{"id":30974,"date":"2017-03-21T06:00:51","date_gmt":"2017-03-20T19:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=30974"},"modified":"2017-03-20T12:59:42","modified_gmt":"2017-03-20T01:59:42","slug":"post-west-world-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/post-west-world-order\/","title":{"rendered":"A post-West world order?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said something startling last month at the Munich Security Conference.\u00a0 He rejected, explicitly, the so-called \u2018liberal world order<\/a>\u2019, asserted that \u2018the post-Cold War order\u2019 had come to an end and called, instead, on \u2018leaders with a sense of responsibility\u2019 to support, in its place, what he called a \u2018post-West world order\u2019.<\/p>\n

Lavrov\u2019s remarks were reported, of course, but were swamped in the issue of the day in Munich.\u00a0 European leaders in Munich wanted reassurances from the new US Vice President, Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense that President Trump\u2019s deeply unsettling comments about the security relationship with Europe\u2014particularly about NATO\u2019s continued relevance\u2014didn\u2019t foreshadow a major shift in US policy.<\/p>\n

Such reassurances were given and cautiously welcomed. But, in doing so, Secretary Mattis observed<\/a> that, should other NATO members not increase their defence expenditure significantly, the United States might need to \u2018moderate its commitments to the alliance\u2019. So the US threat remains.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a fair cop though: in 2016 only 5 members, led by the US, met or exceeded NATO\u2019s defence expenditure target<\/a> of 2 per cent of GDP; the US already spends almost double the NATO target, even before the huge increase President Trump is seeking. Some Europeans, including the Germans (only 1.2 percent of GDP on defence), have accepted that they have to bear more of the burden but they\u2019re highly unlikely to increase defence expenditure in the sort of timeframe that Trump is expecting.<\/p>\n

Of course, Lavrov\u2019s comments reflect a blatantly Putin\/Russian agenda that\u2019s very alarming by itself.\u00a0 But, faced with disarray, things are changing in the West, especially in Europe. Many Western governments are also redefining\u2014or rather being forced by international uncertainty and strong popular opinion to redefine\u2014how they view the post-Cold War global order.<\/p>\n

In particular, we\u2019re seeing a reassertion of national sovereignty\u2014and the absolute primacy of the pursuit of each country\u2019s national interests\u2014at the expense of accepted institutions.<\/p>\n

Brexit is an obvious example of this. President Trump\u2019s strong \u2018America first\u2019-based approach\u2014driven by the wave of popular fear, frustration and xenophobia that resulted in his election\u2014is another. His announcement of a significant boost in defence expenditure is a reassertion of US muscle but overwhelmingly only in the service of direct US\u2014not necessarily Western\u2014interests.\u00a0 As the New York Times described it recently<\/a>, it is \u2018raw power as a means and an end\u2019 that is \u2018synonymous with America\u2019s standing in the world\u2019.<\/p>\n

Support for the European project, at the very heart of the post-World War 2 security framework, is under great strain; there\u2019s little appetite for more integration. On the contrary, the chaotic response by EU members to Brexit and the many other serious problems Europe is facing has revealed major differences of view about the way ahead and eroded confidence among Europeans in the EU and its institutions.<\/p>\n

This had swept a series of Trumpian governments into power in Europe long before Trump. Listen carefully to what the Polish and Hungarian governments, both conservative nationalists, are saying and you will get a flavour of this disillusionment. Poland would like a complete overhaul of the EU; Hungary wants integration reversed.<\/p>\n

None is suggesting the demise of the EU. But there\u2019s a broad sense that power must be returned more to member governments, with the EU becoming a group of individual countries pursuing their own national interests together but much more loosely.\u00a0 And some are saying that they do not want an EU dominated\u2014after Brexit and because of its size and strength\u2014by Germany.<\/p>\n

Although there\u2019s been, post-Trump, a rare debate in Germany about whether it should take a much more substantial leading role in the West, Chancellor Merkel believes that what is needed is more Europe<\/a>, not less. Integration, the Germans would say, has been half-hearted and slow and needs turbocharging.<\/p>\n

It is a measure of the dissent within the EU that the \u2018big four\u2019 leaders (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) have just had to concede a \u2018multi-speed\u2019 European Union, something unthinkable a few years ago.<\/p>\n

The Chancellor and her Social Democrat opponent\u2014the former President of the European Parliament, Martin Schultz\u2014also must deal with a populist party of Germany\u2019s own, in the form of the Alternative for Germany<\/a>. So, with bells on, do France and the Netherlands.\u00a0 It\u2019s worth noting that, at the time of writing, although still to everyone\u2019s relief the largest party in the Netherlands Parliament, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte lost about 10 seats in the 15 March elections, while Geert Wilders\u2019 party gained seats.<\/p>\n

So, although it would be easy to exaggerate all of this, the fact is that the traditional concept of the West is under severe challenge on a range of fronts. The West has rarely been so divided and there is a strongly populist and nationalist element in play that is causing great readjustment and reflection.\u00a0 But, unless the West gets its act together, all of this sounds a little bit like the chaos that might lead to the kind of \u2018post-West world order\u2019 Lavrov self-servingly describes and Russia is doing its best to achieve.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said something startling last month at the Munich Security Conference.\u00a0 He rejected, explicitly, the so-called \u2018liberal world order\u2019, asserted that \u2018the post-Cold War order\u2019 had come to an end and …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":579,"featured_media":30975,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1631,1428,1025,261],"class_list":["post-30974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-brexit","tag-donald-trump","tag-european-union","tag-nato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA post-West world order? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/post-west-world-order\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A post-West world order? 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