific, and indeed that that\u2019s what the region truly expects and respects from American engagement.<\/p>\n

This school of critics believes that Obama\u2019s policy has smoothed the way for China\u2019s regional supremacy, hasn\u2019t been an effective check on China\u2019s behaviour in the South China Sea, and has undermined confidence among Washington\u2019s friends and allies in the region. China\u2019s description of its South China Sea claim as a \u2018core interest\u2019, previously only used by Beijing to describe its position on Taiwan, has devalued the term\u2019s meaning. So in a sense this is a chicken coming home to roost. Nevertheless, should Trump continue high-level verbal dialogue with Taiwan the impact would be profound on Sino-American relations.<\/p>\n

Quoted in an\u00a0article by Jane Perlez last week<\/a>, Shen Dingli of Fudan University said:<\/p>\n

I would close our embassy in Washington and withdraw our diplomats. I would be perfectly happy to end the relationship. I don\u2019t know how you are then going to expect China to cooperate on Iran and North Korea and climate change. You are going to ask Taiwan for that?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While the implications aren\u2019t quite that severe, taken together with Trump\u2019s plan to declare China a currency manipulator and broader threats to impose punitive tariffs, any further moves to change the character of relations with Taiwan would bring volatility to US\u2013China relations.<\/p>\n

The problem is, as Newt Gingrich said a few months ago, \u2018Trump doesn\u2019t know what he doesn\u2019t know.\u2019 He knows very little about the complex set of arrangements between Taipei, Beijing and Washington. They\u2019ve allowed Taiwan to evolve into a prosperous democracy and allowed the US to establish a position to deter the realisation of \u2018One China\u2019 by anything less than peaceful means. China has accepted that, but dissenters remain in China, including in elements of the PLA which continue to build up capacity in order to forcefully seize Taiwan. No longer can the US operate surface ships in the Taiwan Strait in a hostile environment. Even with activity east of Taiwan, war gaming by organisations such as RAND have suggested American carriers would be highly at risk. In a worst-case scenario, the combined effects of the trade and Taiwan initiatives would strengthen the hand of those in Beijing wanting to bring forward military means to resolve unification.<\/p>\n

One recollects here foreign minister Alexander Downer\u2019s suggestions in August 2004 that a Chinese attack on Taiwan wouldn\u2019t necessarily trigger ANZUS: \u2018The ANZUS Treaty is invoked in the event of one of our two countries, Australia or the United States, being attacked, so some other military activity elsewhere in the world \u2026 doesn\u2019t automatically invoke the ANZUS Treaty.\u2019 A few months later I became\u00a0opposition leader. I then had the Chinese embassy quietly advised that, as such a move would invariably involve US military forces, the treaty would be applicable if there was a Labor government. Australia couldn\u2019t afford for the situation to get out of hand then, and it can\u2019t now.<\/p>\n

The Australian government should at least be getting a read out on possible directions that Trump will try to navigate Washington\u2019s relationship with Beijing. It appears that Trump will declare China a \u2018currency manipulator\u2019, and that his constituency expects him to move on the US\u2013China trade relationship. For our part, Australia would want him to pick his fights carefully, mindful of the economic and security consequences for China, the US and all of us in the middle.<\/p>\n

If the Australian government understands what\u2019s at stake, now\u2019s the time for quiet advice to the Trump team. As\u00a0Taiwan has been able to develop as\u00a0it has wanted and its economy is deeply integrated with that of the mainland, Trump should let the Taiwan initiative end here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a number of commentators\u00a0have observed, the phone call between Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen and US president-elect Donald Trump has set a cat among the pigeons. It has breached a practice in place since 1979 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":481,"featured_media":29881,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[131,1056,52,1428,392],"class_list":["post-29880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-anzus","tag-bilateral-relations","tag-china","tag-donald-trump","tag-taiwan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump, \u2018One China\u2019 and regional stability | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trump-one-china-regional-stability\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump, \u2018One China\u2019 and regional stability | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a number of commentators\u00a0have observed, the phone call between Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen and US president-elect Donald Trump has set a cat among the pigeons. 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