{"id":30387,"date":"2017-02-02T13:49:42","date_gmt":"2017-02-02T02:49:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30387"},"modified":"2017-02-03T10:55:04","modified_gmt":"2017-02-02T23:55:04","slug":"national-security-wrap-52","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-wrap-52\/","title":{"rendered":"National security wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"radio-1773304_1920\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Beat <\/strong><\/p>\n

AFP to stay in PNG<\/em><\/p>\n

Australian Federal Police involvement in Papua New Guinea has been extended<\/a> until November 2018, when Port Moresby will host an Asia\u2013Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. $48 million in funding will enable 56 AFP personnel to train PNG counterparts in security capabilities, while 17 other officers will continue to support<\/a> best practice. The AFP\u2019s presence strengthens Australia\u2013PNG relations\u2014something Canberra’s keen to do to prevent Beijing \u2018filling the breach<\/a>.\u2019<\/p>\n

Youth crime in the NT<\/em><\/p>\n

Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner announced<\/a> on Tuesday a small task-group to reduce youth crime. 18 police officers will work directly with at-risk youths, implementing early intervention strategies. The move continues government action and facility upgrades<\/a> aimed at curbing rising crime\u2014even as advocacy groups argue that the related \u2018crime-wave\u2019 rhetoric is unjustified<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Coups, then and when<\/em><\/p>\n

Turkey has commenced trials of 270 people<\/a> accused of participating in the attempted coup last July, including the alleged mastermind and cleric Fethullah Gulen, trialled in absentia<\/em>.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, researchers have predicted the global likelihood of coups<\/a> in 2017. Using statistical modelling<\/a>,<\/em> countries are ranked according to their risk of coup d\u2019\u00e9tat. Dubious first place honours go to troubled<\/a> Burundi, which has a coup probability of 0.12; Thailand and the Central African Republic tie for second, while Australia<\/a> jostled for the wooden spoon, having the sixth lowest probability of coup in the world, with just 0.006.<\/p>\n

CT Scan <\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump: week one<\/em><\/p>\n

Employees of the State Department this week drafted a \u2018dissent letter<\/a>\u2019, warning the White House that the decision to temporarily ban immigration from seven Muslim countries could weaken US counterterrorism operations and threaten national security. Unsurprisingly, they aren\u2019t the only ones with concerns; Patrick Skinner of the Soufan Group called the order a \u2018simple insult to a complex problem<\/a>\u2019 and warned that its implication could increase local opposition in the blacklisted countries, thus complicating CT operations. The Atlantic<\/em> meanwhile argues that Trump\u2019s order serves to reinforce the victimhood narrative<\/a> at the core of the Islamic State\u2019s recruitment methods, potentially hindering counterterrorism efforts and undermining the government\u2019s counternarratives. A thought-provoking piece by Robert Pape, \u2018Trump is making ISIS great again\u2019<\/a>, is also worth a look.<\/p>\n

De-radicalisation through repluralisation? <\/em><\/p>\n

Wired<\/em> has published a seriously interesting piece on a controversial new CVE program which aims to reform home-grown terrorists through a process known as \u2018repluralisation\u2019<\/a>. The process involves the careful reintroduction of alternative values and behaviours into a radicalised individual\u2019s life in an effort to engage and remind individuals of their lives before turning to jihadism. For more info on the process and the project itself see here<\/a>. For a similar, evidence-based approach to CVE, visit the Moonshot CVE<\/a> webpage. This program aims to build digital capacity in an effort to counter jihadi narratives online and effectively respond to violent extremism.<\/p>\n

Checkpoint <\/strong><\/p>\n

Coming to America? Not under Trump<\/em><\/p>\n

A series of executive orders<\/a> have recently been handed down from the White House in order to enact President Trump\u2019s controversial border protection policies.\u00a0Looking at the effects on home soil, the White House has backtracked<\/a> from earlier assurances<\/a> to follow through with the refugee resettlement deal, saying that it\u2019s still under consideration. This has caused confusion. But Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull remains confident<\/a> that the deal will sail ahead, despite reports<\/a> that Trump called it \u2018the worst deal ever\u2019 during their phone call last weekend. Turnbull\u2019s apparently enjoyed greater success in extracting a promise to exempt Australians with dual citizenship<\/a> from the “Muslim ban”. Were the US to honour the deal, it would only be because of its \u2018longstanding relationship with Australia\u2019<\/a>, and refugees would be subject to extreme vetting procedures. Indeed, how this all plays out may set the mood<\/a>\u00a0[paywalled] for how the Trump administration approaches future cooperation with Canberra.<\/p>\n

A wall order<\/em><\/p>\n

Adding insult to injury, Trump also signed an executive order<\/a> to commence construction of the wall along America\u2019s border with Mexico. Who\u2019ll pick up the bill is another question: Executive orders aren\u2019t able to appropriate funds<\/a> from the US Treasury, and Mexican President Enrique Pe\u00f1a\u00a0Nieto has again refused to shout<\/a> this round. A feasibility study for the wall can be found here<\/a>, but economists agree<\/a> that the devastating effects on both US and Mexican economies would ironically increase illegal migration.<\/p>\n

Asia\u2019s thriving drug trade<\/em><\/p>\n

For a fascinating read unrelated to Trump, see Roderic Broadhurt\u2019s\u00a0piece<\/a> on how East Asia\u2019s increasingly wealthy urban class has revitalised the region\u2019s thriving drug trade. Interestingly, the proliferation of FTAs and infrastructure connectivity in the region have also enabled the expansion of its drug networks.<\/a><\/p>\n

First Responder <\/strong><\/p>\n

Critical infrastructure takes centre stage<\/em><\/p>\n

The Australian government launched<\/a> the Critical Infrastructure Centre (CIC) on 23 January. The CIC will take a whole-of-government approach to national security risk assessments of critical infrastructure, including identifying critical infrastructure, providing coordinated security advice, developing risk management strategies and supporting compliance. The government says the CIC provides more \u2018certainty and clarity to investors and industry on the types of assets that will attract national security scrutiny<\/a>.’ Initially, its focus will be on the electricity, water and port sectors; a discussion paper which sets out the anticipated challenges and asks for comment is expected soon. See here<\/a> for a take on what the CIC means for foreign investment.<\/p>\n

Radio silence<\/em><\/p>\n

As of 31 January, the ABC<\/em>\u2019s shortwave radio service to parts of the Pacific and Papua New Guinea has been turned off<\/a> (though it looks as though fisherman in the Top End have been thrown a temporary lifeline<\/a>). The shortwave service has long communicated critical emergency information, and was able to continue broadcasting weather warnings even if local stations were cut off<\/a>. The move was part of the ABC<\/em>\u2019s commitment<\/a> to phase-out outdated technology in favour of digital radio and online services, but that\u2019s cold comfort to residents of those many remote places with limited or no access to the internet or a FM signal. See here<\/a> for some analysis from ASPI\u2019s Graeme Dobell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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