{"id":30179,"date":"2017-01-11T06:00:49","date_gmt":"2017-01-10T19:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30179"},"modified":"2017-01-10T15:42:13","modified_gmt":"2017-01-10T04:42:13","slug":"asia-2017-strategic-transformation-accelerates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/asia-2017-strategic-transformation-accelerates\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia 2017: strategic transformation accelerates"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"8502151556_b276fea761_z\"<\/figure>\n

In a recent podcast<\/a> for Foreign Policy<\/em>, editor David Rothkopf interviewed Thomas Friedman about his latest book<\/a>\u2014essentially an argument for why, in 2017, we should feel optimistic about the future. Friedman\u2019s core argument is that we\u2019re living in an age of \u2018three non-linear accelerations\u2019, which include: Moore\u2019s law (growth in IT capabilities), the market (growth in digital globalisation) and Mother Nature (dramatic changes in biodiversity, climate and population). I have to say that I find Friedman\u2019s argument suggestive but not compelling. Indeed, it\u2019s reminiscent of an argument I recall from the early 1990s\u2014namely that Chinese authoritarianism couldn\u2019t endure because Madonna and the internet were on our side.<\/p>\n

But Rothkopf and Friedman have made me think more specifically about what the Asian strategic environment looks like in 2017 and, in particular, to confront the question of whether that environment is more worrying now than it was in earlier years. Depressingly, the answer is \u2018yes\u2019. Long-running trends (like the growth of Asian economies and militaries, power diffusion, and\u2014because of technological change\u2014increasing uncertainties about comparative power balances) are being exacerbated by a geographical and positional competition between Asian great powers, doubts over the future US role in the region, and a heightened risk profile at the key flash-points (Korean peninsula, Taiwan and South Asia). Those flash-points aren\u2019t new, but regional strategists have long understood that if major conflict broke out at any of them the casualties would number in the millions.<\/p>\n

On the other side of the ledger, forces driving cohesion, cooperation and liberalism\u2014we might think of them in terms of the Kantian tripod of economic interdependence, international institutions and democracy\u2014seem to be weakening, as opposition to globalisation rises, the TPP collapses, nationalism surges, China\u2019s economic growth slows, and regional democracies struggle. Both President Rodrigo Duterte\u2019s policies in the Philippines, and political life in Bangkok after the military coup and the death of the king suggest a higher regional tolerance for authoritarianism, even if sometimes of a populist hue. Meanwhile, the political scandal in Seoul (over influence-peddling) is complicating US relations with a third Asian ally.<\/p>\n

True, none of those factors constitutes an automatic pathway to war. But, put together, they\u2019re valid reasons for at least some degree of unease about what the forthcoming year might hold. At a minimum, they suggest a need for a heightened vigilance in relation to small crises which could spiral quickly in Asia this year. But I\u2019d venture to say they actually signal something more ominous\u2014namely, a long-term shift in regional geopolitics. The tempo of strategic transformation in Asia may be quickening.<\/p>\n

It probably doesn\u2019t need to be spelt out, but the likely shifts won\u2019t play to Australia\u2019s strategic advantage. For Australia to feel comfortable within those shifting geopolitical relationships, it has to source new inputs in favour of a liberal, stable, prosperous regional order. And the problem, of course, isn\u2019t that no<\/em> such inputs are available\u2014there are, after all, regular and supportive contacts between Australia, Japan, India and Indonesia, for example. But the inputs available so far are too thin to assure regional policy-makers that the order can survive. The latest bout of tension between Australia and Indonesia\u2014like the coolness in the Australia\u2013Japan strategic relationship in the wake of the submarine tender decision\u2014is a reminder of the brittleness of those contacts. Putting it in the language of the current \u2018hub-and-spokes\u2019 order, \u2018spoke-to-spoke\u2019 and \u2018spoke-to-nonspoke\u2019 bridges, while promising, can\u2019t bear much traffic at the moment.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s not merely going to be Australia\u2019s conclusion. Other regional states who sit down to do the assessment are likely to arrive at the same answer. That leaves us with three options, none a perfect solution for a more difficult region.<\/p>\n

First, we work to nurture a closer relationship with the US even while its relative strategic position slips and its priorities shift towards an agenda of \u2018America First\u2019\u2014because even a superpower in relative decline makes a good ally, and because Washington has a proven record of being a liberal order-builder in Asia. Problem? How many eggs can we put in one basket?<\/p>\n

Second, we work harder at building bridges in Asia\u2014both to other US allies (Japan and South Korea) and to other key players (India, Indonesia and Singapore). Problem? The bridges need heavy-duty engineering in terms of shared commitments\u2014not merely in terms of others\u2019 commitment to us, but vice versa.<\/p>\n

Third, we push the notion of defence self-reliance more seriously than we have in the past. Problem? We\u2019re currently building capacity too slowly\u2014the multi-decade timetable for the Collins replacement a case in point\u2014and, perhaps, too conservatively. In a changing Asia, we should be looking for gamechangers\u2014not least because others will be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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