{"id":33532,"date":"2017-08-14T11:00:47","date_gmt":"2017-08-14T01:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=33532"},"modified":"2017-08-14T10:47:39","modified_gmt":"2017-08-14T00:47:39","slug":"calling-chinese-bullys-bluff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/calling-chinese-bullys-bluff\/","title":{"rendered":"Calling the Chinese bully\u2019s bluff"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The more power China has accumulated, the more it has attempted to achieve its foreign-policy objectives with bluff, bluster, and bullying. But, as its Himalayan border standoff with India\u2019s military continues, the limits of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent.<\/p>\n

The current standoff began in mid-June, when Bhutan, a close ally of India, discovered the People\u2019s Liberation Army trying to extend a road through Doklam, a high-altitude plateau in the Himalayas that belongs to Bhutan, but is claimed by China. India, which guarantees tiny Bhutan\u2019s security<\/a>, quickly sent troops and equipment to halt the construction, asserting that the road\u2014which would overlook the point where Tibet, Bhutan, and the Indian state of Sikkim meet\u2014threatened<\/a> its own security.<\/p>\n

Since then, China\u2019s leaders have been warning India almost daily to back down or face military reprisals. China\u2019s defence ministry has threatened to teach India a \u2018bitter lesson\u2019, vowing that any conflict would inflict \u2018greater losses\u2019 than the Sino-Indian War of 1962, when China invaded India during a Himalayan border dispute and inflicted major damage within a few weeks. Likewise, China\u2019s foreign ministry has unleashed a torrent of vitriol intended to intimidate India into submission.<\/p>\n

Despite all of this, India\u2019s government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has kept its cool, refusing to respond to any Chinese threat, much less withdraw its forces. As China\u2019s warmongering has continued, its true colors have become increasingly vivid. It is now clear that China is attempting to use psychological warfare (\u2018psywar\u2019) to advance its strategic objectives\u2014to \u2018win without fighting\u2019, as the ancient Chinese military theorist Sun Tzu recommended.<\/p>\n

China has waged its psywar against India largely through disinformation campaigns and media manipulation, aimed at presenting India\u2014a raucous democracy with poor public diplomacy\u2014as the aggressor and China as the aggrieved party. Chinese state media have been engaged in eager India-bashing<\/a> for weeks. China has also employed \u2018lawfare\u2019, selectively invoking a colonial-era accord<\/a>, while ignoring its own violations\u2014cited by Bhutan<\/a> and India<\/a>\u2014of more recent bilateral agreements.<\/p>\n

For the first few days of the standoff, China\u2019s psywar blitz helped it dominate the narrative. But, as China\u2019s claims and tactics have come under growing scrutiny, its approach has faced diminishing returns. In fact, from a domestic perspective, China\u2019s attempts to portray itself as the victim\u2014claiming<\/a> that Indian troops had illegally entered Chinese territory, where they remain\u2014has been distinctly damaging, provoking a nationalist backlash<\/a> over the failure to evict the intruders.<\/p>\n

As a result, President Xi Jinping\u2019s image as a commanding leader, along with the presumption of China\u2019s regional dominance, is coming under strain, just months before the critical 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. And it is difficult to see how Xi could turn the situation around.<\/p>\n

Despite China\u2019s overall military superiority, it is scarcely in a position to defeat India decisively in a Himalayan war, given India\u2019s fortified defences along the border. Even localised hostilities at the tri-border area would be beyond China\u2019s capacity to dominate, because the Indian army controls higher terrain and has greater troop density. If such military clashes left China with so much as a bloodied nose, as happened in the same area in 1967, it could spell serious trouble for Xi at the upcoming National Congress.<\/p>\n

But, even without actual conflict, China stands to lose. Its confrontational approach could drive India, Asia\u2019s most important geopolitical \u2018swing state\u2019, firmly into the camp of the United States, China\u2019s main global rival. It could also undermine its own commercial interests in the world\u2019s fastest-growing major economy, which sits astride China\u2019s energy-import lifeline.<\/p>\n

Already, Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj has tacitly warned<\/a> of economic sanctions if China, which is running an annual trade surplus of nearly $60 billion with India, continues to disturb border peace. More broadly, as China has declared<\/a> unconditional Indian troop withdrawal to be a \u2018prerequisite\u2019 for ending the standoff, India, facing recurrent Chinese incursions over the last decade, has insisted<\/a> that border peace is a \u2018prerequisite\u2019 for developing bilateral ties.<\/p>\n

Against this background, the smartest move for Xi would be to attempt to secure India\u2019s help in finding a face-saving compromise to end the crisis. The longer the standoff lasts, the more likely it is to sully Xi\u2019s carefully cultivated image as a powerful leader, and that of China as Asia\u2019s hegemon, which would undermine popular support for the regime at home and severely weaken China\u2019s influence over its neighbours.<\/p>\n

Already, the standoff is offering important lessons to other Asian countries seeking to cope with China\u2019s bullying. For example, China recently threatened<\/a> to launch military action against Vietnam\u2019s outposts in the disputed Spratly Islands, forcing the Vietnamese government to stop drilling for gas at the edge of China\u2019s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

China does not yet appear ready to change its approach. Some experts even predict<\/a> that it will soon move forward with a \u2018small-scale military operation\u2019 to expel the Indian troops currently in its claimed territory. But such an attack is unlikely to do China any good, much less change the territorial status quo in the tri-border area. It certainly won\u2019t make it possible for China to resume work on the road it wanted to build. That dream most likely died when India called the Chinese bully\u2019s bluff.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The more power China has accumulated, the more it has attempted to achieve its foreign-policy objectives with bluff, bluster, and bullying. 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