{"id":31669,"date":"2017-05-03T14:58:11","date_gmt":"2017-05-03T04:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=31669"},"modified":"2017-05-03T16:48:17","modified_gmt":"2017-05-03T06:48:17","slug":"future-frigates-not-fast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/","title":{"rendered":"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

The rumour du jour<\/em> in defence circles this week is that the planned date for beginning work on the future frigate program has been slipped a couple years, out to 2022. That\u2019s despite a robust defence of the originally mooted 2020 date<\/a> by the Minister for Defence Industry as recently as three weeks ago. Normally such a slippage would smack of poor project management and raise the spectre of delayed capability delivery to the ADF. But this seems to be a case of prudent engineering fundamentals reasserting themselves.<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s not entirely clear that the Department of Defence or Navy would regard this as a setback. A mid-2014 presentation by Navy<\/a> shows a 2022 start to the build phase (see slide 4). The enthusiasm for a 2020 start seems to have been largely been driven by the politics surrounding workforce considerations down in the Adelaide shipyard, where the Air Warfare Destroyer<\/a> (AWD) program is winding down and workers are being laid off<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Navy\u2019s 2015 schematic shows the detailed design period extending to the end of 2021. As I\u2019ll explain below, allowing time for careful design work makes sense. In fact, the 2015 slide assumes that the \u2018concept, preliminary and detail design\u2019 phase will extend for 7.5 years. From the outside it\u2019s impossible to tell if that timetable\u2019s on track, but there\u2019d have to be a chance that time\u2019s been lost. So even 2022 might result in a compressed process.<\/p>\n

But there doesn\u2019t seem to be much downside to a later kick-off, at least from a capability and project management perspective. For a start, the upgrade program to the Anzac frigates is only just winding up<\/a>, and those vessels are well placed to sail on for a few years yet. So there\u2019s no imperative from a frigate availability point of view. In fact, it will amortise the cost of the upgrade over a few more years of service, making it a more efficient use of taxpayer\u2019s funds.<\/p>\n

The more conspiratorially minded among the defence community suspect that the rumoured slip is an effort to play BAE\u2019s Type 26 frigate more firmly into the mix. It\u2019ll probably have that effect, as the other competitors have representative vessels already at sea while the British contender is only just entering production<\/a>. But I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the main reason. Instead, it\u2019s likely that the realities of the engineering task ahead are sinking in.<\/p>\n

None of the competing ships are \u2018off-the-shelf\u2019 fits to Australia\u2019s requirement. In fact, there\u2019s probably no such thing, given our stringent maritime regulatory requirements. In the AWD program, changes to meet local regulations led to many changes in the engineering drawings. (See the ANAO\u2019s 2014 report<\/a> for more detail.) So there\u2019s substantial work to be done to modify foreign designs even if we don\u2019t insist on Australian-unique changes for capability reasons.<\/p>\n

And in this case there are most certainly Australian-unique changes that will require rigorous systems engineering work. The indigenous (and very impressive) CEA phased array radar is formally described as a \u2018preference<\/a>\u2019 for the future frigates, but is mandated to all intents and purposes. Given that Minister Pyne has been in Canada spruiking the system to the RCN<\/a>, it\u2019s not credible that the RAN will get anything else.<\/p>\n

None of the three contenders have ever been fitted with that system, and history shows that the required modifications won\u2019t be straightforward. Data from the ANAO and Defence\u2019s own figures show that \u2018Australianising\u2019 systems is rarely easy. The CEA radar has been proven on the Anzac frigates, and so might be termed \u2018military-off-the-shelf\u2019 (MOTS). And the competing vessels could also be termed MOTS\u2014if somewhat charitably given the likely regulatory changes noted above. But life in defence systems engineering is rarely that simple. Gumley\u2019s second law<\/a> tells us that MOTS + MOTS \u2260 MOTS.<\/p>\n

And there\u2019s still some work to be done to sort out what combat system will be fitted to interface between the ships\u2019 sensors and weapons. The Anzacs have the Saab 9LV system, which is very effective. Retaining the CEA\/Saab combination would reduce the amount of integration work required. The competition for the combat system comes from the US-sourced Aegis system, which would have the advantage of commonality with the AWDs and with ballistic missile defence. The downside to Aegis would be yet another step of systems integration. Either way, these aren\u2019t things to be rushed. Working slowly and systematically can actually speed things up later<\/a> (and save money).<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot more to say about the Future Frigate program, including the pros and cons of each of the contenders. ASPI will air its views on those over the next few months, including the combat system choice. And James Mugg and I will be back on The Strategist <\/em>next week with some thoughts about the ways in which the government might handle the delay. (Spoiler: a ballistic missile defence capable fourth AWD wouldn\u2019t be silly in the current international environment.) But the rumoured \u2018slip\u2019 of a couple of years\u2014if true\u2014actually gives Australia a better chance of delivering an efficient build program when work finally commences.<\/p>\n

Correction: a previous version of this post incorrectly dated the Navy presentation slides as early 2015. The error was the author’s.
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rumour du jour in defence circles this week is that the planned date for beginning work on the future frigate program has been slipped a couple years, out to 2022. That\u2019s despite a robust …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":31670,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[113,1429,304,579],"class_list":["post-31669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-air-warfare-destroyer","tag-future-frigate","tag-royal-australian-navy","tag-shipbuilding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFuture Frigates\u2014not so fast! | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast! | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The rumour du jour in defence circles this week is that the planned date for beginning work on the future frigate program has been slipped a couple years, out to 2022. That\u2019s despite a robust ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-05-03T04:58:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-05-03T06:48:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/watch-1267420_640.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"426\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Davies\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/watch-1267420_640.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/watch-1267420_640.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":426,\"caption\":\"Image courtesy of Pixabay user Wild0ne.\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/\",\"name\":\"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast! | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-05-03T04:58:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-05-03T06:48:17+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast!\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73\",\"name\":\"Andrew Davies\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Andrew Davies\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/andrew-davies\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast! | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast! | The Strategist","og_description":"The rumour du jour in defence circles this week is that the planned date for beginning work on the future frigate program has been slipped a couple years, out to 2022. That\u2019s despite a robust ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2017-05-03T04:58:11+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-05-03T06:48:17+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":426,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/watch-1267420_640.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Andrew Davies","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Andrew Davies","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/watch-1267420_640.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/watch-1267420_640.jpg","width":640,"height":426,"caption":"Image courtesy of Pixabay user Wild0ne."},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/","name":"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast! | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2017-05-03T04:58:11+00:00","dateModified":"2017-05-03T06:48:17+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/future-frigates-not-fast\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Future Frigates\u2014not so fast!"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/08a9125f7af3039520d264e965235a73","name":"Andrew Davies","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bbb47ebb41d4978346dbf2e1d21b992a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Andrew Davies"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/andrew-davies\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31669"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31669"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31669\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31674,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31669\/revisions\/31674"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}