{"id":31781,"date":"2017-05-11T11:00:42","date_gmt":"2017-05-11T01:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=31781"},"modified":"2017-05-10T15:17:38","modified_gmt":"2017-05-10T05:17:38","slug":"can-macron-pull-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/can-macron-pull-off\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Macron pull it off?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Image<\/p>\n

Emmanuel Macron\u2019s victory over Marine Le Pen was much-needed good news for anyone who favors open, liberal democratic societies over their nativist, xenophobic counterparts. But the battle against right-wing populism is far from won.<\/p>\n

Le Pen received more than a third of the second-round vote, even though only one party other than her own National Front\u2014Nicolas Dupont-Aignan\u2019s small Debout la France<\/em>\u2014gave her any backing. And turnout was apparently sharply down<\/a> from previous presidential elections, indicating a large number of disaffected voters. If Macron fails during the next five years, Le Pen will be back with a vengeance, and nativist populists will gain strength in Europe and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

As a candidate, Macron was helped in this age of anti-establishment politics by the fact that he stood outside traditional political parties. As president, however, that same fact is a singular disadvantage. His political movement, En Marche !<\/em>, \u00a0is only a year old. He will have to build from scratch a legislative majority following the National Assembly elections next month.<\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s economic ideas resist easy characterization. During the presidential campaign, he was frequently accused of lacking specifics. To many on the left and the extreme right, he is a neoliberal, with little to distinguish himself from the mainstream policies of austerity that failed Europe and brought it to its current political impasse. The French economist Thomas Piketty, who supported the socialist candidate Beno\u00eet Hamon, described<\/a> Macron as representing \u2018yesterday\u2019s Europe.\u2019<\/p>\n

Many of Macron\u2019s economic plans<\/a> do indeed have a neoliberal flavor. He has vowed to lower the corporate tax rate from 33.5% to 25%, cut 120,000 civil service jobs, keep the government deficit below the EU limit of 3% of GDP, and increase labor-market flexibility (a euphemism for making it easier for firms to fire workers). But he has promised to maintain pension benefits, and his preferred social model appears to be Nordic-style flexicurity\u2014a combination of high levels of economic security with market-based incentives.<\/p>\n

None of these steps will do much\u2014certainly not in the short run\u2014to address the key challenge that will define Macron\u2019s presidency: creating jobs. As Martin Sandbu notes<\/a>, employment was the French electorate\u2019s top concern and should be the new administration\u2019s top priority. Since the eurozone crisis, French unemployment has remained high, at 10%\u2014and close to 25% for people under 25 years old. There is virtually no evidence<\/a> that liberalizing labor markets will increase employment, unless the French economy receives a significant boost in aggregate demand as well.<\/p>\n

This is where the other component of Macron\u2019s economic program comes into play. He has proposed<\/a> a five-year, \u20ac50 billion ($54.4 billion) stimulus plan, which would include investments in infrastructure and green technologies, along with expanded training for the unemployed. But, given that this is barely more than 2% of France\u2019s annual GDP, the stimulus plan on its own may not do too much to lift overall employment.<\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s more ambitious idea is to take a big leap toward a eurozone fiscal union, with a common treasury and a single finance minister. This would enable, in his view, permanent fiscal transfers from the stronger countries to countries that are disadvantaged by the eurozone\u2019s common monetary policy. The eurozone budget would be financed by contributions from member states\u2019 tax receipts. A separate eurozone parliament would provide political oversight and accountability. Such fiscal unification would make it possible for countries like France to increase infrastructure spending and boost job creation without busting fiscal ceilings.<\/p>\n

A fiscal union backed up by deeper political integration makes eminent sense. At least it represents a coherent path<\/a> out of the eurozone\u2019s present no man\u2019s land. But Macron\u2019s unabashedly Europeanist policies are not just a matter of politics or principle. They are also critical to the success of his economic program. Without either greater fiscal flexibility or transfers from the rest of the eurozone, France is unlikely to get out of its employment funk soon. The success of Macron\u2019s presidency thus depends to a large extent on European cooperation.<\/p>\n

And that brings us to Germany. Angela Merkel\u2019s initial reaction to the election\u2019s outcome was not encouraging. She congratulated<\/a> Macron, who \u2018carries the hopes of millions of French people,\u2019 but she also stated that she would not consider changes in eurozone fiscal rules. Even if Merkel (or a future government under Martin Schulz) were more willing, there is the problem of the German electorate. Having portrayed the eurozone crisis not as a problem of interdependence, but as a morality tale\u2014thrifty, hard-working Germans pitted against profligate, duplicitous debtors\u2014German politicians will not have an easy time bringing their voters along on any common fiscal project.<\/p>\n

Anticipating the German reaction, Macron has countered it<\/a>: \u2018You cannot say I am for a strong Europe and globalization, but over my dead body for a transfer union.\u2019 That, he believes, is a recipe for disintegration and reactionary politics: \u2018Without transfers, you will not allow the periphery to converge and will create political divergence towards extremists.\u2019<\/p>\n

France may not be in the European periphery, but Macron\u2019s message to Germany is clear: Either you help me out and we build a true union\u2014economic, fiscal, and eventually political\u2014or we will be run over by the extremist onslaught.<\/p>\n

Macron is almost certainly right. For the sake of France, Europe, and the rest of the world, we must hope that his victory is followed by a German change of heart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emmanuel Macron\u2019s victory over Marine Le Pen was much-needed good news for anyone who favors open, liberal democratic societies over their nativist, xenophobic counterparts. But the battle against right-wing populism is far from won. Le …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":535,"featured_media":31782,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[83,1025,291,759],"class_list":["post-31781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-elections","tag-european-union","tag-france","tag-globalisation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan Macron pull it off? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/can-macron-pull-off\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Macron pull it off? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Emmanuel Macron\u2019s victory over Marine Le Pen was much-needed good news for anyone who favors open, liberal democratic societies over their nativist, xenophobic counterparts. 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