{"id":30854,"date":"2017-03-13T06:00:43","date_gmt":"2017-03-12T19:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30854"},"modified":"2017-03-14T15:50:02","modified_gmt":"2017-03-14T04:50:02","slug":"australian-strategy-hold-us-bet-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australian-strategy-hold-us-bet-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian strategy: hold US, bet Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n
Australia\u2019s strategic hope is to hold tight to what it has with the US while seeking new chances in Asia.<\/p>\n
To use the language of poker: hold, not fold on America, bet big Asia. At the multi-dimension poker table, Australia is playing two hands simultaneously, with diverging strategies for the alliance and Asia, all for a single jackpot.<\/p>\n
The hold-America, bet-Asia formula has lots of moving parts. The beauty is that it hews to the key themes Australia has been using for decades: alliance, Asian engagement and global rules. Unfortunately the new US leader dislikes these great themes. And the Narcissist-in-Chief\u2019s hand might be more busted flush than full house.<\/p>\n
Australia confronts an America First President who rejects alliances and renders economics in primary colours of protectionist, mercantilist hue. Enter \u2018the most unpopular and least prepared\u2019<\/a> US president of modern history. And Canberra thought the going was tough when Oz merely faced a new world where its top trading partner wasn\u2019t also an ally. Oh, for simpler times.<\/p>\n The Foreign Policy White Paper<\/a> Australia will produce this year will be the institutional expression of the hold-America, bet-Asia strategy.<\/p>\n On the hold\u2019em side, Australia will seek to Trump-proof the alliance with multiple layers of history and commitment. After the Trump-Turnbull telephone turmoil<\/a>, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop zoomed to Washington for talks with Vice President Mike Pence. The White House readout<\/a> on that February 21 meeting gives the proper hold\u2019em flavour:<\/p>\n \u2018The two reaffirmed the strong alliance between the United States and Australia and committed to maintaining the close ties of friendship between our two countries. The Vice President thanked the Foreign Minister for Australia’s multifaceted partnership with the United States around the globe.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Expect lots more of that hold-hard and hope language in the White Paper. What will drive the bet-big Asia side of the Paper will be the need for insurance against Donald Trump\u2019s core belief that America gets a lousy return from the international order it created. A succinct summary of Trump\u2019s mindmap is offered by Thomas Wright<\/a>, arguing that over three decades Trump has displayed \u2018a remarkably coherent and consistent world view\u2019, embracing antiquated, 19th century American notions of power:<\/p>\n Using the Wright analysis, <\/span>Jessica Mathews<\/span><\/a> comes from the other direction to argue that the new President rejects the few fundamentals American neocons, realists and liberal internationalists agree on:<\/span><\/p>\n What Trump believes and what he wants to discard will be a significant, unstated subtext for Australia\u2019s White Paper. Without naming Trump, Australia will be arguing against him by emphasising the arrival of Asia\u2019s new order, the deep foundations of the alliance, the central US role in Asia and the vital interests in a rules-based international order.<\/p>\n\n
\n