{"id":32209,"date":"2017-06-05T12:30:33","date_gmt":"2017-06-05T02:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=32209"},"modified":"2017-06-05T13:42:14","modified_gmt":"2017-06-05T03:42:14","slug":"accidental-friction-belt-road","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/","title":{"rendered":"Accidental friction on the Belt and Road"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-32258 size-full\" title=\"Image courtesy of the author.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/BRI-Map.jpg\" alt=\"Image courtesy of the author.\" width=\"640\" height=\"492\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/BRI-Map.jpg 640w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/BRI-Map-205x158.jpg 205w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>President Xi Jinping\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/1046925.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)<\/a> has caused much discussion about China\u2019s vision for engaging the world economically. In many ways, it can bring \u2018win\u2013win\u2019 opportunities for China\u2019s economic partners, but there\u2019s also potential for less desirable, unintended consequences arising from this ambitious plan.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s rise has seen its footprint of personnel and commercial interests overseas expand at a bewildering pace over the past two decades. Many Chinese continue to leave their shores in search of wealth and resources, either as individuals or as members of large commercial organisations. Chinese communities overseas, estimated at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dtic.mil\/docs\/citations\/ADA483586\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">35\u00a0million nine years ago<\/a>, have become valuable assets in connecting China to the outside world, but they are also a potential liability. While this growing presence and influence can develop strategic interests beyond the original design, a growing subset of them are increasingly at risk from natural disasters, breakdowns of civil order, acts of terrorism, and exposure to war zones.<\/p>\n<p>This growth in overseas Chinese communities has been accompanied by the continued expansion of military capability to protect China\u2019s interests abroad and the development of a substantial middle class that expects the Communist Party to protect the Chinese diaspora. Such a development of risk accompanied by the means and expectation to address it generates a perceived obligation to act in self-defence overseas.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/china-to-build-naval-logistics-facility-in-djibouti-1448557719\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">first <\/a>declared overseas military base, in the port of Obock in Djibouti, is an example of what can follow the development of commercial interests. The base will support counter-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, enable China\u2019s deployment of combat troops on peacekeeping operations on the African continent, and provide protection for Chinese oil imports from the Middle East at a strategic node in the BRI.<\/p>\n<p>This combination of trends in growth, interests, capability and obligation is demonstrated by the recent phenomenon of Chinese evacuation operations. Referred to in China as <a href=\"http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/PP\/SIPRIPP41.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u2018overseas citizen protection\u2019<\/a>, they have been conducted since 2006. At the turn of the century, China didn\u2019t have the capacity, or policy, to conduct evacuation operations, and seemed content to ask other countries to evacuate its citizens.<\/p>\n<p>In 2004, when 14\u00a0Chinese workers were killed in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1080\/10670564.2014.898900\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">domestic reaction caused China to review<\/a> its overseas citizen protection system, acknowledging that large numbers of Chinese were living in high-risk environments overseas. China started to conduct small evacuations using civilian means to extract citizens from Solomon Islands, Timor Leste, Tonga and Lebanon in 2006, Chad and Thailand in 2008, and Haiti and Kyrgyzstan in 2010.<\/p>\n<p>The largest evacuations occurred in 2011, during the Arab Spring uprisings, when China retrieved 1,800\u00a0citizens from Egypt, 2,000\u00a0from Syria and 35,860\u00a0from Libya, along with 9,000\u00a0from Japan after the Tohoku earthquake. The 48,000 Chinese evacuated in 2011 were more than <a href=\"http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/PP\/SIPRIPP41.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">five times the total<\/a> number evacuated between 1980 and 2010.<\/p>\n<p>This was the first such operation to significantly <a href=\"http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/PP\/SIPRIPP41.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">involve the PLA<\/a> in more than decision-making and interagency coordination in Beijing, providing surveillance, deterrence, escort and evacuation by air in the operation itself.<\/p>\n<p>More recently, between 30\u00a0March and 2\u00a0April 2015, a Chinese flotilla of three PLAN naval vessels was diverted from its counter-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden to evacuate Chinese citizens from the port of Aden in Yemen. Some 563\u00a0Chinese citizens and 233\u00a0foreign citizens of 13\u00a0other nationalities were <a href=\"http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2015-04\/04\/c_134124700.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">evacuated by the PLAN to Djibouti<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This was a significant development, as it was performed exclusively with military assets and was the first time the PLAN had <a href=\"http:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2015\/04\/china-evacuates-foreign-nationals-from-yemen\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">evacuated citizens of other countries<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>According to one <a href=\"http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/PP\/SIPRIPP41.