{"id":30663,"date":"2017-02-23T14:30:57","date_gmt":"2017-02-23T03:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30663"},"modified":"2017-03-14T15:57:08","modified_gmt":"2017-03-14T04:57:08","slug":"alliance-management-trump-administration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/alliance-management-trump-administration\/","title":{"rendered":"Alliance management and the Trump administration"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

If the Trump\u2013Turnbull call illustrated the operatic nature of the early Trump administration, then the Trump\u2013Abe long weekend presented an alternative picture of US alliance management under the new President.<\/p>\n

Both episodes demonstrate how leader-to-leader relations play a role in maintaining forward momentum of an alliance and shaping how it is viewed. Any leaders-level changing of goal posts\u2014on not tweeting opinions about preexisting deals, say\u2014undermines public, as well as official, trust and risks amplifying divergent interests. Conversely, a rapport based on extended interaction and a focus on the overall relationship can consolidate a relationship and help smooth over past problems and divergent interests.<\/p>\n

Regarding the Trump\u2013Turnbull call: disagreements are far from unheard of in the US\u2013Australia relationship. But the leaking of the truncated call and President Trump\u2019s \u2018dumb deal\u2019 focus and tweet helped transform it into a metaphor for the broader dysfunction in the early days of this White House: the disruption and volatility, significant leaking and limited agency involvement.<\/p>\n

It certainly blindsided both Canberra and Washington (beyond the Oval Office), because if any ally had been well positioned with the alliance-sceptical President Trump, it was Australia. Australia pulls its weight more than many other US allies: it\u2019s helping to combat ISIS in the Middle East and increasing defence spending to 2% of GDP\u2014in addition to Australia\u2019s valuable intelligence partnership with the US, high-capability military and key role in US force dispersal strategy.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Abe\u2019s visit built on his initial meeting with then President-elect Trump as the first foreign leader to visit after the election. President Trump emphasised the \u2018very, very good bond<\/a>\u2019 between himself and Abe, and the opening hug, discussion and long handshake at the White House were followed by a Mar-a-Lago weekend of business, golf, and dinner. Both Trump and Abe appeared eager to build good will and make the visit a success. Abe announced Japan\u2019s increased investment in the US<\/a>, and Trump reaffirmed America\u2019s security commitment to Japan\u2014including the disputed islands\u2014and thanked Japan for hosting American troops.<\/p>\n

President Trump clearly values face-to-face meetings, and this visit focused more on the overall US\u2013Japan relationship rather than a purely transactional, individual-deal-based approach. Both sides sought to subsume problems\u2014not least Trump\u2019s previous provocative comments about Japan\u2019s value as an ally\u2014within the broader context of a robust alliance.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s still too early to view the Abe visit as the start of a new trajectory for Trump\u2019s alliance management. Athough the Trump\u2013Trudeau meeting<\/a> seemed positive, Secretary of State Tillerson, Defence Secretary Mattis, and Vice President Pence\u2019s European trips indicate how messages of reassurance to allies can be undercut by confusing signals from the President himself.<\/p>\n

As with all things in the Trump administration, it\u2019s unlikely alliance management will be linear, and there are some concerning open questions. Most pressing: is the chaos emanating from the White House the teething pains of a new administration\u2014though unlike any we have seen\u2014or is this an administration in crisis?\u00a0 Will the new national security adviser, H.R. McMaster<\/a>, manage to calm a National Security Council in disarray and institute an orderly policy process? \u00a0How will McMaster affect the competing centres of power within the White House and the access secretaries Tillerson and Mattis have to the President, and can key positions in the NSC, State and Defence be filled quickly?<\/p>\n

As for Australia, these initial indications of the Trump administration\u2019s alliance management have been instructive.\u00a0 The fundamentals of ANZUS are robust enough to withstand the phone call\u2014which is good, because ANZUS remains critically important to Australia\u2019s defence, at a time of regional military modernisation and soaring defence technology costs.\u00a0 The White House would also have seen the extraordinary groundswell of American popular and Congressional support for Australia and ANZUS after the call: a timely reminder not just of ANZUS\u2019s history but its contemporary strategic importance.<\/p>\n

Canberra is now adapting to the profoundly changed circumstances by working the multiple tracks of the bilateral relationship, including traditional channels with the State Department, the Department of Defense, Vice-President Pence\u2019s office and Congress. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop\u2019s meetings with the Vice President and Secretary Tillerson were important opportunities to fortify the relationship, get more insight into US policy and provide Australia\u2019s views on critical issues. These below-leaders\u2019 level channels will likely continue to be a focus for Canberra; leaders\u2019 level relations can be built when Prime Minister Turnbull visits the US. It\u2019s also a good time to utilise other channels of communication, including business, technology, and cultural\/entertainment contacts.<\/p>\n

The early, frenzied weeks of the Trump administration will surely give added impetus to Canberra\u2019s push to shore up other security partnerships, including with Japan, Singapore, India and South Korea, as part of the broader regional web of bilateral, trilateral and multilateral security linkages in the face of questions about America\u2019s ongoing regional role.<\/p>\n

Adapting to the Trump administration and its alliance management will require adroit navigation and a strong sense of Australia\u2019s national interests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If the Trump\u2013Turnbull call illustrated the operatic nature of the early Trump administration, then the Trump\u2013Abe long weekend presented an alternative picture of US alliance management under the new President. 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