{"id":32722,"date":"2017-07-06T09:00:52","date_gmt":"2017-07-05T23:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=32722"},"modified":"2017-07-05T16:41:50","modified_gmt":"2017-07-05T06:41:50","slug":"north-korea-plot-thickens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-plot-thickens\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korea: the plot thickens"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

North Korea\u2019s latest provocation\u2014a successful test of an intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM)\u2014brings the long-building crisis on the Korean peninsula to a dangerous flashpoint. For one thing, it\u2019s clear evidence that North Korea aspires not merely to have a nuclear-weapons program, but to be able to target the continental US. And that\u2019s a dangerous aspiration for a risk-tolerant pariah state to have. While some are undoubtedly hoping that the bilateral relationship will evolve into one of long-term deterrence, it\u2019s far from clear that Washington can tolerate a relationship of mutual vulnerability with such an actor.<\/p>\n

But we\u2019ve reached a point where only seriously costly options could offer a real prospect of reversing North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile programs, because those options involve either regime change or war (and perhaps both). True, there\u2019s increased discussion about increased discussion: something I\u2019d feel happier about if the record of previous negotiations were a little less underwhelming. China\u2019s gone back to pushing its idea of \u2018a cap for a cap\u2019: a freeze on North Korea\u2019s programs in exchange for a freeze on US \u2013 South Korean military exercises. To be frank, that idea\u2019s unappealing. While there\u2019s some<\/em> residual value in \u2018freezing\u2019 programs that have already demonstrated a considerable measure of success, staying in a freeze isn\u2019t a long-term option\u2014and Pyongyang has stated bluntly that it has no intention of denuclearising. (Indeed, it has written its nuclear status into its Constitution.) Not to mention that US \u2013 South Korean exercises are a necessary part of ensuring the effectiveness of the alliance.<\/p>\n

Sanctions could surely be tightened. But they are so blunt, slow and uneven that it would take years to ensure they exercised decisive leverage upon Pyongyang\u2019s policy choices. Certainly the North Korean economy\u2019s in relatively good shape today<\/a>\u2014comparatively speaking, of course. It\u2019s absolutely no match for the South Korean economy, but nor is Kim Jong-un\u2019s regime under real economic duress. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has developed considerable skill in sanctions-busting, especially through the judicious use of front companies.<\/p>\n

And so we come back to the military options. At one end of the spectrum, that just means strengthening deterrence against North Korean provocations, and making sure that Pyongyang understands that either direct use of a nuclear weapon or conventional adventurism under the cover of the North\u2019s relatively small nuclear umbrella would be met with an appropriately costly response. One option would be to return US tactical nuclear warheads to South Korea. But Washington is reluctant to do that, not least because it would suggest that it\u2019s \u2018balancing\u2019 North Korea as a recognised nuclear power. Similarly, notwithstanding Donald Trump\u2019s remarks on the election hustings last year, Washington isn\u2019t keen to see South Korea and Japan construct their own indigenous nuclear arsenals. That would open a Pandora\u2019s box of proliferation worries both in Asia and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

A second option would be to take direct steps against the North\u2019s missile program, for example. A concerted effort of cyber warfare, electronic warfare and ballistic missile defence could slow the program. Slowing it beyond that might require provocative steps, such as pre-emptive attacks on launch facilities. But that option will become steadily more difficult as the North \u2018hardens\u2019 potential cyber targets and moves towards the greater use of mobile missile launchers\u2014something it\u2019s already doing.<\/p>\n

A direct military attack on North Korea to degrade its nuclear and missile programs would be the most serious of all military options. In the long run, it\u2019s probably the surest path to the end goal\u2014but in the short run, Pyongyang would have available to it a set of response options that would do serious damage to both Seoul and, perhaps, Tokyo.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s why some analysts have their fingers crossed that the situation can slide\u2014however ungracefully\u2014into a long-term relationship of nuclear deterrence between North Korea and the US. But is that really a tolerable outcome? During the Cold War, the Soviet Union endured a relationship with France under which Paris threatened to \u2018rip the arm off\u2019 the USSR and leave it a one-armed superpower. Would the US be prepared to endure a similar relationship with North Korea? To be honest, it\u2019s a doubtful proposition. North Korea is not France. It\u2019s a pariah state. Even leaving it as a long-term nuclear-armed actor is bad enough\u2014because Pyongyang might eventually decide to sell key weapons technologies or actual devices to others. But accepting a long-term relationship of mutual vulnerability with such an actor is a more difficult proposition than it first appears.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, the latest missile test can only sharpen worries in Seoul about a potential decoupling of the US from security on the peninsula. The South Koreans have long worried that the development of a North Korean ICBM capability would make Washington more hesitant to come to the South\u2019s aid in any possible nuclear showdown with the North. Seeing the capability begin to unfold now will probably stiffen the sinews of those in Seoul who believe the country needs to look more to its own strategic resources for the long-term future.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a gloomy picture, I know. Let me add just one more thought to make it a little gloomier: time is not on our side.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s latest provocation\u2014a successful test of an intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM)\u2014brings the long-building crisis on the Korean peninsula to a dangerous flashpoint. For one thing, it\u2019s clear evidence that North Korea aspires not merely …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":32723,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1647,86,356],"class_list":["post-32722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-ballistic-missile","tag-north-korea","tag-nuclear-weapons"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNorth Korea: the plot thickens | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/north-korea-plot-thickens\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"North Korea: the plot thickens | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"North Korea\u2019s latest provocation\u2014a successful test of an intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM)\u2014brings the long-building crisis on the Korean peninsula to a dangerous flashpoint. 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