{"id":32225,"date":"2017-06-03T09:56:57","date_gmt":"2017-06-02T23:56:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=32225"},"modified":"2017-06-03T09:59:34","modified_gmt":"2017-06-02T23:59:34","slug":"malcolm-turnbull-asias-times-trumps-hunger-games","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/malcolm-turnbull-asias-times-trumps-hunger-games\/","title":{"rendered":"Malcolm Turnbull on Asia\u2019s times and Trump\u2019s Hunger Games"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2018In this brave new world we cannot rely on great powers to safeguard our interests.\u2019
\n<\/em>Malcolm Turnbull, Singapore, June 2, 2017.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s Prime Minister has given a big Asia speech that attacked China directly while aiming indirect attacks at Donald Trump\u2019s world view.<\/p>\n

Malcolm Turnbull didn\u2019t say one critical word about Trump. Instead, Turnbull dumped implicit acid on US policies, while only twice mentioning Trump (relatively positively) by name.<\/p>\n

The problem for Turnbull\u2019s Singapore oration<\/a> was that all big foreign policy speeches are hostage to the times and the troubles. And Turnbull\u2019s Asia moment was ambushed by Trump\u2019s context.<\/p>\n

Turnbull opened a Shangri-La security conference that finds itself in an unusual place\u2014more worried about US intentions and leadership than about China. Strange days, indeed, when the reigning hegemon is more unpredictable than the rising power.<\/p>\n

The times-and-troubles frame for the PM is a US President who sees international relations as a version of The Hunger Games. Trump has promised a foreign policy<\/a> of \u2018Principled Realism rooted in common values, shared interests, and common sense\u2019. But the Hobbesian interpretation of that realism in the op-ed by Trump\u2019s national security adviser and chief economic aide<\/a> is \u2018a clear-eyed outlook that the world is not a \u201cglobal community\u201d but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors and businesses engage and compete for advantage\u2019. So no community, just a crude view of power.<\/a> And The Donald doesn\u2019t believe in shackling US power to \u2018global community\u2019 constructs like the Paris Climate Change Agreement.<\/p>\n

The tactic of thumping Trump without mentioning Trump was most on show in the PM\u2019s one paragraph registering disappointment at the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris pact:<\/p>\n

\u2018Some have been concerned the withdrawal from the TPP and now from the Paris Climate Change Agreement herald a US withdrawal from global leadership. While these decisions are disappointing, we should take care not to rush to interpret an intent to engage on different terms as one not to engage at all.\u2019<\/p>\n

Turnbull had his Angela Merkel<\/a> moment with the thought that Australia and Asia can\u2019t depend on China and the US to fix our problems. Following the Merkel example, Turnbull didn\u2019t actually name the troublesome giants:<\/p>\n

\u2018In this brave new world we cannot rely on great powers to safeguard our interests. We have to take responsibility for our own security and prosperity while recognising we are stronger when sharing the burden of collective leadership with trusted partners and friends. The gathering clouds of uncertainty and instability are signals for all of us to play more active roles in protecting and shaping the future of this region.\u2019<\/p>\n

Contemplate the moment when an Oz Liberal PM couldn\u2019t quite rely on our great and powerful friend. Malcolm Turnbull\u2019s alliance love comes with caveats:<\/p>\n

\u2018Our Alliance with the United States reflects a deep alignment of interests and values but it has never been a straightjacket for Australian policy-making. It has never prevented us from vigorously advancing our own interests. And it certainly does not abrogate our responsibility for our own destiny.\u2019<\/p>\n

The public Oz position on Trump still reads: \u2018No problem here. Nothing to see. Move along.\u2019<\/p>\n

The Defence Minister, Marise Payne, presented a fine example of that genre in Singapore on Friday morning after the ministerial meeting of the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA = Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand and Britain). At the presser, the first question was whether FPDA is being enhanced as an alternative to the US security role in Asia.<\/p>\n

Senator Payne replied by saying that in Australian Rules footy, the question would be described as a \u2018drop punt\u2019. I later tackled the Defence Minister with the charge that this was a nonsensical footy analogy that worked only because Asia hacks know nothing about Oz football. To which, Marise Payne replied with a laugh: \u2018That\u2019s exactly why I used it\u2019.<\/p>\n

My translation: when asked about Trump and Asia, resort to opaque football metaphors (the Oz version of ancient Chinese proverbs) and hold to a public script that doesn\u2019t kick Trump. The tough talking is to be done in private.<\/p>\n

Before his Shangri-La speech, Turnbull had a bilateral with the US Defense Secretary, James Mattis. There\u2019ll be another chance on Monday, when Mattis and Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, are in Sydney for the annual AUSMIN talks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Turnbull\u2019s cautious\/hopeful handling of Trump contrasts with his robust language about the \u2018dark view\u2019 of a \u2018coercive China\u2019 seeking domination. He challenged China to strengthen the regional order as it reaches for greater strategic influence:<\/p>\n

\u2018Some fear that China will seek to impose a latter day Monroe Doctrine on this hemisphere in order to dominate the region, marginalising the role and contribution of other nations, in particular the United States. Such a dark view of our future would see China isolating those who stand in opposition to, or are not aligned with, its interests while using its economic largesse to reward those toeing the line… A coercive China would find its neighbours resenting demands they cede their autonomy and strategic space, and look to counterweight Beijing\u2019s power by bolstering alliances and partnerships, between themselves and especially with the United States.\u2019<\/p>\n

In last year\u2019s Defence White Paper, Australia was obsessed by the need for rules and order<\/a>: the word \u2018rules\u2019 was used 64 times\u201448 of those in the formulation \u2018rules-based global order\u2019. Then, Australia used the \u2018rules\u2019 injunction as code for fears about China. Now the call for rules and order is directed as much at the US as China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018In this brave new world we cannot rely on great powers to safeguard our interests.\u2019 Malcolm Turnbull, Singapore, June 2, 2017. 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