{"id":30959,"date":"2017-03-20T06:00:39","date_gmt":"2017-03-19T19:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30959"},"modified":"2017-03-18T17:07:13","modified_gmt":"2017-03-18T06:07:13","slug":"big-oz-bets-asia-part-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/big-oz-bets-asia-part-one\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Oz bets on Asia (part one)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Foreign Policy White Paper<\/a>\u00a0to be produced this year must place big bets in Asia. The multi-purpose bets must imagine expanded interests and seek insurance against a protectionist US president who\u2019s sceptical of alliances.<\/p>\n

In our dark, private imaginings, the new Asia wagers will be insurance with both trade and strategic dimensions. In our public presentations, however, the Asia policy gush is just another stage in Australia\u2019s decades-long journey into Asia. As ever, \u2018the odd man in\u2019 (Dick Woolcott\u2019s \u00a0wonderful phrase) wants to keep digging in. Going big in Asia will strengthen, not weaken, Australia\u2019s ability to speak in Washington.<\/p>\n

Australia needs to think new thoughts in Asia while trying to Trump-proof the US alliance. Our policy on Trump\u2019s America will be hold on hard and hope<\/a>. The Trump uncertainties, in turn, compel Canberra to do what it should be doing anyway in Asia. It\u2019s time for a fresh burst of policy; Oz \u00a0push, persuasion and even a bit of passion in pursuit of renewed regional purposes.<\/p>\n

Looking well beyond Donald Trump, though, the Foreign Policy White Paper will gamble on the shape of Asia\u2019s order in the 21st century. Australia\u2019s bets should:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. See Japan as an independent strategic leader in Asia<\/li>\n
  2. Support ASEAN by seeking membership of the Association for Australia and New Zealand<\/li>\n
  3. Align Australia\u2019s Asia policy interests with Indonesia<\/li>\n
  4. Seek strategic convergence with India, building shared interests in the Indo-Pacific<\/li>\n
  5. Seal a grand Oz bargain with China based on economic, social and legal agreements<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Let\u2019s tackle the first two bets\u2026<\/p>\n

    The close partnership Australia has built with Japan since the 1960s must reach a new strategic level<\/a>. The long economic partnership is the natural platform for broader cooperation in Asia; Tokyo and Canberra can be the core of a coalition for openness<\/a> in the global economy. Australia created its formal alliance with the US to prevent Japan ever taking independent strategic action again. Now Australia desperately wants Japan to step up to regional leadership.<\/p>\n

    The US\u2013Oz\u2013Japan trilateral was designed to help Japan reemerge; suddenly it\u2019s a tool to stop the US from reneging. The crucial allies<\/a> come together to try to manage the great ally. Australia is betting that Shinzo Abe isn\u2019t a leadership outlier but that he can deliver a permanent change in Japan\u2019s strategic outlook<\/a>: a Japan that remakes its Asian identity and claims an expanded leadership role. \u00a0\u00a0A big bet.<\/p>\n

    The Oz\u2013Japan bet is also one ASEAN will have to embrace if Trump bilateralism diminishes America\u2019s role<\/a> in the East Asia Summit and other ASEAN-centred regional security efforts. Already, ASEAN thinkers are suggesting that the \u2018clear alternative for ASEAN is for Japan and Australia to fill the gap<\/a> where the US falls short\u2019.<\/p>\n

    If ASEAN wins, Australia wins. If ASEAN fails, Australia is imperilled. To that end, Australia needs to start the slow process of becoming an ASEAN member. If Australia seeks ASEAN membership<\/a>, New Zealand would come along, and a joint Oz\u2013Kiwi effort would be mutually reinforcing. Convincing the Kiwis would be the easiest part.<\/p>\n

    Two huge arguments need to be confronted. One, obviously, is with ASEAN. The ten-member Association will take a mountain of convincing. The other is that Australia will have to convince itself of the importance of the change; only then can Canberra convince ASEAN. The ultimate argument won\u2019t be about the geography of Southeast Asia; it\u2019ll be about attitudes, understandings and beliefs. Australia would become part of ASEAN\u2019s political, economic and strategic Community. A great leap of imagination can drive a journey that will take decades.<\/p>\n

    My original argument was that Australia should reach to be half-in, with formal Observer status by 2024, the 50th anniversary of Australia becoming ASEAN\u2019s first dialogue partner. That\u2019s the approach favoured by former foreign minister, Stephen Smith<\/a>, who argued that:<\/p>\n

    \u2018We should start a conversation with Indonesia and with ASEAN about Australia becoming an Observer to ASEAN… you go to a halfway house, to Observer status that says to ASEAN and Indonesia, we\u2019re serious about this and puts you on a potential pathway to ASEAN membership but not a pathway you necessarily have to adopt.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    A more direct approach to negating the geographic veto (they\u2019re not in Southeast Asia, they don\u2019t belong) is offered by a previous Secretary-General of ASEAN, Ong Keng Yong. He suggests a fresh form, a new category of membership<\/a>. Perhaps Australia and New Zealand could become ASEAN Community Partners.<\/p>\n

    We\u2019ll take up the remaining three bets next week\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The\u00a0Foreign Policy White Paper\u00a0to be produced this year must place big bets in Asia. The multi-purpose bets must imagine expanded interests and seek insurance against a protectionist US president who\u2019s sceptical of alliances. In our …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":30960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[189,89,285,135,523],"class_list":["post-30959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asean","tag-dfat","tag-foreign-policy","tag-japan","tag-white-paper"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBig Oz bets on Asia (part one) | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/big-oz-bets-asia-part-one\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Big Oz bets on Asia (part one) | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The\u00a0Foreign Policy White Paper\u00a0to be produced this year must place big bets in Asia. 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