{"id":33374,"date":"2017-08-07T06:00:23","date_gmt":"2017-08-06T20:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=33374"},"modified":"2017-08-04T17:34:57","modified_gmt":"2017-08-04T07:34:57","slug":"donald-dichotomy-us-leadership-without-leader","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/donald-dichotomy-us-leadership-without-leader\/","title":{"rendered":"The Donald dichotomy: US leadership without the leader"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Donald Trump has caused a profound shift in the way Canberra thinks about a US leader, but not yet about US leadership. Call this The Donald dichotomy.<\/p>\n

Australia confronts an \u2018America First\u2019 president who is sceptical of alliances and the international economic system America created. Canberra is shaken by The Donald view of alliances as lousy, zero-sum deals (America spends the dollars for zero return from allies) and Trump\u2019s protectionist\/mercantilist economic instincts.<\/p>\n

Australia seeks to Trump-proof the alliance. The art of the effort\u2014and the discipline in its execution\u2014is to lavish praise on the US while saying nothing negative about Donald Trump: stress US leadership, yet downplay the US leader. Try to love American leadership while ignoring the 45th president.<\/p>\n

The strains in the dichotomy are obvious. How do you get US leadership without also getting The Donald?<\/p>\n

Two months ago (a couple of lifetimes in Trump world), I said \u2018shock and awe\u2019<\/a> was too grandiose a term for the Trump effect in Canberra. \u2018Shake and appal\u2019 better caught the feeling. Discard these as distinctions without a difference. Trump keeps trumping himself. Whether its shake or shock, appal or awe, the amazement mounts.<\/p>\n

As an expression of Canberra\u2019s astonishment, see Peter Jennings\u2019 post<\/a> from last Wednesday. Occasionally, a good policy wonk with a fine writing style just has to let rip on the keyboard. Hear the roar. Feel the passion. Here\u2019s a taste of the jeremiad of Jennings:<\/p>\n

The White House, with its weird collection of spivs, neophytes, generals attempting to do politics, bug-eyed ideologues and family retainers, is more dysfunctional than a pack of preschoolers gone hyper on red snakes. As for America\u2019s role in the world, it doesn\u2019t matter that the adults in Cabinet try to assure allies that everything is okay, because the president has shown a daily ability to sow doubt and despair into the hearts of friends and foes alike.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As Peter began re-entry, he observed: \u2018It\u2019s hard to lead the free world when you are a figure of fun.\u2019 Amen to that as a pithy expression of the dilemma.<\/p>\n

After six months of The Donald dichotomy, Canberra seeks whatever smarts it can get out of Washington, while refusing to comment on great swathes of what Washington\u2019s leader says and does. This is improvised tactic masquerading as strategy, and for the moment the tactic is half working.<\/p>\n

Australia will treat Trump as a highly abnormal element in the \u2018new normal\u2019 of international affairs\u2014and look for whatever normality it can get from the rest of the Washington system.<\/p>\n

Even before Trump, the new normal involved big shifts from the old normal. At various points in the coming months and years, the world is going to have to incorporate elements of Donald Trump into the new normal; although, if the rest of Trump\u2019s presidency resembles his first six months, it\u2019ll be chemistry (or alchemy) of the highest order. We have a long three and a half years still to come, folks.<\/p>\n

A major tectonic element of the new normal is the long-term decline in US relative power. Stress that word relative<\/em>. Whatever The Donald might think, America is still on top. It\u2019s just that lots of others are getting bigger and stronger at a faster rate. Relative decline was chugging quietly this century until the Great Recession<\/a> smashed America. Now, Trump\u2019s quest for greatness will, instead, deliver a self-inflicted erosion of US international influence. Trump is a symptom of America\u2019s relative decline with the potential to hasten the trend.<\/p>\n

A summary of how the Canberra polity views the new normal is in the first chapter on \u2018the strategic environment\u2019 in the 2017 Independent Intelligence Review<\/a>. The report judges: \u2018The global strategic influence of the United States has declined in relative terms and that trajectory is set to continue.\u2019 The review sees:<\/p>\n

1. Fundamental changes in the international system:<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2018The trend in the global balance of wealth and power is favouring China and India. The Western ascendancy in international institutions and values that characterised the second half of the twentieth century, and the early years of the twenty-first century, is eroding.\u2019 Power politics remains important. Rivalry and competition between states \u2018will become more accentuated over coming years\u2019.<\/p>\n

2. Extremism with global reach:<\/em><\/p>\n

Globalisation accelerates the movement of people, goods, money and ideas; the dark side of these positive trends is \u2018the illegal and destabilising transfer of goods, money, weapons and people. This has broadened the potential for extremism, sectarian fundamentalism, radicalisation and terrorism to take root and have their destructive impact.\u2019<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0The security consequences of accelerating technological change:<\/em><\/p>\n

Disruptive technological innovation places \u2018enormously destructive capabilities within easier reach of rogue states and non-state actors. This trend is not reversible and it will lead to an even more threatening international environment than now exists.\u2019<\/p>\n

In line with current Canberra preference, the review doesn\u2019t once mention The Donald. Perhaps that\u2019s fair enough in a review of intelligence. Boom-tish! [Pauses for laughs.] Not a sausage …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump has caused a profound shift in the way Canberra thinks about a US leader, but not yet about US leadership. Call this The Donald dichotomy. Australia confronts an \u2018America First\u2019 president who is …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":33387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,181,31],"class_list":["post-33374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-international-order","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Donald dichotomy: US leadership without the leader | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/donald-dichotomy-us-leadership-without-leader\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Donald dichotomy: US leadership without the leader | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump has caused a profound shift in the way Canberra thinks about a US leader, but not yet about US leadership. 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