{"id":31754,"date":"2017-05-10T14:30:39","date_gmt":"2017-05-10T04:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=31754"},"modified":"2017-05-09T14:00:35","modified_gmt":"2017-05-09T04:00:35","slug":"putins-russian-roulette-afghanistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/putins-russian-roulette-afghanistan\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin\u2019s Russian roulette in Afghanistan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31755 size-full\" title=\"Image courtesy of Pixabay user janmarcust.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ammunition-2004236_640.jpg\" alt=\"Image courtesy of Pixabay user janmarcust.\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ammunition-2004236_640.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ammunition-2004236_640-205x136.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ammunition-2004236_640-332x221.jpg 332w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The recent Taliban <a href=\"http:\/\/nation.com.pk\/international\/27-Apr-2017\/afghanistan-arrests-35-soldiers-after-attack-on-base\">attack on an Afghan army post<\/a> outside Mazar-i-Sharif in northern Afghanistan\u2014the deadliest-ever by the Taliban on a military base, killing some 150 recruits\u2014underscores the terrorist group\u2019s growing strength more than 15 years after they were ousted from power. The attack confirms yet again that Afghanistan still has a major security problem, and it\u2019s not about to be resolved.<\/p>\n<p>There are still some 13,500 NATO troops which are part of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nato.int\/nato_static_fl2014\/assets\/pdf\/pdf_2017_03\/20170313_2017-03-RSM-Placemat.pdf\">Resolute Support Mission<\/a> which mentors and trains the Afghan security forces. An additional 1,500 US troops are involved in counterterrorism operations, hunting down al-Qaeda and Islamic State terrorists.<\/p>\n<p>However, even with these troops still in place and the US having spent some $1\u00a0trillion in war and reconstruction since 2001, the Taliban controls more territory today than it has since being ousted from power in 2001. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/12\/02\/world\/asia\/afghanistan-security-terrorism-taliban.html?&amp;_r=0\">According to US Central Command<\/a>, the Afghan government controls less than 60% of the territory, the Taliban about 10% and the remainder is contested.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the situation could get worse.<\/p>\n<p>General John Nicholson, the top US Commander in Afghanistan, <a href=\"https:\/\/thewire.in\/124530\/afghanistan-taliban-talks-russia\/\">stated<\/a> at a recent Congressional hearing that the Russians were providing military support to the Taliban. Russia has vehemently <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realcleardefense.com\/articles\/2017\/04\/21\/afghanistan_the_next_big_us-russia_proxy_battle_111217.html\">refuted<\/a> those accusations, insisting that Moscow\u2019s interaction with the Taliban is limited to convincing them to join negotiations. The Taliban has also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/asia_pacific\/with-us-policy-in-flux-russia-and-iran-challenge-american-power-in-afghanistan\/2017\/04\/12\/f8c768bc-1eb8-11e7-bb59-a74ccaf1d02f_story.html?utm_term=.3a1646be7ee4\">rejected<\/a> those claims but no one believes them.<\/p>\n<p>Notwithstanding those denials, Moscow has nevertheless <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pressreader.com\/usa\/the-washington-post\/20170414\/281719794451590\">been engaging the group<\/a>, believing that a strong relationship with the Taliban is essential for maintaining political stability in Afghanistan. In December 2015 President Putin\u2019s special representative to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyo.in\/politics\/isis-india-pak-ties-russia-pakistan-afghanistan-ties-cpec-china-taliban\/story\/1\/14918.html\">acknowledged<\/a> that \u2018Taliban interests objectively coincide with ours\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Russian authorities <a href=\"http:\/\/www.berkshireeagle.com\/stories\/while-the-us-wasnt-looking-russia-iran-began-carving-out-a-bigger-role-in-afghanistan,504228\">claim<\/a> that the Taliban is the only bulwark against the greater threat, the Islamic State in Khorasan, as IS is known in Afghanistan and Pakistan (ISIS-K). However, there\u2019s no evidence to support the claim that ISIS-K is a credible threat. Compared to the Taliban, which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-afghanistan-taliban-analysis-idUSKBN17P0RJ\">number in the thousands or tens of thousands<\/a>, ISIS-K remains an insignificant force. Even at its height in 2015, ISIS-K was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/two-us-troops-die-battling-islamic-state-militants-in-eastern-afghanistan\/2017\/04\/27\/14879ad8-2b55-11e7-be51-b3fc6ff7faee_story.html?utm_term=.be28e2c158ac\">estimated to only have about 600 to 800 fighters<\/a>. The Islamic State will have been further weakened with the <a href=\"http:\/\/time.com\/4770170\/islamic-state-afghan-leader-killed\/\">recent announcement<\/a> by US forces in Afghanistan that its leader, Abdul Hasib, had been killed by Afghan and US forces in late April.