{"id":31234,"date":"2017-04-06T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2017-04-06T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=31234"},"modified":"2017-04-06T15:30:48","modified_gmt":"2017-04-06T05:30:48","slug":"strategist-six-yoichi-funabashi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/strategist-six-yoichi-funabashi\/","title":{"rendered":"The Strategist Six: Yoichi Funabashi"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/em><\/p>\n

Welcome to <\/em>The Strategist Six, a feature that provides a glimpse into the thinking of prominent academics, analysts, government officials, military officers, reporters and interesting individuals from around the world. <\/em>The following interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.<\/em><\/p>\n

1. You\u2019ve watched the Japan\u2013US relationship evolve for more than four decades. What\u2019s your assessment of bilateral ties today, and how do you evaluate Prime Minister Abe\u2019s management of relations with the Trump administration?<\/strong><\/p>\n

It was positive that Prime Minister Abe has twice been able to meet with Donald Trump, both as president-elect and after the inauguration, because the new administration is both unpredictable and appears set to challenge America\u2019s role in the liberal international order. Japan has significant interests in maintaining that order, so I think it was imperative that Prime Minister Abe was able to share his strategic views with the new president, as well as seek certain reassurances on issues like Article 5 and the provision of extended deterrence. So on the strategic front, the Abe\u2013Trump meetings have been quite helpful and productive, but on the economic and trade policy front, the US and Japan appear to have divergent views on how to tackle the trade imbalance and answer other economic questions. To that end, it remains to be seen how well the Aso\u00ad\u00ad\u2013Pence economic dialogue can tackle these challenges.<\/p>\n

2. With the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the scrapheap, what can countries like Japan and Australia do to ensure high-quality trade liberalisation and economic integration continues in the Asia\u2013Pacific?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes, the TPP is politically dead, but I think it\u2019ll remain a useful concept, even if it needs a different name. Japan and Australia should continue with the TPP without the US\u2014the TPP-11\u2014which should be used to push for higher standards of rules and norms to support regional trade liberalisation. The question is really about the role that China plays in the region\u2019s trade affairs. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is now the \u201clowest common denominator\u201d trade deal, so I think it\u2019s reasonable for Australia and Japan to work with other like-minded TPP signatories to have some of the TPP standards incorporated into RCEP. It could also be conducive and productive for China if it were to take advantage of the opportunity to push for structural reform in their domestic economy.<\/p>\n

3. It\u2019s been one year since Australia\u2019s competitive evaluation process rejected Japan\u2019s bid to build our future submarine fleet. As a strategic partner, how important is Australia to Japan?<\/strong><\/p>\n

To be honest, I was a bit disappointed with Australia\u2019s decision to favor French over Japanese submarine technology, but I also think Japan was unprepared and became a competitive player too late. I don\u2019t think it changed the fundamental strategic value Tokyo sees in Canberra. Cooperation between Japan and Australia has always been crucial to maintaining peace and security in the Asia\u2013Pacific. Indeed, strong cooperation between the two countries is even more necessary today given the uncertainty around America\u2019s commitment to region, our desire for stability in the South China Sea, and as we face the contingency phase of managing North Korea. In those areas, Japan and Australia are natural allies and must deepen cooperation.<\/p>\n

Japan has been a bit uneasy with what it sees as Australia\u2019s somewhat schizophrenic views on China, as it\u2019s still yet to reconcile the two strands of its economic cooperation with China and strategic cooperation with the US. Of course, Australia isn\u2019t alone in this situation. But it means it\u2019s particularly important for Canberra and Tokyo to continue to share strategic assessments of regional developments, particularly around China\u2019s risks and opportunities.<\/p>\n

4. What does Japan see when it looks at Xi Jinping\u2019s China?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Xi Jinping has completely ended China\u2019s \u2018peaceful rise\u2019 strategy, and now poses serious threat to peace and stability in the Asia\u00ad\u00ad\u2013Pacific. It has been a rude awakening for Japan to appreciate that China had ended that phase, and we aren\u2019t so sure where China\u2019s now headed. On the regional stage, China has emerged as a revisionist power and Japan is most nakedly exposed to its aggressiveness. On the global stage, China is still basically a free-rider that hasn\u2019t decided yet to be a responsible stakeholder and rule-maker. It\u2019s not sustainable, and I think that the moment of truth will come when China defines its role on the Korean Peninsula. This is the third crisis on the Peninsula since the 1990s, and so \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d simply won\u2019t work. I think we have to admit that strategic patience has failed completely, and I think China should be blamed for that failure. So how China will respond to this situation and how we can coordinate a policy to work with China on the DPRK will be the biggest test in my view.<\/p>\n

5. Can Prime Minister Abe\u2019s international agenda survive his prime ministership?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The stability of Japan\u2019s domestic politics has allowed it to play a more meaningful role in supporting regional stability. It\u2019s most likely that this domestic political stability will continue until 2021, when Abe will be forced to step down\u2014despite the current scandal he faces, I think it\u2019ll be a fleeting moment. I\u2019m more worried about the political dynamics after Abe leaves. Traditionally whenever Japan has had a long-tenured government we\u2019ve seen political turmoil follow. That might be the case again.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m particularly concerned about the possibility of right-wing populist sentiments being unleashed more visibly after Abe retires. Abe, as possibly the most conservative leader Japan\u2019s had in the past 70 years, has been in a strong position to stave off pressure from right wingers. He\u2019s certainly incorporated some of their political dynamics and aspirations into his politics, but policy-wise he\u2019s proven to be much more centrist. That\u2019s helped to stablise our domestic politics, as well as Japan\u2019s relations with its neighbours, particularly China and South Korea, although those relations have continued to be strained. Actually, how well Japan manages its relationships with Beijing and Seoul is central. If those relationships become further strained it may cause a backlash from conservatives. Similarly, if Trump and Abe can\u2019t manage their relationship, or if Trump turns out to be hopelessly unhelpful for Japan and the US\u2013Japan relationship, then that could stimulate anti-US sentiment that radically changes Japan\u2019s domestic politics.<\/p>\n

6. Japan’s aging and shrinking population represents a significant challenge for the country. Does Japan need to seriously review its immigration policies in order spur economic growth and underwrite stability?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation has argued that Japan should relax its immigration policies and welcome a very modest number of around 150,000 per annum for the next 30 years, or something similar. At this point however, the Abe government simply isn\u2019t interested in introducing changes to the country\u2019s immigration policies. While they have pursued a back-door policy to allow foreigners to come to Japan for 3\u20135 years, it sort of acts like a rotation system. That\u2019s perhaps better than nothing, but they should be treated as more than laborers. And once we open that door to foreigners, they should be welcomed as fellow citizens. We need a plan to get there, because the Japanese economy simply won\u2019t revitalise if we don\u2019t adjust our immigration policies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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The following interview has been …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":128,"featured_media":31235,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1428,135,507,1629,365],"class_list":["post-31234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-donald-trump","tag-japan","tag-shinzo-abe","tag-the-strategist-six","tag-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Strategist Six: Yoichi Funabashi | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/strategist-six-yoichi-funabashi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Strategist Six: Yoichi Funabashi | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Welcome to The Strategist Six, a feature that provides a glimpse into the thinking of prominent academics, analysts, government officials, military officers, reporters and interesting individuals from around the world. 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