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US President Donald Trump\u2019s approach to foreign policy\u2014based on tactics and transactions, rather than strategic vision\u2014has produced a series of dazzling flip-flops. Lacking any guiding convictions, much less clear priorities, Trump has confounded America\u2019s allies and strategic partners, particularly in Asia\u2014jeopardizing regional security in the process.<\/p>\n
To be sure, some of Trump\u2019s reversals have brought him closer to traditional US positions. In particular, he has declared that NATO is \u2018no longer obsolete,\u2019 as it supposedly was during his campaign. That change has eased some of the strain on the US relationship with Europe.<\/p>\n
But in Asia\u2014which faces serious security, political, and economic challenges\u2014Trump\u2019s reversals have only exacerbated regional volatility. With so many political flashpoints threatening to trigger violent conflict, the last thing Asia\u2019s leaders need is another strategic wild card.<\/p>\n
Yet, in Trump, that is precisely what they have. The US president has shown himself to be more mercurial than the foul-mouthed Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte or the autocratic Chinese President Xi Jinping. Even the famously impulsive North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un seems almost predictable, by comparison.<\/p>\n
Perhaps the most consistent feature of Trump\u2019s foreign policy is his obsession with gaining short-term advantage. In one recent tweet<\/a>, he asked why he should label China a currency manipulator, when the Chinese are working with the US to rein in North Korea. Just days earlier, Trump had called<\/a> the Chinese the \u2018world champions\u2019 of currency manipulation.<\/p>\n That tweet may offer additional insight into Trump\u2019s Asia policy. For starters, it highlights North Korea\u2019s sudden emergence as Trump\u2019s main foreign-policy challenge, suggesting that the strategic patience pursued by former President Barack Obama could well be replaced by a more accident-prone policy of strategic tetchiness.<\/p>\n This reading is reinforced by Vice President Mike Pence\u2019s claims<\/a> that the recent low-risk, low-reward US military strikes in Syria and Afghanistan demonstrate American \u2018strength\u2019 and \u2018resolve\u2019 against North Korea. Such claims reflect a lack of understanding that, when it comes to North Korea, the US has no credible military option, because any US attack would result in the immediate devastation of South Korea\u2019s main population centers.<\/p>\n The Trump administration\u2019s current strategy\u2014counting on China to address the North Korea challenge\u2014won\u2019t work, either. After all, North Korea has lately been seeking to escape China\u2019s clutches and pursue direct engagement with the US.<\/p>\n Given the bad blood between Xi and Kim, it seems that Trump\u2019s best bet might be some version of what he proposed during the campaign: meeting with Kim over a hamburger. With the North Korean nuclear genie already out of the bottle, denuclearization may no longer be a plausible option. But a nuclear freeze could still be negotiated.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s reliance on China to manage North Korea won\u2019t just be ineffective; it could actually prove even more destabilizing for Asia. Trump, who initially seemed eager to challenge China\u2019s hegemonic ambitions, now seems poised to cede more ground to the country, compounding a major foreign-policy mistake on the part of the Obama administration.<\/p>\n Of all of Trump\u2019s reversals, this one has the greatest geostrategic significance, because China will undoubtedly take full advantage of it to advance its own objectives. From its growing repression of political dissidents and ethnic minorities to its efforts to upend the territorial status quo<\/em> in Asia, China constantly tests how far it can go. Under Obama, it got away with a lot. Under Trump, it could get away with even more.<\/p>\n Trump now calls China a friend and partner of his administration\u2014and seems to have developed a fondness for Xi himself. \u2018We have a great chemistry together,\u2019 he says<\/a>. \u2018We like each other. I like him a lot.\u2019<\/p>\n That fondness extends beyond words: Trump\u2019s actions have already strengthened Xi\u2019s position\u2014and undercut his own\u2014though Trump probably didn\u2019t realize it. First, Trump backed down<\/a> from his threat not to honor the \u2018one China\u2019 policy. More recently, Trump hosted Xi at his Florida resort, without requiring that China dismantle any of the unfair trade and investment practices that he railed against during the campaign.<\/p>\n The summit with Trump boosted Xi\u2019s image at home ahead of the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s 19th National Congress later this year, where Xi may manage to break free from institutionalized collective rule to wield power more autocratically than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. It also indicated the Trump administration\u2019s tacit acceptance of China\u2019s territorial grabs in the South China Sea. This will embolden China not just to militarize fully its seven manmade islands there, but also to pursue territorial revisionism in other regions, from the East China Sea to the western Himalayas.<\/p>\n Trump believes<\/a> that \u2018lots of very potentially bad problems will be going away,\u2019 owing to his relationship with the \u2018terrific<\/a>\u2018 Xi. In fact, his promise to \u2018Make America Great Again\u2019 is antithetical to Xi\u2019s \u2018Chinese dream<\/a>\u2018 of \u2018rejuvenating the Chinese nation.\u2019<\/p>\n Xi\u2019s idea, which Trump is unwittingly endorsing, is that their countries should band together in a \u2018new model of great power relations<\/a>.\u2019 But it is hard to imagine how two countries with such opposing worldviews\u2014not to mention what Harvard University\u2019s Graham Allison has called<\/a> \u2018extreme superiority complexes\u2019\u2014can oversee world affairs effectively.<\/p>\n It is conceivable that Trump could flip again on China (or North Korea). Indeed, Trump\u2019s policy reversals may well turn out to be more dangerous than his actual policies. The need for constant adjustment will only stoke greater anxiety among America\u2019s allies and partners, who now run the risk that their core interests will be used as bargaining chips. If those anxieties prompt some countries to build up their militaries, Asia\u2019s strategic landscape will be fundamentally altered.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" US President Donald Trump\u2019s approach to foreign policy\u2014based on tactics and transactions, rather than strategic vision\u2014has produced a series of dazzling flip-flops. Lacking any guiding convictions, much less clear priorities, Trump has confounded America\u2019s allies …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":31533,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1428,285,204],"class_list":["post-31532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-donald-trump","tag-foreign-policy","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n