<\/p>\n<p>Russia potentially arming the Taliban further complicates an already intractable situation and, as General Nicholson <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/us-defense-chief-arrives-in-kabul-as-afghan-defense-minister-resigns-in-disgrace\/2017\/04\/24\/b52e8828-28c8-11e7-a616-d7c8a68c1a66_story.html?utm_term=.22c21db1ca82\">stated<\/a> recently, \u2018is not the best way forward for a peaceful reconciliation\u2019 in Afghanistan. But that will hardly deter President Putin from deepening Russia\u2019s relationship with the Taliban if he decides it\u2019s in Russia\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n<p>President Trump has asked National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster to review US strategy in Afghanistan. General <a href=\"http:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/articles\/mattis-afghanistan-troop-increase\">Nicholson has recommended<\/a> that the US military commitment in Afghanistan be increased by some 3,000 troops. While the Trump administration hasn\u2019t indicated whether it will support such a recommendation, a majority of those residing in the Pentagon\u2019s upper echelons support an increase in troop levels. The review should be finalised soon.<\/p>\n<p>Kabul\u2019s neighbours will have mixed feelings about Russia\u2019s deepening involvement in Afghanistan. Iran, which has also been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/asia_pacific\/with-us-policy-in-flux-russia-and-iran-challenge-american-power-in-afghanistan\/2017\/04\/12\/f8c768bc-1eb8-11e7-bb59-a74ccaf1d02f_story.html?utm_term=.8e27a39f1004\">accused of arming<\/a> and providing battlefield advice to the Taliban, will welcome Russia. In a continuation of their anti-Western strategic alliance in Syria, Moscow and Tehran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/asia_pacific\/with-us-policy-in-flux-russia-and-iran-challenge-american-power-in-afghanistan\/2017\/04\/12\/f8c768bc-1eb8-11e7-bb59-a74ccaf1d02f_story.html?utm_term=.8e27a39f1004\">have been working together to accelerate the US withdrawal <\/a>from Afghanistan.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, China won\u2019t be pleased. Moscow\u2019s increased meddling complicates Beijing\u2019s drive to increase its presence in Central Asia, including in Afghanistan, especially through its multi-faceted \u2018One Belt, One Road\u2019 project. Moreover, the Taliban has links with the Uighur-dominated East Turkestan Islamic Movement which regularly attacks Chinese authorities in western China. But Moscow isn\u2019t about to cede that strategic space\u2014Russia\u2019s backyard since the 19th century\u2014to China.<\/p>\n<p>India, which traditionally supports Afghanistan\u2019s non-Pushtun ethnic groups, also won\u2019t welcome Russia\u2019s increased activity in Afghanistan, particularly its support for the Pushtun-dominated Taliban. But what should really worry the Indians is Moscow\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyo.in\/single-story.php?id=MTQ5MTg=\">increasing cosiness with Islamabad<\/a>, particularly in the military sphere, and what that will mean for the future of India\u2019s long-standing bilateral relationship with Russia.<\/p>\n<p>As such, it\u2019s not surprising that Islamabad welcomes Moscow\u2019s increased involvement in Afghanistan. As a matter of fact it recently asked the Russian government \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenews.com.pk\/latest\/201049-pakistan-asks-Russia-to-help-stabilize-afghanistan\">to lead the process of stabilization<\/a>\u2019 in Afghanistan. It remains to be seen what that actually means.<\/p>\n<p>However, Islamabad should be wary of Moscow\u2019s military support for the Taliban. In the long-term, a political victory for the Taliban in Afghanistan wouldn\u2019t be good news for Pakistan. A Taliban-dominated government in Kabul would give the Pakistan Taliban (the TTP as it\u2019s called)\u2014a close military and political ally of the Afghan Taliban\u2014a real psychological and military fillip in their fight against Islamabad. Importantly, a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan would give the TTP a safe springboard from which it could launch attacks back into Pakistan.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly, is it really in Moscow\u2019s interest to eventually see the Taliban back in power in Kabul? The return of the Taliban would signal to Moscow\u2019s restive extremists in the Caucasus\u2014Russia\u2019s soft underbelly\u2014that jihad against the established order pays off. In sum, by trying to get even with the West in the short-term, Putin\u2019s playing a very dangerous game, one that may well come back to haunt him in the long-term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recent Taliban attack on an Afghan army post outside Mazar-i-Sharif in northern Afghanistan\u2014the deadliest-ever by the Taliban on a military base, killing some 150 recruits\u2014underscores the terrorist group\u2019s growing strength more than 15 years &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":31755,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[43,772,163,1088],"class_list":["post-31754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-afghanistan","tag-geopolitics","tag-russia","tag-taliban"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast 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