{"id":30422,"date":"2017-02-03T06:00:40","date_gmt":"2017-02-02T19:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30422"},"modified":"2017-02-03T07:42:11","modified_gmt":"2017-02-02T20:42:11","slug":"phone-call-trump-turnbulls-alliance-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/phone-call-trump-turnbulls-alliance-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"That phone call: Trump and Turnbull\u2019s alliance challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-30423 size-full\" title=\"Image courtesy of Flickr user U.S. Embassy, Jakarta.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/6316604673_6bd82f4b04_z.jpg\" alt=\"Image courtesy of Flickr user U.S. Embassy, Jakarta.\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/6316604673_6bd82f4b04_z.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/6316604673_6bd82f4b04_z-205x137.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/6316604673_6bd82f4b04_z-332x221.jpg 332w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Prime Minister\u2019s Office will be keen to downplay the significance of last weekend\u2019s phone call between Malcolm Turnbull and US President Donald Trump, but both the call and the fact that it leaked in such detail, are extraordinary and unparalleled in the history of the Australian\u2013American alliance.<\/p>\n<p>According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/no-gday-mate-on-call-with-australian-pm-trump-badgers-and-brags\/2017\/02\/01\/88a3bfb0-e8bf-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.6c85686ec363&amp;tid=sm_tw\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a> from <em>The Washington Post<\/em>, Trump\u2019s call with Turnbull came at the end of a long session of calls with leaders from countries including France, Germany and Russia. In a description that\u2019s surely unprecedented in such company, Trump complained to Turnbull that theirs was \u2018the worst call by far.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>The crux of their disagreement was allegedly the refugee deal negotiated by Canberra in the dying days of the Obama administration, which has been under a cloud since Trump\u2019s election last November. Branding it the \u2018worst deal ever\u2019 Trump complained that he was going to \u2018get killed politically\u2019 over it and, at one point, reportedly accused the PM over seeking to export the \u2018next Boston bombers.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>The report tells us little about Turnbull\u2019s side of the conversation beyond suggesting that they move on to discuss other issues of pressing importance, at which point the President reportedly moved to end the call. While the status of the deal itself remains unclear, Trump has reportedly stated that it\u2019s his \u2018intention\u2019 honour the agreement. Based on that combination of words and subsequent White House statements, that all seems highly uncertain If Trump does honour the deal, he will surely expect a <em>quid pro quo. <\/em>As counterintuitive as it seems, Turnbull may be better off dropping the deal himself, thus removing Trump\u2019s leverage. Whatever the outcome, it\u2019s clear that involving an issue as politically charged as asylum seekers in our key alliance relationship was ill advised.<\/p>\n<p>What does all this mean for the ANZUS alliance? First, it\u2019s potentially damaging to the way the alliance is perceived here in Australia. Traditionally the Australian public continue their support for ANZUS even when they disapprove of a particular president (George W. Bush, for example) but the latest revelations break new ground; managing the domestic fallout will be challenging. A strong alliance requires public support, which shouldn\u2019t be taken for granted. The ALP have already taken a strong anti-Trump line. It may be that the temptation to morph that into an anti-ANZUS line and to capitalise on the perception of a bullied Prime Minister is too great for the Opposition to pass up.<\/p>\n<p>Second, the call demonstrates two very different approaches from Canberra and Washington. Turnbull, in his public statements and in traditional Canberra style, has appealed to the rich shared history between Australia and the US, as well as the common values of both countries. Trump, on the other hand, is taking a purely transactional approach. A long history of shared exploits on the battlefield cuts little ice with the Donald. \u2018<em>What have you done for me lately?\u2019<\/em> is his core concern.<\/p>\n<p>The dynamic isn\u2019t unprecedented. The history of the alliance is a history of Australian sentimentalism versus American pragmatism. Robert Menzies discovered that when Jack Kennedy told him to expect no US assistance should he find himself in a war with Indonesia in the early 1960s. John Howard discovered it when he launched his intervention in East Timor with the expectation that US boots on the ground would be forthcoming. However, no Australian leader has received quite this treatment from an American president\u2014not even Whitlam during his infamous feud with Nixon.<\/p>\n<p>This episode is a reminder that Trump\u2019s personal diplomacy\u2014if it can be called \u201cdiplomacy\u201d\u2014is of a different ilk. In his Wednesday address to the National Press Club Turnbull attempted to present himself to the electorate as an outsider by claiming that he\u2019s \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/mail.aspistrategist.ru\/owa\/redir.aspx?C=uP1C2ZNwHyHwqfwoMyz9iEMIib3ULRE5rCruwtciJaMv3u1SXEvUCA..&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.pm.gov.au%2fmedia%2f2017-02-01%2faddress-national-press-club\" target=\"_blank\">no political animal<\/a>.\u2019 It now appears that Trump gave him an example of how a real outsider does business. Turnbull, like Trump, is a businessman and it may be that as a businessman he discovers the key to managing his relationship with Trump. And manage it he must. For better or worse, the leader-to-leader relationship is seen as a gauge of the health of the broader alliance. Over 70 years we have seen the relationship prosper under the mutual affection of Holt and Johnston, Howard and Bush and falter under the animosity of Whitlam and Nixon.<\/p>\n<p>Much of this can be superficial\u2014the photo above of Gillard and Obama handpassing a Sherrin footy in the Oval Office comes to mind. The alliance is, in theory at least, bigger than any two leaders. It\u2019s buttressed by agreements and protocols that will last far longer than any political tenure. However, ANZUS has always been dominated by the interaction between the leaders. They set the tone that flows downwards to their respective governments and the interaction between them influences the public\u2019s perception of the alliance, especially here in Australia.<\/p>\n<p>Trump appears to be a president who places more importance on personal relationships than most. He\u2019s as susceptible to charm as he is sensitive to criticism. As many commentators have noted, he has little time for abstract concepts, perhaps not even for the international order under which Australia has done so well. Trump\u2019s concerns are immediate and blatantly self-interested. It\u2019s to that self-interest that Turnbull should appeal, rather than to the more abstract concept of shared values and history.<\/p>\n<p>The weekend\u2019s exchange should be a warning for Canberra that the days of the cheap and easy alliance are over. The future that we&#8217;ve been warned about is here. While an alliance in which the US demands more is challenging to Canberra, it\u2019s also an opportunity for us to reassess exactly what we seek from ANZUS and what we\u2019re prepared to invest to secure that.<\/p>\n<p>Early in his legal career, Turnbull represented Kerry Packer, another billionaire businessman noted for his abrasive style. By his own account, the young Turnbull dealt with an often fiery Packer firmly but with a cool head. An older Prime Minister Turnbull well may need to draw on that coolness now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Prime Minister\u2019s Office will be keen to downplay the significance of last weekend\u2019s phone call between Malcolm Turnbull and US President Donald Trump, but both the call and the fact that it leaked in &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":30423,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[40,131,1428,1464],"class_list":["post-30422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-alliance-2","tag-anzus","tag-donald-trump","tag-malcolm-turnbull"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>That phone call: Trump and Turnbull\u2019s 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