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">analysis<\/a>, the requirement to protect nationals abroad is much more likely to cause Chinese foreign policy to become interventionist than the protection of energy interests, largely because of public and government attention. There\u2019s a risk that as China acts to protect its interests in areas perceived as of lesser strategic priority, such as the Southwest Pacific, its actions will generate unintended second and third order effects, with undesirable strategic consequences. This possibility has been referred to as <a href=\"http:\/\/bellschool.anu.edu.au\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/attachments\/2017-02\/engaging_china_s_new_foreign_policy_in_the_south_pacific.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u2018accidental friction\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s evidence of an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/272144557_Beijing's_Orphans_New_Chinese_Investors_in_Papua_New_Guinea\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">anti-Chinese mindset<\/a> in Melanesian societies, associated with a belief that the \u2018new Chinese\u2019 are taking away <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1080\/00223344.2011.653482\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">local jobs<\/a>. This perception is reinforced by <a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s12140-012-9177-0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">negative media coverage<\/a> of Chinese commercial ventures in the Pacific. Such tensions occasionally boil over into anti-Chinese violence, such as that seen in Solomon Islands and Tonga in 2006 and PNG in 2009. However, public and government opinion in China is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1080\/00223344.2011.653482\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">not always sympathetic<\/a> to the Chinese who are targeted in these riots.<\/p>\n<p>Given the potential for anti-Chinese riots in the South Pacific, the requirement for Chinese \u2018overseas citizen protection\u2019 may become a reality in <a href=\"http:\/\/bellschool.anu.edu.au\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/attachments\/2017-02\/engaging_china_s_new_foreign_policy_in_the_south_pacific.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Melanesia in the near future<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>If Australian and Chinese military contingents were to find themselves involved in an evacuation operation in a difficult or threatening environment, and without prior preparation, the consequences may be undesirable. A lack of understanding of each other\u2019s techniques, control measures and rules of engagement could be quite dangerous to all involved. Such unintended consequences could be mitigated by <a href=\"http:\/\/bellschool.anu.edu.au\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/attachments\/2017-02\/engaging_china_s_new_foreign_policy_in_the_south_pacific.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">engaging, understanding and cooperating<\/a> well before this happens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Xi Jinping\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has caused much discussion about China\u2019s vision for engaging the world economically. In many ways, it can bring \u2018win\u2013win\u2019 opportunities for China\u2019s economic partners, but there\u2019s also &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":652,"featured_media":32258,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1920,52,1228,99],"class_list":["post-32209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-belt-and-road-initiative","tag-china","tag-pla-n","tag-south-pacific"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Accidental friction on the Belt and Road | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Accidental friction on the Belt and Road | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Xi Jinping\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has caused much discussion about China\u2019s vision for engaging the world economically. In many ways, it can bring \u2018win\u2013win\u2019 opportunities for China\u2019s economic partners, but there\u2019s also ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-06-05T02:30:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-06-05T03:42:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/BRI-Map.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"492\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Connolly\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Connolly\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI&#039;s analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/BRI-Map.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/BRI-Map.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":492,\"caption\":\"Image courtesy of the author.\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/\",\"name\":\"Accidental friction on the Belt and Road | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-06-05T02:30:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-06-05T03:42:14+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/be038b42b8f41263f4560ddc1718dd6b\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Accidental friction on the Belt and Road\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/be038b42b8f41263f4560ddc1718dd6b\",\"name\":\"Peter Connolly\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0aa1f9867b512c5785aaafd786e231fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0aa1f9867b512c5785aaafd786e231fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Peter Connolly\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/peter-connolly\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Accidental friction on the Belt and Road | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/accidental-friction-belt-road\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Accidental friction on the Belt and Road | The Strategist","og_description":"President Xi Jinping\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has caused much discussion about China\u2019s vision for engaging the world economically. 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