{"id":30251,"date":"2017-01-19T06:00:36","date_gmt":"2017-01-18T19:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30251"},"modified":"2017-01-18T11:59:10","modified_gmt":"2017-01-18T00:59:10","slug":"industry-cart-strategic-horse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/industry-cart-strategic-horse\/","title":{"rendered":"The industry cart and the strategic horse"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

The Australian Naval Institute recently published the inaugural edition of its Australian Naval Review<\/a>. I was pleased to be asked to contribute to the first issue, and subscribers to the Institute will be able to read my paper Australia<\/em>\u2019s naval shipbuilding plans: guided by strategy or industry?<\/em> I set out to examine the stated rationale for the government\u2019s ambitious program of naval ship and submarine building, and to test that against the timeframes we\u2019ve been told to expect from the nation\u2019s shipyards.<\/p>\n

The central idea in the paper\u2014that there\u2019s a mismatch between Australia\u2019s strategic and defence industry timeframes\u2014won\u2019t be much of a surprise to dedicated Strategist<\/em> readers. I\u2019ve made the point before, and Mark and I have made the same point about the future submarines<\/a>.<\/p>\n

To see why there\u2019s a problem, have a look at these excerpts from the 2000, 2009 and 2016 Defence White Papers:<\/p>\n

DWP 2000
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2018China, as the country with the fastest growing security influence in the region, is an increasingly important strategic interlocutor for Australia.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

DWP 2009
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2018In Northeast Asia, China is likely to \u2026 continue \u2026 its foreshadowed core military modernisation. Over the long term, this could affect the strategic reach and global postures of the major powers. \u2026Any future that might see a potential contraction of US strategic presence in the Asia-Pacific region, with a requirement for allies and friends to do more in their own regions, would adversely affect Australian interests, regional stability and global security.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

DWP 2016
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2018While China will not match the global strategic weight of the United States, the growth of China\u2019s national power, including its military modernisation, means China\u2019s policies and actions will have a major impact on the stability of the Indo-Pacific to 2035. China\u2019s Navy is now the largest in Asia. By 2020 China\u2019s submarine force is likely to grow to more than 70 submarines.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In the 15 years between the 2000 and 2016 white papers, the Australian government\u2019s assessment of China\u2019s increasing capabilities went from being almost incidental to having \u2018a major impact\u2019 on the region\u2019s stability in the next two decades. Consistent with that, last year\u2019s White Paper worried about the stability of the Indo\u2013Pacific in 2035.<\/p>\n

But on current plans, the first of Australia\u2019s future submarines won\u2019t be commissioned much before 2035. And it\u2019ll be \u2018around 2050\u2019 before the RAN submarine fleet will reach 12 boats. Meanwhile, the PLA-N will likely have \u2018more than 70 submarines\u2019 just four years from now. If the Australian government\u2019s taking the intelligence agencies\u2019 strategic assessments which underpin white paper discussions seriously, it\u2019s not obvious from those plans.<\/p>\n

If there\u2019s a strategic shock of some kind, such as escalation of the current territorial disputes in the South or East China Seas, or a conflict sparked by North Korea, we could find ourselves wanting more defence capability much sooner than is currently planned. In that case, we\u2019d have two broad options. We could try to increase the local production rate, with all the challenges of suddenly finding the required skills and capacity in a local industry that\u2019d been gearing up for a long steady production run. Or we could supplement local production with purchases from overseas suppliers, but at a time when other nations will presumably also be in the market for equipment coming off their production lines. Either way, we\u2019d struggle to acquire capability quickly enough for it to play a role in whatever contingency played out.<\/p>\n

Or we could be lucky, and the region\u2019s strategic shifts could play out benignly. It might be, for example, that the \u2018nine-dash line\u2019 in the South China Sea is the limit of China\u2019s ambition. When the area\u2019s secured to China\u2019s satisfaction, perhaps it\u2019ll get on with business and a \u2018new normal\u2019 strategic equilibrium will emerge. In that case, our leisurely timetable for fleet recapitalisation will be acceptable\u2014and future governments could even find ourselves revising our plans for fleet expansion downwards.<\/p>\n

Whichever way you look at it, we\u2019re in a nowhere situation at the moment. Australia\u2019s strategic rhetoric is pro-ANZUS and pro-military expansion because we\u2019re worried about the next 20 years. We also want a steady-state industrial base for our naval ship requirements. The trouble is that we can\u2019t have it all. Something will have to give\u2014either the industry cart has to go back behind the strategy horse, or we need to rethink our strategy.<\/p>\n

Let me finish this piece with a new thought. One possible strategy change, which would alter our defence requirements significantly, would be rethinking ANZUS. DWP 2016 emphasised shoring up the alliance, and assessed that the US will be both willing and able to act in ways consonant with our interests. Up until recently Australian strategists have worried about a potential cooling of American commitment. But, like Goldilocks, we\u2019re discovering that our porridge could also be too hot. We\u2019ve already seen hints of that, with unhelpful American musings about unilaterally changing the decades-old \u2018one China\u2019 policy<\/a>, or by implicitly threatening force in the South China Sea<\/a>. If that continues, we need to think hard about how we position ourselves. The worst case is that the United States unnecessarily precipitates a conflict, either by design or by misadventure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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