{"id":32109,"date":"2017-05-31T14:30:58","date_gmt":"2017-05-31T04:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=32109"},"modified":"2017-05-29T11:44:05","modified_gmt":"2017-05-29T01:44:05","slug":"us-budget-fy2018-f-35-super-hornet-updates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-budget-fy2018-f-35-super-hornet-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"US budget FY2018: F-35 and Super Hornet updates"},"content":{"rendered":"

As long-term readers will know, we keep a watching brief on American aircraft development and production programs that are relevant to Australia. The two most significant ones are the RAAF\u2019s current and future first line strike fighters\u2014the F\/A-18 Super Hornet and F-35A Joint Strike Fighter respectively. The Pentagon budget requests for Fiscal Year 2018 have just been released, so it\u2019s time to update our figures.<\/p>\n

Previous analyses of the F-35 program are here: FY2014<\/a>, FY2015<\/a>, FY2016<\/a>, FY2017<\/a> for the A model (which Australia is buying) and here<\/a> for a look at the other variants. Our most recent look at the Super Hornet program is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The big news about the F-35 program is that there\u2019s no big news\u2014things seem to be on track and delivery is ramping up as costs are coming down. While it might make for a less than compelling blog piece, it\u2019s good news for both the American forces and for the aircraft\u2019s international customers.<\/p>\n

Here are the figures. The red line in the chart below is the latest budget projection for cost, in constant 2017 dollars. It looks like the F-35A unit flyaway cost is levelling out at a figure a little under US$85 million. That\u2019s about what was predicted in the FY2008 budget request, but it\u2019s fair to say that it has been a wild ride between then and now. (And it\u2019s also fair to say that there\u2019s no evidence for any \u2018Trump miracle<\/a>\u2019 in F-35 costs.)<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

The stability in the future cost figures, which have changed little in the past three budget cycles, suggests confidence that there will be no major interruptions to the remaining development program. Consistent with that, this year\u2019s figures also show a steady ramp up in production rate from this year. On these figures (which don\u2019t include international aircraft), the 500th F-35A will be delivered in 2022.<\/p>\n

While all the signs are good for the delivery of Australia\u2019s aircraft in the period 2018\u20132023, \u2018never say never\u2019 is good advice when talking about even the final stages of development of complex equipment. As we\u2019ve argued before, the Super Hornet is Australia\u2019s obvious fall-back position<\/a> should anything go wrong, and the story there is encouraging as well.<\/p>\n

In fact, the Super Hornet is having something of an \u201cIndian summer\u201d. President Trump has been a frequent advocate of the naval fighter, famously tweeting in December that he was considering the platform as an alternative to the F-35. Since then, Boeing has been on the offensive, most recently proposing an even more capable<\/a> Block III Super Hornet as an alternative to the F-35C.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no approved program to develop the Block III, but Block II Super Hornet production is ramping up again. In March, the President proposed<\/a> that the Pentagon fund an additional 24 Super Hornets in the present fiscal year (FY2017), which ends in September. Those 24 Super Hornets are present in the USN\u2019s FY2018 budget for aircraft procurement<\/a> [PDF, p.71]. While they didn\u2019t agree to bankroll the full 24, the US Congress approved<\/a> 14 additional aircraft in the final FY2017 budget.<\/p>\n

The final chart below shows changes to Super Hornet acquisition plans, based on annual USN budget proposals. The number of aircraft was increased every year in the early 2010s, then capped at 563 aircraft in 2015\/2016, before the recent additional bump.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

The FY2018 budget estimates include projections for an additional 66 Super Hornets between FY2019 and FY2022 that weren\u2019t present in last year\u2019s budget estimates. That\u2019s good news for anyone else considering buying Super Hornets (Kuwait, Canada), since it keeps the production line active and costs stable. And it\u2019s good news for those of us who think that a further Super Hornet purchase is the best Plan B in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a major setback to the F-35 program.<\/p>\n

It would be a mistake to interpret this as a move away from the carrier variant F-35C, even though production of the latter is slightly slowed in the new budget (about 6 fewer total aircraft by FY2021). It\u2019s more likely about the USN\u2019s strike fighter readiness crisis, as new-build Super Hornets are the most \u2018ready to go\u2019 option for the USN. That\u2019s consistent with Defence Secretary Mattis\u2019 comments<\/a> that he wants to prioritise readiness over modernisation or expansion.<\/p>\n

About two thirds<\/a> of the USN\u2019s strike fighters are currently unavailable at any given time due to required maintenance or insufficient spare parts. That\u2019s partially due to earlier delays in the F-35 program, and partially due to underfunded recent sustainment budgets. Buying new aircraft will help take some of strain off the system. And it leaves open the USN with the option of ramping up Super Hornet production or shifting to Block III later.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As long-term readers will know, we keep a watching brief on American aircraft development and production programs that are relevant to Australia. The two most significant ones are the RAAF\u2019s current and future first line …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":32110,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[120,271,39,270],"class_list":["post-32109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-budget","tag-f-35","tag-joint-strike-fighter","tag-super-hornets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS budget FY2018: F-35 and Super Hornet updates | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-budget-fy2018-f-35-super-hornet-updates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US budget FY2018: F-35 and Super Hornet updates | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As long-term readers will know, we keep a watching brief on American aircraft development and production programs that are relevant to Australia. 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