{"id":30611,"date":"2017-02-21T11:00:37","date_gmt":"2017-02-21T00:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30611"},"modified":"2017-02-21T10:48:49","modified_gmt":"2017-02-20T23:48:49","slug":"trumps-china-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/trumps-china-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s China challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n
Over the last eight years, as China\u2019s posturing in Asia became increasingly aggressive, many criticized US President Barack Obama for failing to stand up to the Asian giant. It was on Obama\u2019s watch, after all, that China captured the disputed Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines and built seven artificial islands in the South China Sea, on which it then deployed heavy weapons\u2014all without incurring any international costs.<\/p>\n
Many expect Obama\u2019s tough-talking successor, Donald Trump, to change all of this. He is not off to a good start.<\/p>\n
During the campaign, Trump threatened to retaliate against China for \u2018raping\u2019 America on trade, to impose massive tariffs on Chinese imports, and to label China a currency manipulator on \u2018day one.\u2019 Soon after his victory, Trump took a congratulatory phone call from the president of Taiwan, thereby breaking with nearly 40 years of diplomatic orthodoxy. Trump then took the matter a step further, publicly suggesting<\/a> that he would use the \u2018One China\u2019 policy as a bargaining chip in bilateral negotiations over contentious economic and security issues\u2014from import taxes to North Korea.<\/p>\n But Trump backed down. Chinese President Xi Jinping made it clear that he would not so much as talk to Trump on the phone without assurance that the US president would pledge fidelity to the One China policy. The call happened, and Trump did exactly what Xi wanted, ostensibly without extracting anything in return. If China now perceives Trump to be all bark and no bite, he will undoubtedly find it harder to secure concessions from China on trade and security issues.<\/p>\n Trump is not the only figure in his administration to stake out a bold position on China, and then retreat meekly. During his Senate confirmation process, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared<\/a> that the US should \u2018send China a clear signal\u2019 by denying it access to its artificial islands in the South China Sea. China\u2019s expansionism in the region, Tillerson asserted, was \u2018akin to Russia\u2019s taking Crimea\u2019 from Ukraine\u2014an implicit criticism of Obama for allowing the two developments.<\/p>\n But Tillerson, like his new boss, soon backed down. The US, he now claims<\/a>, merely needs to be \u2018capable\u2019 of restricting China\u2019s access to the South China Sea islands, in the event of a contingency.<\/p>\n And yet China\u2019s behavior merits stronger US action now. The country is attempting to upend the status quo<\/em> not only in the South China Sea, but also in the East China Sea and the Himalayas. It is working to create a large sphere of influence through its \u2018one belt, one road\u2019 initiative. And it is reengineering transboundary river flows. All of this is intended to achieve Chinese leaders\u2019 goal of re-establishing the country\u2019s mythical \u2018Middle Kingdom\u2019 status.<\/p>\n Flawed US policy has opened the way for these efforts, in part by helping<\/a> to turn China into an export juggernaut. The problem isn\u2019t that China has a strong economy, but rather that it abuses free-trade rules to subsidize its exports and impede imports, in order to shield domestic jobs and industry. Today, China sells $4 worth of goods to the US for every $1 in imports.<\/p>\n Just as the US inadvertently saddled the world with the jihadist scourge by training Afghan mujahideen<\/em>\u2014the anti-Soviet fighting force out of which al-Qaeda evolved\u2014it unintentionally created a rules-violating monster by aiding China\u2019s economic rise. And it sustained its China-friendly trade policy even as China\u2019s abuses became bolder and more obvious.<\/p>\n It is ironic that China, which has quietly waged a trade war for years, has responded to Trump\u2019s threats to impose punitive tariffs by warning\u2014notably, at this year\u2019s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos<\/a>\u2014of the risks of protectionism and trade wars. But not everyone is falling for China\u2019s story. A growing number of countries are recognizing that reciprocity should guide their relations with China.<\/p>\n