{"id":31079,"date":"2017-03-28T06:00:51","date_gmt":"2017-03-27T19:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=31079"},"modified":"2017-03-28T09:19:06","modified_gmt":"2017-03-27T22:19:06","slug":"australia-now-chinas-strategic-prize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-now-chinas-strategic-prize\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Australia now China\u2019s strategic prize?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

The Australia\u2013China\u2013US triangular relationship is becoming ever more important as Chinese power and influence continue to rise, as America\u2019s Asia policy enters a highly uncertain and even capricious phase under President Donald Trump, and as Australia continues to fine-tune its delicate hedging game between Beijing and Washington.<\/p>\n

At the start of 2017, among the three bilateral relationships\u2014Australia\u2013China, Australia\u2013US, and China\u2013US\u2014it\u2019s the relationship between Canberra and Beijing that\u2019s going most smoothly. That\u2019s something to celebrate because, for some time following Canberra\u2019s immediate support of the South China Sea arbitration ruling released in July last year, China was considering economic punishment against Australia if it was to continue championing the ruling that Beijing had vehemently rejected.<\/p>\n

Not only have memories about the ruling now faded, but Australia has sent clear signals that it\u2019s pursuing an independent policy toward the South China Sea, one that\u2019s distinct from America\u2019s increasingly robust military posture. Thus, in response to repeated requests from American admirals that Canberra should conduct its own Freedom of Navigations Operations, both current and retired officials came out opposing<\/a> the idea.<\/p>\n

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, whose declaratory support of the arbitral ruling last year irked the Chinese, has now told<\/a> the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that \u2018Australia will not change its past behavior in the South China Sea and not escalate tensions with Beijing.\u2019 Equally important, during her press conference with the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on 7 February, Bishop endorsed<\/a> diplomatic dialogue between China and other South China Sea claimant states. It\u2019s a position China has long promoted, particularly since the second half of last year as it sought to delegitimise the arbitration ruling.<\/p>\n

Separately, Beijing is satisfied that the idea of an Australia\u2013Indonesia joint patrol of the South China Sea has so far come to nothing. The idea doesn\u2019t hold water<\/a>, and given Indonesian President Joko Widodo\u2019s friendly attitude toward China, Beijing was sceptical of its substance. Nevertheless, Bishop\u2019s explicit rejection<\/a> of the idea earlier this month was a delight to Beijing.<\/p>\n

Thus, from China\u2019s standpoint, Australia\u2019s doing everything correctly regarding the South China Sea. Although Beijing still complains about the strengthening of the US\u2013Australia military alliance, especially US deployments<\/a> in Australia for China contingencies, it appears that the South China Sea is no longer an obstacle to deepening bilateral ties.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also been plenty of good news on the economic front. Economic ties, buttressed by a comprehensive free trade agreement signed in 2015, are the central pillar of Sino-Australian relations.<\/p>\n

As the Trump administration embraces \u2018America First\u2019 nationalism and protectionism, China seeks to fill the breach. Since the administration withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which Beijing believed itself to be the target of, China has moved quickly to morph into a champion of globalisation and free trade. The main vehicle through which it has sought to do so has been through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which involves ten ASEAN countries and six others, including Australia.<\/p>\n

During Wang\u2019s meeting with Bishop at the 4th round of Sino-Australian diplomatic and strategic dialogue on 7 February, he urged<\/a> all parties in the RCEP talks, including Australia, to expedite the negotiating process. He also emphasised<\/a> the importance of protecting the multilateral trading system and opposed all manner of protectionism.<\/p>\n

In contrast, Australia\u2019s political relationship with the US has withstood a major disruption following a telephone call incident<\/a> on 28 February.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Chinese elites haven\u2019t failed to notice the domestic debate inside Australia about the need for a new, independent foreign policy that would be less subordinate to the US and more focused on China. From Hugh White\u2019s prediction<\/a> that Australia \u2018will move closer to China and further from America\u2019 to Stephen Fitzgerald\u2019s admission<\/a> that \u2018we are living in a Chinese world,\u2019 Chinese elites can\u2019t help but wonder whether Australia is now a strategic prize up for grabs in the age of Trump.<\/p>\n

The reality, however, is more complex. Many differences remain in the bilateral relationship, even on the economic front. Although both countries support RCEP, they have different visions<\/a> of what\u2019s appropriate\u2014China seeks a quick, \u201clowest-common-denominator\u201d kind of deal, while Australia prefers a \u201chigh-quality\u2019\u201d one.<\/p>\n

And despite progress made since late last year, Premier Li Keqiang\u2019s visit last week for the fifth round of Sino-Australian prime ministers\u2019 annual meeting fell short<\/a> in advancing a core objective of China\u2019s grand strategy: persuading Canberra to formally support the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by signing an agreement over the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility.<\/p>\n

There are still inherent limits to deepening the relationship. The pro-US wing still dominates policymaking when it comes to the Australia-US-China trilateral relationship. Tactically, Bishop supports Chinese diplomacy over the South China Sea; on a strategic level, however, she calls on<\/a> the Trump administration to expand the US role in Asia. Although tension in the South China Sea has recently abated, its lingering toll can be seen in Australian suspicions of Chinese strategic ambitions, with spill-over effects on attitudes toward BRI and Chinese investments in Australia.<\/p>\n

If Beijing is smart, it shouldn\u2019t entertain the fantasy of wooing Australia by trying to drive a wedge between Canberra and Washington. That would be publicly offensive and strategically counterproductive. Rather, it should try by skilful diplomacy to address Australia\u2019s major concern about the stability of a rules-based order, by proving that a powerful China will be a strong supporter of such an order. Meanwhile, it should demonstrate to Australia that China is a reliable economic and security partner whose cooperation will be in the long-term interest of Australian prosperity and security.<\/p>\n

Once those aims are achieved, Australia\u2019s alliance with the US should be less of a concern, simply because the Australia\u2013China relationship will be so much stronger.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Australia\u2013China\u2013US triangular relationship is becoming ever more important as Chinese power and influence continue to rise, as America\u2019s Asia policy enters a highly uncertain and even capricious phase under President Donald Trump, and as …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":417,"featured_media":31080,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1056,52,471,365],"class_list":["post-31079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-bilateral-relations","tag-china","tag-south-china-sea","tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Australia now China\u2019s strategic prize? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-now-chinas-strategic-prize\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Australia now China\u2019s strategic prize? 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