{"id":326,"date":"2012-07-26T08:04:50","date_gmt":"2012-07-25T22:04:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=326"},"modified":"2012-07-26T08:04:50","modified_gmt":"2012-07-25T22:04:50","slug":"reader-response-risk-strategy-and-luck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/reader-response-risk-strategy-and-luck\/","title":{"rendered":"Reader response: risk, strategy and luck"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hugh White nicely <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/reader-response-risk-threat-and-insurance\/\" target=\"_blank\">joins<\/a> the fray in focusing on the key difference between risks and threats: time. That is, a risk can turn into a threat over time, and vice versa. As Hugh says, risk may be the \u2018foundation of defence policy\u2019 but I think we should be sure about what choosing such an approach leaves out.<\/p>\n<p>In an earlier <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/grand-strategy-what-does-that-do-for-me\/\" target=\"_blank\">post<\/a>, I noted that risk management is not a strategy. As Hugh said more eloquently then me, risk management is \u2018about preparing against the possibility that dangers might arise in future.\u2019 This means having defence capabilities available just in case, ready to respond to particular events if they occur\u2014and we really, really hope they don\u2019t. By contrast, as strategy has a defined end, defence capabilities are developed and used to try to achieve that end.<\/p>\n<p>If we see military forces as being used as instruments for pursuing \u2018politics by other means\u2019 in the best Clausewitzian tradition, then military forces are useful across the spectrum of peace and war. From our point of view as a rather smug status quo power, then we may wish to\u00a0<em>try<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em>to shape our future in a particular direction that ensures that bad things do not happen to us, using the military as one tool amongst many to that end. This is conceptually a long way from sitting and waiting for a tragedy to occur.<\/p>\n<p>Some hold that risk management is more than just awaiting events\u2014that is, it involves being so obviously prepared that this shapes another\u2019s thinking and they are dissuaded from taking \u2018risky\u2019 actions. This however sounds somewhat like deterrence, a strategy focused on someone at some time to convince them not to carry out some act. In short, shaping the future into a particular kind of desired international order.<\/p>\n<p>Risk is about preparing for possible dangers, strategy can be working to try to make them not happen. Which is better for us? To paraphrase Clint Eastwood \u2018do we feel lucky\u2019? Or should we at least try to make our own luck?<\/p>\n<p>We should think carefully whether risk management is the best foundation for our defence policy as there may be alternatives worth exploring.<\/p>\n<p><em>Peter Layton\u00a0<em>is undertaking a research PhD in grand strategy at UNSW.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hugh White nicely joins the fray in focusing on the key difference between risks and threats: time. That is, a risk can turn into a threat over time, and vice versa. As Hugh says, risk &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[17,1425,35,21,36],"class_list":["post-326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-defence-white-paper-2013","tag-australia","tag-defence-white-paper-2013","tag-risk","tag-strategy-2","tag-threat"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Reader response: risk, strategy and luck | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/reader-response-risk-strategy-and-luck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reader response: risk, strategy and luck | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hugh White nicely joins the fray in focusing on the key difference between risks and threats: time. 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