{"id":31413,"date":"2017-04-21T06:00:18","date_gmt":"2017-04-20T20:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=31413"},"modified":"2017-04-20T15:42:09","modified_gmt":"2017-04-20T05:42:09","slug":"north-korea-war-near","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-war-near\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korea: is war near?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

Imagine that you\u2019re on a quest. You\u2019ve journeyed, wearily, for decades. The bones of your dead horses describe a winding trail in the wilderness behind you. You come at last to a cross-roads, from which several paths lead forward. The sole source of navigational guidance is a wizened, monosyllabic stranger. After a series of oblique exchanges, you conclude that along some paths lies the risk of quick death, along others the risk of slow death. None leads to Nirvana.<\/p>\n

Okay, that\u2019s about where we are in relation to North Korea. We have in power in Pyongyang a young, ambitious, but insecure leader who has invested a lot of political capital in an accelerating nuclear and missile program. Meanwhile, we have a new administration in the White House\u2014one keen to distance itself from its predecessor\u2019s policy of denial and delay. Presidential elections are under way in South Korea, with the real possibility<\/a> of a more left-leaning administration coming to power in Seoul after 9 May. There\u2019s a government in power in Japan that\u2019s as strategically forward-leaning as any since WW2, and some Japanese politicians are openly discussing Tokyo\u2019s need for prompt-strike options<\/a> against North Korea. In Beijing, there\u2019s still a residual commitment to dialogue: the Chinese don\u2019t believe the DPRK yet has a reliable, operational nuclear warhead or an intercontinental ballistic missile. But they\u2019re also starting to believe the Trump administration\u2019s statements that if China doesn\u2019t move to solve the problem of North Korea\u2019s exotic weapons bilaterally, the Americans will do it unilaterally.<\/p>\n

Despite all the talk of war, no-one\u2019s in a hurry to fire the first shots. Posturing\u2019s cheap but war\u2019s expensive. Besides, the US believes that posturing\u2019s paying dividends: putting Kim Jong-un on notice, while simultaneously encouraging the Chinese to do more to rein in their erratic neighbour. But Kim believes the same: that his posturing is finally attracting the level of attention befitting North Korea\u2019s needs, and that from this latest swirl of attention he might well emerge with yet another deal that offers both a temporary reprieve for his arsenal and international recognition for his regime.<\/p>\n

So, for the moment at least, posturing rules. Unfortunately, that means only that war\u2019s unlikely, not that it\u2019s impossible. Doubtless many observers are hoping the posturing will harden into a long-term policy of deterrence. To be frank, that\u2019s unlikely too. The US can\u2019t have a deterrence relationship with someone who uses VX to kill his own half-brother and attempts to sell lithium-6<\/a> on global markets. Great powers might well have\u2014between themselves\u2014deterrence relationships that tolerate a degree of leadership eccentricity, but giants don\u2019t have those relationships with midgets<\/a>. A long-term deterrence relationship between the US and North Korea is actually one of the least likely outcomes here. It ranks right up there on the implausibility scale with Kim Jong-un opting for unilateral disarmament. War looks more likely than either of those scenarios.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s the nub of the problem: all conceivable solutions to the North Korean issue are unlikely to get us where we want to go. Think about it. Let\u2019s start with the dialogue option. What\u2019re the odds that a revived dialogue, of however many parties, is going to lead to complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of the North Korean nuclear program? They\u2019re brutally long. The North Korean regime has made clear, citing the cases of Libya and Iraq<\/a>, that WMD dismantlement has previously been an invitation to intervention by external powers. Yes, we can have tomorrow a dialogue that doesn\u2019t lead to dismantlement, but what\u2019s the point of that? As Abe told Pence<\/a>, \u2018dialogue for the sake of dialogue is valueless\u2019.<\/p>\n

The same thing can be said about sanctions. Can we have another, tougher round of sanctions, including secondary sanctions on those Chinese banks and businesses that help keep North Korea afloat? Yes, probably. Beijing wouldn\u2019t like that much, but the latest report<\/a> from the UN\u2019s panel of experts suggests we\u2019re still some distance from a set of sanctions that brings genuine pressure to bear on Kim Jong-un\u2019s decisions. That\u2019s not the question, though, is it? The question is, can we ever make sanctions sufficiently forceful that we can bring about the endpoint of CVID? That seems less likely.<\/p>\n

What about regime change in North Korea? Regime change in South Africa helped put an end to that country\u2019s nuclear-weapons program, and so might offer a way forward in Pyongyang. Such change doesn\u2019t seem very likely, though. Kim Jong-un\u2019s busy eliminating possible challengers from within the family; the North Korean military seems too politically subservient to stage a coup; and the prospect for a revolution from below seems almost laughably small. Yes, we might be able to assassinate Kim Jong-un\u2014but what comes after? And what happens to the nuclear weapons in that scenario?<\/p>\n

Where does all that leave us? Well, there\u2019s good news and bad news. The good news is that the risks of military action make such an option unlikely. The bad news is that our other options are unlikely to succeed. Difficult decisions lie ahead. Complicating those decisions is the element of time. Solving the North Korean problem five years from now is probably going to be harder than solving it now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Imagine that you\u2019re on a quest. You\u2019ve journeyed, wearily, for decades. The bones of your dead horses describe a winding trail in the wilderness behind you. 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