{"id":30121,"date":"2016-12-23T12:00:14","date_gmt":"2016-12-23T01:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30121"},"modified":"2016-12-23T07:56:59","modified_gmt":"2016-12-22T20:56:59","slug":"russia-unrequited-love","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/","title":{"rendered":"From Russia with unrequited love"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"vpsa\"<\/figure>\n

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has assiduously courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with him more than a dozen times<\/a> in four years. This month he hosted Putin in Tokyo and in his hometown of Nagato (famed for its onsen<\/em>, or natural hot springs). But Abe\u2019s courtship has so far yielded little for Japan, and much for Russia.<\/p>\n

Abe\u2019s diplomatic overtures to Putin are integral to his broader strategy to position Japan as a counterweight to China, and to rebalance power in Asia, where Japan, Russia, China, and India form a strategic quadrangle. Abe has already built a close relationship with India, and he sees improved relations with Russia\u2014with which Japan never formally made peace after World War II\u2014as the missing ingredient for a regional power equilibrium.<\/p>\n

But Abe\u2019s trust-building efforts with Russia are not aimed only at checking Chinese aggression. He also wants Russia to return its southernmost Kuril Islands\u2014a resource-rich area known as the Northern Territories in Japan\u2014which the Soviet Union seized just after the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. In exchange, Abe has offered economic aid, investments in Russia\u2019s neglected Far East, and major energy deals.<\/p>\n

Abe has, however, encountered several obstacles. For starters, Japan is a participant in the US-led sanctions that were imposed on Russia after it annexed Crimea in March 2014. These sanctions have pushed Russia closer to its traditional rival, China; and Putin has publicly identified the sanctions as a hindrance to concluding a peace treaty with Japan.<\/p>\n

In response to Abe\u2019s overtures, Putin has doggedly tried to drive a hard bargain. Russia has bolstered its defenses on the four disputed islands, and, just prior to this month\u2019s summit, he told<\/a> the Japanese media that the current territorial arrangement suits Russian interests. \u2018We think that we have no territorial problems,\u2019 he said. \u2018It\u2019s Japan that thinks that it has a territorial problem with Russia.\u2019<\/p>\n

The US-led sanctions regime and low oil prices have battered the Russian economy, which is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2016. Thus, Putin is more reluctant than ever to offer territorial concessions, lest it tarnish his domestic image as a staunch defender of Russian national interests.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that Abe left the recent \u201consen<\/em> summit\u201d with dashed hopes of resolving the territorial dispute, while Putin returned home with 68 new commercial accords. Many of the new agreements are symbolic, but some are substantive, including deals worth US$2.5 billion<\/a> and an agreement to set up a US$1 billion bilateral-investment fund.<\/p>\n

Under the latter agreement, Japan and Russia are supposed create a \u2018special framework\u2019 for joint economic activities on the disputed islands. But the plan has already run into trouble. Peter Shelakhaev, a senior Russian official who leads the government\u2019s Far East Investment and Export Agency, has indicated<\/a> that there are legal hurdles to establishing such a framework, and that Japanese firms doing business on the Kurils would have to pay taxes to Russia. If Japan did that, however, it would effectively be recognising Russia\u2019s jurisdiction over the islands.<\/p>\n

Abe has thus been denied the legacy that he sought, while Putin has succeeded in easing Russia\u2019s international isolation. Abe was the first G7 leader to hold a summit with Putin after Russia annexed Crimea, and now Russia has won Japan\u2019s economic cooperation, too.<\/p>\n

Japan is the only G7 country that has a territorial dispute with Russia, and it is clearly more eager to reach a deal than the Kremlin is. But this has only strengthened Russia\u2019s hand. While Japan has softened its position, and signaled that it may accept only a partial return of the islands, Russia has grown only more intransigent. After the recent summit, Abe revealed<\/a> that Putin now seems to be reneging on a 1956 agreement between Japan and the Soviet Union, which stipulates that the smaller two of the four islands will be returned to Japan after a peace treaty is signed.<\/p>\n

As it happens, this year marks the 60th anniversary of that joint declaration<\/a>, which was widely viewed as a breakthrough at the time. The Kremlin is now suggesting that its commitment to fulfilling the declaration was conditional on Japan not joining any security alliance against Russia. And Putin has expressed concerns that the 1960 Japan-US Security Treaty<\/a> would extend to the disputed islands if they were returned, thus allowing the US to establish a military presence there.<\/p>\n

Japan is in no position to address Russia\u2019s concerns. It cannot opt out of the US-led sanctions regime; and it cannot exempt the disputed Kurils from its security treaty with the US, especially now that it has been urging the US to provide an explicit commitment to defend the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, over which China claims sovereignty.<\/p>\n

Putin, for his part, appears smugly content with his negotiating position. Not only did he arrive almost three hours late to the onsen <\/em>summit, in keeping with his habit<\/a> of leaving foreign leaders waiting; he also declined a Japanese government gift\u2014a male companion for his native Japanese Akita dog, which Japan gave him in 2012.<\/p>\n

There is little hope now that Abe will see tangible returns on the political capital he has invested in cultivating Putin. And Japan\u2019s dilemma will only deepen. US President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s desire to improve relations with Russia may give Abe leeway to continue wooing Putin; but if Russia gets the US in its corner, it won\u2019t need Japan anymore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has assiduously courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with him more than a dozen times in four years. This month he hosted Putin in Tokyo and in his hometown of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":30123,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[135,163,507,345,329,744],"class_list":["post-30121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-japan","tag-russia","tag-shinzo-abe","tag-summit","tag-territorial-disputes","tag-vladimir-putin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFrom Russia with unrequited love | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From Russia with unrequited love | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has assiduously courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with him more than a dozen times in four years. This month he hosted Putin in Tokyo and in his hometown of ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-12-23T01:00:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-12-22T20:56:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/VPSA.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1168\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"719\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/VPSA.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/VPSA.png\",\"width\":1168,\"height\":719},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/\",\"name\":\"From Russia with unrequited love | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-12-23T01:00:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-12-22T20:56:59+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"From Russia with unrequited love\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\",\"name\":\"Brahma Chellaney\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Brahma Chellaney\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/brahma-chellaney\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"From Russia with unrequited love | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"From Russia with unrequited love | The Strategist","og_description":"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has assiduously courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with him more than a dozen times in four years. This month he hosted Putin in Tokyo and in his hometown of ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2016-12-23T01:00:14+00:00","article_modified_time":"2016-12-22T20:56:59+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1168,"height":719,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/VPSA.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Brahma Chellaney","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Brahma Chellaney","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/VPSA.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/VPSA.png","width":1168,"height":719},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/","name":"From Russia with unrequited love | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2016-12-23T01:00:14+00:00","dateModified":"2016-12-22T20:56:59+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russia-unrequited-love\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"From Russia with unrequited love"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124","name":"Brahma Chellaney","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Brahma Chellaney"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/brahma-chellaney\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30121"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/482"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30121"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30121\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30127,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30121\/revisions\/30127"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}